Casey Kasem's '70s and '80s countdown lover. FLY NAVY! '89 VF-2 Bounty Hunters!
Huntington Beach, CA
Joined March 2013
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Question to all the Israel haters - Your position seems to be they control our leaders to egg us into war with Iran. Using your logic, what then happens when the regime falls and Iran turns more westernized like pre '79? Seems like a good thing to fight for.
$DFH I feel like I should send a commission check to 'bear cave' for nuking this stock last week allowing me to enter that position. I'm up 12k in a week on this thing and I almost feel guilty because I know is that somebody else's expense
$SPX - Wow. Look at that symmetry. Stop using indicators and just focusing on support and resistance lines and once you start drawing lines all over the place, it becomes so obvious what the computers are doing and why.
'Blue Horseshoe Love $DFH' - and so does ChatGPT...
According to ChatGPT-
—My DFH valuation if the 10-year falls below 5%
The deal's headline numbers are meaningful: the combined builder generated approximately $6.35 billion in 2025 homebuilding revenue, with 12,828 closings. Management expects more than $100 million in annual cost synergies and double-digit percentage EPS accretion in the first full year.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc.
+1
But there is a catch: DFH is taking on substantial financing. Its August pro forma plan contemplated roughly $1.3 billion in senior notes and $675 million in redeemable preferred stock after the transaction-related financing. That capital structure could limit how much of the improved operating earnings flow through to common shareholders.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc.
Here is the valuation framework I would use for a potential recovery.
Illustrative values, not company guidance or a verified analyst consensus. Assumes the market begins valuing DFH on forward earnings from the combined company.
ScenarioForward EPS assumptionP/E multipleImplied DFH price
Bear case$1.508×$12
Base recovery$2.0010×$20
Strong recovery$2.5012×$30
Bull case$3.0014×$42
These are sensitivity scenarios, not claims that DFH will earn those exact amounts. The actual EPS needs to reflect acquisition financing costs, preferred dividends, integration costs, and the timing of synergies.
$MSTR - It's really THIS simple - It broke it's falling wedge in Sep, and is currently retracing the breakout. As long as it stays over the upper trend, 👍 Risk I think mid $120s. But if it breaks back into it, then 👎. Value wise, as long as $BTC stays over their basis around $75kish, $MSTR's value grows exponentially, unlike any other company out there. It's really an amazing feat Saylor has pulled off here. That is, if it works out that way. So far so good.
$SPX $QQQ - I'd like to remind every trader freaking out that 'bull markets are born in Oct'. And my previous post showing the internal breadth is backing that up. The wind up is in process to new highs. And as I also pointed out this morning, the GOAT Larry Williams said cycles point to a bottom between today and Tues. Don't get left behind.
