Financial market historian and author. Former FinTech CEO, hedge fund CIO and Managing Director at Deutsche and Lehman. https://nitter.gq/t.co/U9nHwnGDIE
Various
Joined April 2012
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John Butler retweeted
If the central bank just funds deficits at below market rates to hit a GDP target, then drop the charade.
Butler's warning: that puts you on a slippery slope to central planning beyond even what we saw after 2008.
Is honesty about the system worth that risk?
John Butler retweeted
The forgotten near-depression of 1920.
The market crashed hard and Warren Harding, instead of bailing everyone out, slashed the budget and let deflation run. What followed was the Roaring Twenties.
Is this the playbook we abandoned?
John Butler retweeted
Check out my chat with @ButlerGoldRevo about the Polish Constitutional Crisis and the ramifications for Polish gold and the zloty - plus why Aesopian traditions may be making a comeback. Link to full vid in reply.
John Butler retweeted
I was reminded today of the odd public exchange that occurred between Nawrocki and Tusk on Sept 18. I wrote about it in my daily Blind Spot linkfest email at the time...(link in self reply post, and have put it outside the paywall).
Given what's happened since, I think it's fair to speculate that my hunch that they were drawing on Poland's Aesopian communication tradition (mowa ezopowa) might have some substance.
I suspect most geopolitical commentators are unaware of this tradition. Yet, given the path we're going down, it's probably worth familiarising yourself with the concept.
I will be discussing all this and more (notably the implications of the constitutional crisis for the zloty and Poland's gold holdings) at 1pm UK time today with @ButlerGoldRevo.
Join me for the session here:
open.substack.com/live-strea…
John Butler retweeted
Are we currently in MMT purgatory?
And if so, where do we go from here?
Check out the debate and write-up below. 👇
@ButlerGoldRevo
@TATakeAwayShow
transatlantictakeaway.com/p/…
John Butler retweeted
Debt goes from 120 percent of GDP to 1.2 percent, and nobody cares anymore.
Butler's point: the nominal debt never falls, but devalue enough and the ratio becomes a non-issue. That is inflationary, not deflationary.
Is inflating it away the plan?
John Butler retweeted
Check out the latest episode of @TATakeAwayShow where @ButlerGoldRevo and I take on the topic of MMT.
Regardless of which side one comes down on...the topic is always ripe for debate. 👇
Has the West quietly already implemented MMT, or are we stuck halfway?
Brent: the system runs on spend-first mechanics now, and that can last far longer than hard-money types expect.
John: even if MMT describes the plumbing, making it explicit removes the last constraints on government and starts us down a central-planning slide.
Purgatory, or the slope? Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Can a country run twin deficits for decades and still have a strong currency? The dollar has, and that is the puzzle this episode fights over.
Brent: the dollar is backed by debt now, and the $115T eurodollar system means demand for dollars abroad is the trap no one can escape yet.
John: fiscal dominance, endless sanctions and the twin deficits are quietly poisoning that same demand.
Overplayed hand or decades left to run? Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Can a country run twin deficits for decades and still have a strong currency? The dollar has, and that is the puzzle this episode fights over.
Brent: the dollar is backed by debt now, and the $115T eurodollar system means demand for dollars abroad is the trap no one can escape yet.
John: fiscal dominance, endless sanctions and the twin deficits are quietly poisoning that same demand.
Overplayed hand or decades left to run? Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
@grok @elonmusk @FmrRepMTG @RepThomasMassie @brianglenntv @SantiagoAuFund @joekent16jan19 @TuckerCarlson @stephenasmith @RepLouCorrea
@ButlerGoldRevo
Energy is money, and money is energy. It's America's direction now and the future.
The discourse was awesome, I learned more about the EU and agreed with the assessment👍👍👍🙏🙏🔥🔥🔥
The U.K. and EU need to support free speech and look for energy if they want to hang with America. If they don't, it will be a very painful headwind.... at the very lease lolz😁😁
Let's say that Poland and Germany befriend with Russia. America will be OK. America will still be asking Hungary, Austria, and even Ukraine to join America. America will ask many other nations to join America. This train is coming and is not stopping. Other nations can do whatever they want.
Those who join America will benefit greatly. Those who do not will see a heavy, fast approaching train.
No, we will not run them over🤣🤣🤣🤣😁😁😝😜😜. We will hit the brake. However, the train is heavy and fast, it might not stop on time.......so please forgive...😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😂😂😂😂🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
AmericaFirst, greatest Empire of Liberty😜😇
Europe Is Broke, Angry and Out of Energy.
John Butler says the wounds are self-inflicted: net zero, lost Russian gas, 20 years of no per capita growth, and a euro system cracking at Target 2, with France and Germany both turning into sick men.
Brent Johnson says the real driver isn't economics, it's geopolitics: defense, energy and the special relationship under strain, and the outcome decided by alignment, not balance sheets.
Reform catalyst or slow blowup. Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Europe now gets 63% of its LNG from the United States.
Brent's read: in any US-Europe standoff, that one number means Washington holds the upper hand short term.
Does energy dependence settle the argument?
Full episode pinned to our profile
John Butler retweeted
Europe Is Broke, Angry and Out of Energy.
John Butler says the wounds are self-inflicted: net zero, lost Russian gas, 20 years of no per capita growth, and a euro system cracking at Target 2, with France and Germany both turning into sick men.
Brent Johnson says the real driver isn't economics, it's geopolitics: defense, energy and the special relationship under strain, and the outcome decided by alignment, not balance sheets.
Reform catalyst or slow blowup. Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Have started a new project with my friends @ButlerGoldRevo and @Genemorris007 that can be found at @TATakeAwayShow
We hope you will find this as fun, interesting, and valuable as we do. For more details, check out the introductory video below. 👇
youtube.com/watch?v=aLLjsTOn…
John Butler retweeted
I would definitely prefer #CAKE to a #CELINEDIONCONCERT :-)
John Butler retweeted
Latest interview with @ButlerGoldRevo on why the US bond market may be entering a dangerous new phase and why gold is rising alongside real yields.
We also discuss whether China could eventually challenge the dollar with gold-backed bonds or a gold-linked renminbi.
Full interview below 👇
John Butler retweeted
The solution to misallocated capital? 🤔
A short recession, says @ButlerGoldRevo.
John Butler retweeted
@ButlerGoldRevo says many people expected disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz to show up immediately in prices, but he believes the bigger impact hasn’t arrived yet.
He explains that the real risk is fertilizer reaching farms too late for seasonal application. If farmers don’t receive it in the right quantities, in the right places and at the right time, crop yields become “significantly lower.” That’s why Butler warns, “Next year’s harvest will be a disaster even if the war ends tomorrow.”
Watch the full conversation on The Real Story with @MichelleMakori: youtube.com/watch?v=imQXOefp…
John Butler retweeted
“Next year’s harvest… will be a disaster even if the war ends tomorrow.” @ButlerGoldRevo warns that depleted fertilizer inventories could trigger a global food shock, double-digit inflation and a financial crisis comparable to 2008.
And if the system begins to seize up, he says gold could reach $40,000 within five years – a forecast he calls “conservative.”
Watch the full interview on The Real Story with @MichelleMakori:
youtube.com/watch?v=imQXOefp…