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How much room is there for cash cattle prices to move? With packer margins near breakeven, the boxed beef cutout will play a critical role in determining what packers can afford to pay. At a $365 cutout, cash cattle at $215 generates roughly breakeven margins, while $225 pushes margins near -$80/head. A stronger cutout could support higher cash prices, but continued weakness would tighten packer buying power.

As packer margins improved, fed slaughter increased, narrowing the gap with year-ago levels. But that profitability has quickly disappeared. Estimated packer margins have fallen $215/head over the past month, from +$217 to just +$2, as boxed beef values weakened and cash cattle prices increased. Will packers maintain higher slaughter rates, or will tightening margins lead to another pullback in production? #cattle #beef #margin

Feeder Cattle Index +$2.2 CIH Est: $350.75; Previous: $348.55 4,092 head dropping off (24% of index); 4,183 head traded (25%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

🇲🇽🐂 Another Mexican cattle port is back online! With Columbus now reporting crossings, all three ports contributed to Monday's 3,000-head total: 📍 Douglas: 1,450 head 📍 Santa Teresa: 900 head 📍 Columbus: 650 head The key question now: How quickly will volumes ramp up, and what impact will that have on U.S. feeder cattle supplies and basis? #feeders #cattle #imports

🗺️ The slowdown in feedlot placements isn't isolated to one state. Over the last three months, 9 of 11 reporting states placed fewer cattle than a year ago. 📉 South Dakota: -22% 📉 Colorado: -19% 📉 Nebraska: -15% 📉 Kansas: -10% 📉 Texas: -8% #cattle #beef #CattleOnFeed

Feeder Cattle Index +$3.46 CIH Est: $348.55; Previous: $345.09 7,207 head dropping off (36% of index); 3,992 head traded (24%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

📉 Feedlot placements are running at their lowest levels in 31 years. Through September, just 14.69 million cattle entered US feedlots — down 872K head (-5.6%) from last year. That's even below the previous low set in 2015. Fewer cattle entering feedlots today points to tighter fed cattle supplies in the months ahead. 🐂

🥩 Boxed Beef | A Shift in Year-Over-Year Values Choice cutout values have moved below year-ago levels, currently down $7.37/cwt. The breakdown tells a more interesting story: 🟢 Rib and chuck remain above last year's contribution levels. 🔴 Round and loin account for the largest declines. The weakness in the overall cutout isn't uniform across the carcass. #boxedbeef #cattle

🐂 🇲🇽 Mexican Feeder Cattle | Another Weekly High Mexican feeder cattle crossings reached 10,150 head this week, marking another new weekly high since the border reopened. 📊 Douglas: 5,200 head 📊 Santa Teresa: 4,950 head Daily crossings exceeded 2,000 head Tuesday through Friday, with both ports contributing to the growing flow of feeder cattle into the U.S. #cattle #feeders #imports

The big surprise in today's Cattle on Feed report? Placements. September placements were down 12.1% YoY, compared with expectations for an 8.3% decline. Meanwhile, marketings came in stronger than expected. Fewer cattle going in, more cattle coming out. A supportive combination for future fed cattle supplies. 🐂 #Cattle #Beef #CattleOnFeed

🐂 What a shift in feeder cattle basis! This summer, feeder futures were trading at substantial discounts to the cash index across the curve. Since then, those discounts have narrowed dramatically, with nearby futures now trading near or above cash. The market has gone from pricing substantial discounts to cash to a much tighter relationship. What a difference a few months makes!

📊 Shifting leverage in the cattle market? Packer margins have fallen $80/head in just one week, to +$94/head. Meanwhile: 🐂 Cash cattle: +$2/cwt 🥩 Choice cutout: −$5/cwt 📈 Cash/cutout ratio: 58.6% → 60.8% over the past month Is leverage starting to shift back toward cattle feeders?

Feeder Cattle Index +$1.52 CIH Est: $345.09; Previous: $343.57 3,083 head dropping off (16% of index); 3,528 head traded (18%) For Monday's print, 7.2k head will drop off at $337.80 (37% of the index and lowest prices in the index) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Choice Cutout -$3.13/cwt DoD to $369.60 All primals except Plate down DoD - largest decline from Loins Bnls Strip Loin down 2.7% WoW but still 2% higher YoY 81% and 73% GB were down 5-7% DoD. 73's now running 24% lower YoY #cutout #beef #cattle

🐂 The U.S. beef cow herd is 4 million head below its 2019 peak. But we don't need all 4 million back. 🥩 In 2019, cattle dressed 813 lbs. Today they're near 900 lbs. 📊 At today's carcass weights, matching 2019 production takes just 28.6M cows — not 31.7M. 🎯 The real gap? ~1 million head. 📩 Want the full breakdown and implications for herd expansion? Reach out to the CIH Cattle Team. ([email protected]) #cattle #expansion #beef

Feeder Cattle Index Projection Note: CME has not posted 10/20 yet, below included both 10/20 and 10/21 trades. Feeder Cattle Index +$1.41 CIH Est: $343.57; Previous: $342.16 6,300 head dropping off (31% of index); 4,876 head traded (25%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Choice Cutout -$0.71/cwt DoD to $372.73 - now down $3.90 WoW Round and Loins down the most DoD, while Chucks and Ribs holding the cutout flat YoY 50's trim back below $90 - down 40% YoY 73% GB down 20% WoW #cutout #beef #cattle

Feeder Cattle Index +$0.62 CIH Est: $342.78; Previous: $342.16 2,802 head dropping off (13% of index); 1,624 head traded (8%) #ag #cattle #feedercattle

Cattle Feeding Economics Improving? 🐂 Live cattle futures have started creeping above projected feeding breakevens for spring 2027. Meanwhile, LRP coverage prices are already above breakevens: • Mar: $240 coverage vs. $231 BE (+$9/cwt) • Apr: $241 coverage vs. $232 BE (+$9/cwt) • May: $242 coverage vs. $233 BE (+$9/cwt) Improving opportunities to protect feeding margins as we move into 2027. #Cattle #LRP #RiskManagement

🐂 Is cash cattle finding its footing? 5 Area cash +$4.10 WoW to $224/cwt, recovering from September lows. At May highs, cash approached 68% of Choice cutout — an unusually strong position for cattle feeders. 🥩 Can choice cutout revisit $390? Can leverage shift back toward cattle feeders? Start of another cash rally or a temporary top?