👇 In my new piece published today for @CIPolicy, I examine the dangerous stalemate between the US and Iran, the options facing Trump, and why another major round of fighting could prove even more disastrous. Both sides are currently locked in a costly war of attrition. Washington is maintaining its blockade, hoping economic pressure will force Iran to lopsided concessions or collapse. Tehran, meanwhile, continues to restrict and attack shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing mounting costs on the US, its allies, and the global economy. Neither side is backing down. So what happens next? Trump could maintain the blockade, betting that the balance of pressure favors Washington and that Iran will eventually buckle or collapse. Or he could launch another major military offensive, hoping to inflict enough damage to force Tehran to surrender its nuclear stockpile and give up the lasting leverage it seeks over Hormuz. But further attacks are likely to badly backfire. The wars of 2025 and 2026 have fundamentally changed Tehran's strategic thinking. Iranian leaders now believe their previous relative restraint only invited more attacks, and that deterring more aggression requires imposing gradually increased and sustained costs on the US and its allies. Another major US attack is therefore unlikely to force Iran to surrender. Instead, Tehran is likely to intensify its attacks on shipping and regional energy infrastructure, further driving up oil prices, disrupting global markets, and making the war even costlier for Washington. Trump could also try to declare victory and walk away, perhaps after one final, largely symbolic strike. But even then, Iran would likely retaliate disproportionately rather than absorb another attack and risk signalling weakness and inviting further aggression down the road. The alternative is a negotiated compromise, with meaningful concessions from both sides on sanctions, Hormuz transit, and the nuclear issue. The central danger is that Washington continues to believe more pressure will eventually force Tehran to yield, when the war has actually made Iran more determined to resist coercion and impose costs, even as it remains open to reciprocal compromise. Link to the full piece (no paywall): internationalpolicy.org/publ…