CJ

Token prices are down 58% since July while GPU rents are up 17–106%. Cheaper intelligence is driving usage growth that outpaces efficiency gains, so demand for compute rises even as the price of each token falls, and with supply constrained by power and allocation, that demand shows up as pricing power for whoever owns the GPUs, not whoever resells the tokens. $NBIS

The bottom is close, if not in already.

Long $MRVL for about two years, with $LITE as a satellite position. Today Marvell announced a $115B all-stock deal for Lumentum: a 24% premium, Marvell holders keep ~67% of the combined company. Why it strengthens the thesis: AI clusters are increasingly bottlenecked by optics, not compute. Marvell owns the DSPs and custom silicon on the electrical side; Lumentum owns the lasers and transceiver components on the optical side. One company now sells both halves of the interconnect, which matters as co-packaged optics moves from roadmap to volume. The cost: ~33% dilution and a photonics manufacturing business to integrate. Worth it in my view, but it’s a bigger, more complex Marvell than the one I bought. Two of my favourite connectivity/photonics names, now one.

Posted a long and detailed walkthourgh of last weeks earnings and the blood bath that followed. The video can be found at georgekoutalidis.com

Cause it’s impossible to miss a ball using this racket. Funnily enough, it’s a fully functioning racket. Thanks to @babolat for this gift 🙏

Anthropic’s updated S-1 just strengthened my conviction in $NBIS and AI infrastructure. Three numbers explain why: • Q3 revenue: $16.96 BILLION, up 47% quarter over quarter. • Compute and infrastructure expense: $9.86 BILLION, up 77%. • Short-term compute spending: $5 BILLION in a single quarter. That last number deserves attention. Anthropic says short-term compute costs significantly more than comparable capacity secured through multi-year agreements. It also expects its use of short-term compute to increase in the near term. One of the largest buyers of AI infrastructure is telling us it needs additional capacity badly enough to pay a substantial premium. For an infrastructure investor, that is powerful evidence of the value of available compute. This is why I remain bullish on Nebius. Nebius has already described premium opportunities in short-duration capacity contracts, alongside longer-term agreements that help finance expansion. Anthropic’s disclosures strengthen the market-demand argument behind that strategy. The connection here is industry economics; this filing does not establish an Anthropic–Nebius contract. And the opportunity extends beyond today’s premium pricing. Anthropic is committing enormous sums to dedicated infrastructure because it expects to need compute for years. As that capacity arrives, the winners will need reliable deployments, efficient operations, strong software and disciplined financing. That is the combination I’m backing in Nebius. Scarcity premiums will fluctuate. Execution will matter. But when AI adoption is growing this quickly and buyers are spending billions to secure additional compute, my conviction in the infrastructure opportunity gets stronger. I remain firmly bullish on $NBIS.

$NBIS just removed the price ceiling on spot GPUs. Preemptible capacity can now trade above on-demand. A preemptible VM is a worse product than on-demand. It can be reclaimed at any time. Nobody pays a premium for the worse product unless the better one is sold out. The sequence tells you why this happened: Oct 1: on-demand prices raised 17-21%. B300 to $9.50/hr Oct 8: fixed preemptible discount replaced by a live spot auction, capped at 1 cent below on-demand Oct 21: prices published via open API Nov 2: cap removed You do not remove a ceiling nobody is hitting. Pull the API yourself: B300 spot in eu-west2 and uk-south1 is $9.49/hr. That is the cap, pinned. The auction was already trying to clear higher and the only thing stopping it was a rule. Today they deleted the rule. My read: the “keep capacity out of long-term contracts and let the market price it” posture I have been describing for months is now visible in a price feed. The marginal Blackwell hour has a live quote. Watch where B300 settles this week.