C. Lee 🇳🇿🇨🇦🇺🇦

Putin wore his high heels for the meeting with the President of Mozambique Daniel Chapo during the 8th Summit of Gas Exporting Countries Forum yesterday.

When negotiating with Russia, it is important to remember that Russia seeks to continue the war. Putin will therefore use any negotiations as a tool to prolong and legitimise its aggression. This does not mean that diplomacy is unnecessary. It is essential, and Europe must be part of it. Europe must be at the table when European security is being discussed. European leaders Stubb and Støre held a preliminary conversation with Putin, conveyed Ukraine’s position and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. According to Ushakov, Stubb and Støre conveyed Zelenskyy’s wish to meet Putin. In response, Putin suggested that the Ukrainian president come to Moscow. According to the Financial Times, Putin devoted much of the call to the history of the Slavs; an immediate ceasefire was barely discussed. Whereas the United States previously presented a united front with Europe, economic agreements between Washington and Moscow — both those already reached and those planned — are now creating favourable conditions for Russia to continue the war. According to industry sources cited by Reuters, after Ukraine halted strikes on Russian oil refineries at Washington’s insistence, Russian crude processing increased by approximately 25% in the second half of October. Some export capacity was also restored. Russia is earning revenue, restoring production and drawing in commercial interests with a stake in maintaining trade. Ukraine’s dependence on American technology makes it easier to pressure Kyiv over its military decisions. On 15 October, Reuters reported, citing officials, that the order to restrict Starshield had come from the White House. The restrictions hampered Ukrainian operations, including the interception of Russian drones; on 24 October, Kyiv reported that the system was once again operating at the required speeds. This dependence gives Washington leverage to influence Ukraine’s actions in the Kremlin’s favour. Does Putin see Europe’s negotiators as a centre of power? So far, it appears that he does not, and that Russia plans to continue limiting Europe’s role in agreements on the architecture of European security. Europe’s limited participation leaves Moscow room to strike deals with Washington. The European Commission said that representatives of both the Commission and the European Council were expected to participate in the talks. Peskov insisted on a trilateral format for the meeting in Abu Dhabi, involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States. Kyiv could no longer confirm the meeting between Ukraine, the United States, the EU and NATO planned for 27–28 October in Brussels because of changes to American plans. Europeans therefore remain outside the decision-making process for now. Keeping negotiations going serves Russia’s strategy of protracted war. New meetings, humanitarian arrangements and agreements in specific areas sustain expectations of peace while allowing Russia to extract concessions incrementally. Russia’s demands remain unchanged, Ukraine’s resources are being depleted, and the Kremlin shifts responsibility for the failure to reach an overall agreement onto Kyiv and the Europeans. European diplomacy can constrain this strategy only through concrete decisions and support for Ukraine. What will matter is secured funding, military supplies, the preservation of Ukraine’s capabilities and stronger economic pressure on Russia. Without these decisions, the negotiating process will help the Kremlin replenish its resources for further aggression.