don’t listen to me I’m retarded
Joined August 2012
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lil retard retweeted
open your competitor's homepage. right click. view page source. ctrl+f "GTM-"
that's their google tag manager ID. copy it
now paste this into your browser: googletagmanager. com/gtm.js?id= and add their ID on the end
a wall of code opens. it's public. it has to be, every visitor's browser downloads it. it's the file that runs their entire tracking setup
now ctrl+f "AW-"
every google ads conversion they track. if tere are 6 of them, they're optimising for 6 different things. most teams can't even tell you which one matters
now ctrl+f "event"
their conversion names, typed by their own marketers. "demo_booked." "trial_started." "sql_qualified." you're reading their funnel in the order they built it
now ctrl+f "value"
sometimes a number sits right next to the conversion. 250. 800. 1500. that's what a demo is worth to them. they typed their unit economics into a public file
now combine all four:
-the GTM ID gets you into the container
-AW- tells you how many things google is chasing for them
-the event names give you their funnel
-the values give you what each step is worth
their tracking, their funnel and their numbers. from one file they can't hide. every head of growth reading this just opened their own container
now take their demo value. if they pay $800 for a demo and you know yours is worth $2,000, you can outbid them on every keyword you both want and still win
(9 years inside google. tracking is the first thing we open on every audit → link in bio)
lil retard retweeted
I think we are already cooked. The results of Opus 5.5 is insane.
Everything I’ve posted lately was made with a tool I’ve been quietly building.
Today it’s public: aligncanvas.com beta is live.
Turn your images into 3D motion in a few clicks. Nothing to install, and your images never leave your device. It all runs in your browser.
lil retard retweeted
I asked my agent to build a collection of our favorite designers, called Deimos. Each article was written through multiple rounds of discussion and refinement between different models.
deimos.evilrabbit.com/
lil retard retweeted
If you design with AI, this is all you need
1. studio.motionsites.ai — cheaper than lovable
2. motionsites.ai — premium website prompts: 800+ 3d websites, motion sections. Paste into Claude, ship.
3. land-book.com — landing page inspiration done right.
4. recent.design— cool gallery for web design inspo
5. landdding.com — top notch landings
6. fontinlogo.com — fonts behind brands
7. godly.website — award websites
8. 60fps.design — mobile UI animations
save these for your next project
Ouch
$SHOP Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue $3.74B vs Est. $3.75B
• EPS $0.49 vs. Est. $0.46
• FCF $816M vs. Est. $721M
• GMV $119.2B vs Est. $118.7B
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue +32% vs Est. +30%
lil retard retweeted
Fun fact, at a $1.5TRN Anthropic IPO price, FTX's $500M from the 2022 Series B would be worth $39B. Ouch.
lil retard retweeted
Looks like Saylor is gonna be a problem again
* sep '27 he owes $1B if he can't get MSTR above $183
* mar '28 he owes $2B if he can't get MSTR above $433
* jun '28 he owes $1.5B if he can't get MSTR above $672
* then there's another $2B+ in potential payments out to jun '29
^ Assuming he cannot recover the share price, MSTR will be out of cash by March of '28. But even worse, they're only 5 months away from having less than the 12 months cash in reserve they promised to maintain earlier this year. *expect them to charitably interpret their USD reserve policy moving forward
> So why assume he can't get the share price where it needs to be?
Honestly maybe he gets bailed out by Bitcoin on his upcoming September converts. But keep in mind Microstrategy has had negative Bitcoin yield this year. BTC per share is down 3.7% this year. Common holders are getting brutally diluted and market stress makes this worse (BTC yield was -11% in Q3 alone). With this class of management, I do not see how Saylor convinces anybody Microstrategy should trade at a premium to Bitcoin - which means to get MSTR up ~40% to $183, you're going to need to see Bitcoin well above ~$107k. Getting this pig back to $433 then $672 for the two following converts seems essentially impossible to me unless Bitcoin goes on a sun run.
> So can't he raise more cash and kick the can down the road again?
Unfortunately the powers that be have decided they've had enough of Saylor and he's getting kicked out of the indices. Expect the problem to only compound as the conditions get worse
lil retard retweeted
So I slept on it. Woke up with the realization that Bitcoin is just not interesting to me. It used to be kind of interesting 5 years ago. Now it's just mostly boring. The things going on with AI is infinitely more interesting than Bitcoin.
Hard for me to get behind the scarcity argument for Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is scarce (only 21 million will ever exist). But scarcity alone doesn't create value. Bitcoin's value comes from people believing it's worth something and paying for that belief. And that belief can change.
Compare it to stocks, yes stocks are also valued based on perceived value and perception of that value can change. But the main difference is the underlying business, revenue, profit, growth, etc. In other words, even if the market tanks at least I'll pay some multiple of earnings for a stock. One can argue there's an underlying business for Bitcoin as well and you can value it the same way, but I just don't see it. Hard to value Bitcoin as a multiple of earnings/growth.
Same goes for land. Land is valuable because of perceived value but that perceived value has an underlying use case. For example, sure land price can jump due to speculation and it can crash too. But in the end, a good piece of land still has value to build something on it (ie., a building on a busy city corner or a house overlooking the ocean).
You can say Bitcoin has an underlying use case, namely store of value. But its store of value use depends on its perceived value. Meaning, if let's say there's a better store of value and people don't value Bitcoin as much, then its price drops which inherently negatively impact its store of value proposition. In other words, what's Bitcoin's underlying business that I'm buying outside its store of value proposition. Even gold has an underlying some value outside of its store of value proposition. Gold is used in jewelry, electronics, etc. But still much of its use is still resting on its perceived value, ie., in jewelry. But it has thousands of years of history vs Bitcoin.
You could say Bitcoin's use is money transfer, meaning final settlement without intermediaries. But is that use case durable? I'm not convinced. It's already being disrupted, and not by banks. Stablecoins do the job better for most people, because people want to send dollars, not a volatile asset.
But I'm not betting against Bitcoin because it's possible the belief in Bitcoin doesn't die and it becomes a lasting global neutral reserve asset. I'm just not sold on it.
lil retard retweeted
The Intel situation is insane.
Intel, $INTC, is now down another -6% today after falling -29% on Friday in its biggest decline since 1971.
This puts the stock down -57% from its record high seen just 86 trading days ago.
That's -$440 billion of market cap.
But, it gets better.
Despite this historic reversal, the stock is STILL up +58% this year.
What a time to be an investor.
Correct. Bitcoin literally solves no problems and has a near zero real world use case.
“Omg AI capital will rotate into bitcoin”
Yeah sorry if you believe that you’re simply destined to be poor.
I have sold my remaining bitcoin.
I bought it all in 2018. Over the past few years I have sold small amounts. Last week I sold the last of it.
I had modest investments in Doge and Ethereum over the years but have long been out of those.
The reason? All of my friends who were enthusiastic about crypto have refocused on AI and other tech.
I don’t personally know anyone building exciting crypto projects.
When @chamath and @Jason shared similar thoughts to me, I decided it was time to move on.
bitcoin:native ethereum:native dogecoin:native
Nailed it. Every $MSTR and Bitcoin treasury dumbass should read this
Beware of investors who have turned a stock into their identity.
You know the accounts I’m talking about. Sometimes the warning is right in the username: All in in XYZ, XYZ Super Bull, XYZ Forever, XYZ to the Moon. Every post is about the same company. Every decline is a buying opportunity, every earnings report is brilliant, every competitor is inferior, and anyone who disagrees simply doesn’t understand the business.
At first glance, this looks like extraordinary conviction. But there’s a fine line between understanding a business deeply and becoming psychologically incapable of questioning it or living in a fashion where it becomes your identity. And the more publicly someone has committed to an opinion, the harder it becomes to reconsider it.
Here’s what makes this particularly dangerous. When your wealth, reputation, audience, and intellectual identity become attached to a single investment, changing your mind becomes enormously expensive emotionally. Selling the stock no longer feels like making a financial decision. It feels like admitting that everything you’ve been telling yourself and thousands of followers might have been wrong.
And that’s when something fascinating happens. You stop evaluating information and start defending a conclusion. Good news becomes evidence, bad news becomes an excuse, and legitimate criticism becomes a personal attack. You’re no longer researching the company to discover the truth. You’re researching it to protect what you already believe.
The greatest danger in investing isn’t being wrong. It’s becoming so emotionally invested in being right that you lose the ability to recognize when you’re wrong.
I’ve owned some businesses for well over a decade, and I understand the value of extraordinary conviction. But conviction should be the result of continuous examination, not a substitute for it. In fact, the longer you own a business, the more important it becomes to challenge your assumptions, because familiarity can quietly turn into complacency.
There’s also an important difference between knowing a company better than everyone else and believing you know it better than everyone else. One comes from years of curiosity, observation, and intellectual honesty. The other can come from nothing more than a rising stock price and an audience applauding your every opinion. A bull market has a remarkable ability to make confidence look like competence.
Here’s another uncomfortable truth. Once someone builds an audience around being bullish on a particular company, their incentives subtly change. They may begin telling followers what those followers want to hear rather than what they need to hear. The audience rewards certainty, while good investing demands the humility to live with uncertainty.
Never confuse loyalty to a company with loyalty to the truth. Companies don’t know you own their shares, and they certainly don’t owe you anything for believing in them.
Fall in love with the process of understanding businesses, not with the need for any particular business to prove you right. The goal of investing isn’t to defend yesterday’s decisions. It’s to make the best decisions you can with what you know today. Your portfolio should reflect your judgment. Your judgment should never become a prisoner of your portfolio.
🌹
“Omg @phongle said they wiill primarily use $STRC to buy bitcoin moving forward. OMG”
Yeah they also said they wouldn’t dilute the common stock in summer 2025 under 2.5x mNAV verbally stated,verbatim, “we think our stock at $440 is undervalued”
3 weeks later the stock was trading at $300, $MSTR changed this guidance and started diluting the stock all the way down to $100
If you buy anything these idiots have to sell, you truly deserve to lose your money
It’s been 6 months since $STRC traded at “par” and 6 months before that it barely hit par a few times
This is a massively failed experiment and pretty disgusting the company has anchored their whole identity on this stupidity
Guess what, borrowing money at the top of a cycle and selling at the bottom isn’t anything impressive. It’s a sign you have zero fucking clue what you’re doing. But who cares! It’s your moronic shareholders capital not anyone that matters 🤣
OMG $MSTR IS JUST DOING ALL OF THIS TERRIBLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TO GET THE CREDIT RATING AGENCIES EXCITED AND SO THEY GET INTO THE S&P500
lil retard retweeted
They are reinventing blow from first principles
