The Data

While the elderly has seen the biggest increases in mortality rate since 2020, on a percentage metric, 25-44 year olds have seen the biggest increases. While most age groups are now close to pre-Covid levels, these two age groups remain elevated, mostly due to external causes such as drug ODs, alcohol related, and homicides.

US Trade Deficit 2024 vs 2025 by month, goods and services

Hey @grok who was the most famous person to visit my profile? doesn’t need to be a mutual, don’t tag them, just say who it was.

Drug overdoses, homicides, motor vehicle deaths, and suicides from 2016 - 2023 in the US. Drug overdoses and motor vehicle accident deaths are up significantly since start of the pandemic and are continuing at an elevated level. Drug ODs started 2023 high but started to drop a little in the second half. Homicides are also up significantly from pre-pandemic levels but over the last year are on a better trend back toward pre-pandemic levels. Suicides are slightly elevated (less than 5%) in 2021 and 2022 and ended 2023 on par with 2022. Motor vehicle deaths up a lot from pre-pandemic levels but dipped a bit in 2022 and 2023.

This chart shows the monthly mortality rate in the US from 1999-2023. It includes All-Cause, Influenza & Pneumonia, and Covid. Covid was overall about 5.5 times more deadly than influenza & pneumonia (2016-2019). In 2020 Covid was 6.5x, 2021 was 7.7x, 2022 was 3.5x and 2023 was 0.9x.

Here’s a bit of a deep dive into Liver Disease in the US since 2018. It shows more deaths of despair with alcohol related liver deaths (K70, K74) up about a total of 37,000 from 2020-2023 above 2019 levels. That’s about a 25% increase. However, there are some positive signs of improvement as 2023 liver disease mortality is the lowest it has been since 2019.

Alcohol induced deaths increased dramatically in 2020 and has remained elevated through 2023, increasing by over 25% which is about 15,000 extra deaths per year. Some good news is that the second half of 2023 is showing a return towards pre-pandemic levels, but this could just be data lag.

US Nephritis deaths (inflammation of the kidney) are interesting. Prior to Covid, these deaths were very stable at around 50-51k. There was a small increase in 2020, but then there was a bigger jump in 2021 (54k), and even bigger in 2022 (58k). The first half of 2023 was down a little from 2022, but still elevated. This is one to keep an eye on.

US Septicemia deaths have been fairly stable throughout the 2016-2023 period.

Prior to Covid, the number of deaths due to Lower Respiratory problems in the US was in the 150k’s. Since Covid arrived, that number has dipped around 10k per year to the 140k’s.

Influenza and Pneumonia deaths in US vary from year to year more than most causes. However, prior to Covid most years were in the 50k’s. In 2020, there were 53k but it seems likely that a number of those were Covid early in the year before Covid testing became the norm. In 2021-2023, P&I deaths have been in the mid 40k’s, about 10k lower per year. This seems to make sense since someone with a weakened immune system that would have died from P&I could just as likely die from Covid. So Covid probably replaced some of these deaths.

Deaths due to strokes in the US were increasing at a modest rate of about 1-2% per year prior to Covid. When Covid arrived these deaths jumped 7% or about 10,000, and continued to increase in 2021 and 2022. 2023 remains elevated too. Why are strokes continuing at this elevated level? Why is there no observable pull forward effect?

Prior to 2020, the number of Cancer deaths in the US was very stable at just under 600,000 (adjusted for leap year). When Covid arrived in March 2020 there was an initial dip in cancer for a few months which may have been due to those with cancer dying from Covid instead. Since Covid there has been a small percentage increase to near 610,000, or about an extra 10,000. I would have expected cancer deaths to decrease due to pull forward effect, but that didn’t happen. Why? Missed screenings? Maybe there is more elderly? Something else?

Prior to Covid, deaths due to Heart Disease in the US were increasing about 5-10k every year. When Covid hit in 2020, heart disease deaths increased about 40k and have remained at this elevated level, even increasing another 10k in 2022 while Covid waned. 2023 finally shows some encouraging signs that it may be less, but this could be just data lag. What is driving this big increase since Covid? Stress?

Alzheimer’s deaths in US prior to Covid was fairly stable. When Covid hit in 2020 there was a significant jump that lasted the rest of the year. Since that jump the number of deaths have returned to pre-Covid levels. 2023 are even lower. Why did it increase in 2020? I suspect that the chaos of Covid and lockdowns (isolation in nursing homes) in 2020 was a factor. Why did it return to pre-Covid level in 2021-2023? One factor could be the pull forward effect (many died of Covid before they could die of Alzheimer’s). Another could be lockdown policies were relaxed.

Prior to Covid, diabetes deaths were increasing but at a slow rate of about 2-3% per year. As soon as Covid arrived in 2020, diabetes deaths jumped 17% and has remained elevated even as Covid has waned over the past year. We are finally seeing some decline in 2023. This big jump results in about an additional 15,000 deaths per year. Why? Could Covid infection be causing an increase in diabetes? Or are these the result of missing medical treatments due to lockdown policies or fear of Covid? Something else? This requires thorough analysis by the medical community.

Monthly update of drug overdoses, homicides, motor vehicle deaths, and suicides from 2016 thru June 2023. Drug overdoses and motor vehicle accident deaths are up significantly since start of the pandemic and are continuing at an elevated level. Drug ODs getting even worse toward end of 2022, and starting 2023 high too. Homicides are also up significantly but over the last year are on a better trend toward pre-pandemic levels. Suicides are slightly elevated (less than 5%) in 2021 and 2022 and appear to be increasing toward end of 2022 and into May 2023. Motor vehicle deaths up a lot too.