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Le Cactus

@CactusContraria

It stings. Contrarian & asymmetric bets, built in public. Real portfolio, every win and loss shown. Ex-HF and IB Banker Not investment advice. AI practitioner

 Europe
substack.com/@lecactuscontrarian
Joined October 2026
  • Tweets28
  • Following24
  • Followers9
Everyone's pricing Anthropic at $1T+. I ran the numbers: $612.1bn. It stings. 🌵 privatepi.substack.com/p/cla… Estimate, not a price target. Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
Mocking SpongeBob meme: "Anthropic is obviously worth $1T+." repeated in mocking case. Caption: My spreadsheet: $612.1bn. Estimate, not a price target.

ALT Mocking SpongeBob meme: "Anthropic is obviously worth $1T+." repeated in mocking case. Caption: My spreadsheet: $612.1bn. Estimate, not a price target.

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This is f*cking gold, the CEO of Obsidian put his own second brain on GitHub for free and people still build theirs from zero 7 free repos from the Obsidian team: -> kepano obsidian (by kepano)
github.com/kepano/kepano-…
the vault template of the Obsidian CEO himself, copy it and skip the blank page -> jsoncanvas (by obsidianmd)
github.com/obsidianmd/jso…
the open canvas format, your maps stay plain files that are yours forever -> obsidian releases (by obsidianmd)
github.com/obsidianmd/obs…
every community plugin and theme in one list -> obsidian sample plugin (by obsidianmd)
github.com/obsidianmd/obs…
the official template, build the plugin you are missing -> 40 questions (by kepano)
github.com/kepano/40-ques…
40 questions that turn your notes into a yearly review -> obsidian minimal (by kepano)
github.com/kepano/obsidia…
a clean theme so your vault stops looking like a mess -> flexoki (by kepano)
github.com/kepano/flexoki
the color scheme he made for writing and code your second brain should never start from a blank page 
copy his vault and make it yours
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Nasdaq +3%. Sold Nvidia on a gossip headline. Missed the bounce. 🌵
Bike Fall meme: rider labelled Nasdaq rebound, puts a stick in his own wheel labelled Sells Nvidia on a gossip headline, then lies on the ground asking Why is the market rigged against me.

ALT Bike Fall meme: rider labelled Nasdaq rebound, puts a stick in his own wheel labelled Sells Nvidia on a gossip headline, then lies on the ground asking Why is the market rigged against me.

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Semis: worst 5 sessions since 2001. SOX -21.8%, Fear & Greed 22. I hold SOXX (1.5% of NAV), ref. $136.53, Fri 11/6 close. Out on a close below $130.75. CPI tomorrow, Nvidia 11/17. privatepi.substack.com/p/the… Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
Panik Kalm Panik meme: SOX -21.8% in 5 days (panik), Fear & Greed at 22, leverage flushed (kalm), Nvidia board opens an independent review (panik).

ALT Panik Kalm Panik meme: SOX -21.8% in 5 days (panik), Fear & Greed at 22, leverage flushed (kalm), Nvidia board opens an independent review (panik).

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Stat via @KobeissiLetter (11/6), checked on SOX closes (Yahoo Finance).
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Why None of My Bots Is Allowed to Press ‘Buy’

Why None of My Bots Is Allowed to Press ‘Buy’

Article · @CactusContraria
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How I Built a Team of AI Bots That Does My Market Watch Before My Coffee

How I Built a Team of AI Bots That Does My Market Watch Before My Coffee

Article · @CactusContraria
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Waiting for payrolls so I can replace my entire macro worldview with a headline. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Trading oil: peace hopes in one tab, tanker alerts in the other. Very relaxing. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Peace Is Priced In. Shipping Has Not Confirmed.

Peace Is Priced In. Shipping Has Not Confirmed.

Article · @CactusContraria
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Different tickers. Same panic button. My diversification has excellent branding. 🌵
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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Wall Street wants an AI revolution. I want my cable company to explain itself. CHTR, GPAT and the week's portfolio check. New Cactus letter: privatepi.substack.com/wall-…
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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The market isn't betting on what Democrats will pass. It's betting on what Trump can no longer pass. 🌵 Gridlock is a feature, not a bug. Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
Image from Le Cactus (@CactusContraria)
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privatepi.substack.com/p/the…
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Democrats sweep Congress. By 6am every trading floor had printed the same sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines. When everyone has the same sheet, I turn it over. 🌵 privatepi.substack.com/p/the… Not investment advice.
Distracted Boyfriend meme: Le Cactus turns away from 'The sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines' to look at 'Long defense (ITA)'. Caption: Wall Street the morning after the blue wave: everyone printed the same sheet.

ALT Distracted Boyfriend meme: Le Cactus turns away from 'The sheet: sell defense, buy wind turbines' to look at 'Long defense (ITA)'. Caption: Wall Street the morning after the blue wave: everyone printed the same sheet.

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Bonds won the night: US 10y at 4.92%. Morgan Stanley on its own 16%/23% midterm stat: "We don't think that blueprint holds up this time around." I listen. Theses (not positions): long ITA, ICLN/XLV shorts under review. Not investment advice.
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Is Claude worth a trillion? The market is buying the story. We counted, and stopped at $612B: 36.6% below the Series H, ~65% below the IPO talk in the press. An estimate, not a price target. 🧵 Not investment advice.
Woman yelling at cat meme: IT'S A TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY vs my spreadsheet: $612B

ALT Woman yelling at cat meme: IT'S A TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY vs my spreadsheet: $612B

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CHTR: entry $104.82, close 03/11 $113.79 (GOOGLEFINANCE/Yahoo), earnings 06/11 at 13h Paris. Partial profit-taking level: to be confirmed. New merger arb lines: CPAC, PTC, PERI. Not investment advice.
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Full letter, FR + EN, 18 charts and tables: privatepi.substack.com/p/cla… Not investment advice; everyone is free to follow the positions or not.
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