Senior Analyst. See my substack https://nitter.gq/t.co/wKOkaiKtkr Also write @ https://nitter.gq/t.co/L3hyNVAx5G
Melbourne, Australia
Joined June 2023
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Callum Newman retweeted
Chinese chip shipments nearly doubled in the first half of 2026 to $177.28 billion, and computer and server shipments rose 41.3%.
Quote and graphic courtesy @ReutersChina
Callum Newman retweeted
In my Substack analysis at rwerner.substack.com I show how exactly the Bank of England toppled a sitting Prime Minister.
Ex-PM Liz Truss deserves all credit for her courage to battle the unaccountable central planners & not being intimidated by their vast but covert powers.
Former UK PM Lizz Truss says unelected central bankers wield more power than democratically elected world leaders.
She attributes the pound's "massive inflation" and devaluation to money printing by the Bank of England, which she describes as "completely unaccountable".
"The Bank of England governor can't be sacked, as I found out, but the prime minister can be."
"Why do you think young people can't get on the housing ladder? Again, it's because of the actions of this organisation, and yet nobody will hold them to account."
Callum Newman retweeted
Thanks to Jordan Roberts from Project Blue for pointing out the disconnect between spot prices and the GFEX. It is substantial and extended and suggests that the market itself does not agree with current GFEX pricing...
Makes me wonder which stocks were liquidated and sold down as these guys exited
Horror run for small-cap investors triggers wave of fund closures afr.com/markets/equity-marke…
Callum Newman retweeted
China’s #coal production totaled 385.1 million tons in September. This is up month-on-month by 23.3 million tons (6%) but down year-on-year by 26.4 million tons (-6%).
#drybulk
breakwaveadvisors.com/insigh…
Callum Newman retweeted
The BANK ETF, a blend of senior, subordinated and hybrid Aussie bank debt, yields 6.24%.
CBA, which is up 12% in a few weeks, is on a 3.1% yield.
ANZ, which just hit an all-time high, yields 4.1%.
The only conclusion to this mis-pricing is that institutional funds are using banks as a cash proxy as they hide from a weakening Aussie economy.
Like the banks are immune to what's coming.
Very strange and very dangerous positioning.
Callum Newman retweeted
🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
This is the kind of rare event you’d hang a picture of on the wall. The West Texas oil shipment was not only unusual—it took two months of travel.
West Texas to south east Australia!
Do not be fooled by the shape of he maps. This is three times the distance from Houston to Europe!
Map from @Kpler
Callum Newman retweeted
Congrats to @PLS on another standout quarter. I bought more this week after the #lithium stock rout.
$PLS recorded its highest quarterly production at Pilgangoora, producing 267.6kt of spodumene concentrate in the September Quarter, up 25% on the previous quarter. Unit operating costs fell 12% to $539/t, with revenue of $563M.
🔗 Read more: pls.com/news/september-quart…
#Lithium #ASX #Mining
Callum Newman retweeted
So, my book has made its Amazon debut and is already taking pre-orders. It’s becoming a real thing!
A History of Uncertainty: Science between the Ottoman Empire and Early Modern Europe a.co/d/0bBsolr3
Callum Newman retweeted
“•The global #diesel shortage is expected to persist well into 2027, as damaged Middle Eastern and Russian refineries continue to constrain fuel supplies.
•Trump's Russian diesel deal offers little relief, with initial shipments covering less than one-tenth of U.S. daily diesel consumption.
•Diesel prices could remain above $6 per gallon in the U.S., with winter demand and deferred refinery maintenance threatening further supply disruptions.”
#commodities
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi…
Callum Newman retweeted
This morning the Yangshan premium reached $205 per tonne (+30% in less than a week) to a new ALL TIME HIGH.
The lack of copper supply is real.
Following up on yesterday's post, here is what the 12-month chart looks like for the Yangshan premium, which yesterday hit a RECORD $178 per tonne of copper. That record broke again this morning. This tells us that despite all the macro noise, nothing has changed in the PHYSICAL world.
The Yangshan copper premium is the extra cost paid over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price to import refined copper into China.
The RECORD premium signals a lack of available short-term supply, strong domestic demand and low local warehouse inventories.
China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper, accounting for ~60% of global consumption. This problem is not unique to China, as other major economies around the world also face the same reality when they try to get their hands on copper metal... they have to pay up.
The copper market only wants to react upwards when the physical market globally is tight and shows no signs of easing.
Callum Newman retweeted
Atlantic #crude discounts fail to offset high freight to Asia, raising the risk of a regional glut as VLCC availability tightens.
#tankers
breakwaveadvisors.com/insigh…
Callum Newman retweeted
Michael Pollan reveals how the introduction of caffeine completely changed human history and consciousness.
"Before caffeine, it was a very different world and a very different consciousness. People were drunk a lot of the time, buzzed almost all of the time because it was safer than water"
"Water was really how you got diseases. If you fermented things, even low alcohol, it killed a lot of the microbes. So people, even kids, drank hard cider for breakfast"
"Tea, chocolate, and coffee all arrive in the same decade in England, and things start to change... no one ate or drank boiling water or hot beverages before"
"Boiling it made it much safer. This gave this incredible public health boost to these places, and then you have the drug that fosters a kind of more linear, rational, focused way of thinking"
"People in the 1600s started writing about it saying, 'Wow, we have this new civil and sober drink that we can use.' And that, I think, makes possible things like the Industrial Revolution"
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The clip repeats the myth that pre-caffeine people were mostly drunk because water was unsafe. Historians and medieval sources show water was commonly drunk from wells/springs while weak ale provided nutrition/calories, not a substitute for bad water.
leslefts.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-gr…
slate.com/human-interest…
fakehistoryhunter.net/2026/02/02/dri…
Callum Newman retweeted
There's a fair chance Escondida will make the same in FY28 as it did in FY25... despite copper moving from US$4.25/lb to US$6.50/lb...
The best mining speculations (outside your geoalpha bros) are mispriced grade inflections... which surprisingly happens a lot as everyone looks backwards. Grade drives economics... if you get both grade and commodity price inflect.. that is the holy grail 🚀
Callum Newman retweeted
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Callum Newman retweeted
Impressive historical drill data here by $CML - Headline: 205m @ 1.0% Nb₂O₅ and 227m @ 2.0% TREO, both from surface. Grades sit in $WA1 Luni / ($PRE.LSE) Longonjo territory, with follow up drills currently being assayed.. Hoping this could be a T1 asset in the making?? (Held)
Callum Newman retweeted
Would a central bank create a financial or economic crisis in order to maintain or increase its powers?
My book Princes of the Yen proved just that (quantumpublishers.com). Liz Truss experienced how the Bank of England did it. Read her book and get my analyses at rwerner.substack.com
Callum Newman retweeted
This is a great market environment imo. There is a bit of blood out there, definitely some pain, but hardly unworkable and frankly normalization of cost of capital globally (what is happening) is long overdue and not at all a negative.
In special sits its def game on. Tons to do if you have dedicated capital; a time horizon longer than 1-2 quarters; and balls the size of jet engines.
Will be announcing something more formal in this vein to take advantage of this opportunity.