PhD student in Physics/MatSci | Trader/Investor for 3+ years | Views are my own and for education purpose ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!
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Joined July 2014
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$SPY $QQQ $ADEA $FIVN $TKR
Haven’t posted here much lately because of that shadow ban :(
But here is the half-year performance, the research and portfolio management grind never stops.
If you’re interested in how I think about the markets and do my research, checkout my Substack linked to my account.
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Calcus Cal retweeted
This letter was sent to the Nvidia Board today which we believe outlines the minimum acceptable standards the Board owes shareholders as it manages this difficult situation. Onward. 🫡
$SPY
You’ll see a lot more of these bounces we saw post Dems win as the market corrects itself imo. Market was celebrating a potential stoppage of continued Iran war and a stoppage in tightening supply chains with a large scale dem win.
The thing to remember tho is the data center expansion narrative is in danger due to public backlash and dems have a clear anti-data center stance.
That’s most likely going to slow down a lot of earnings growth for a lot of sectors in $SPY and $QQQ going forward, and with the war and rate hikes combined, I think consumer is going to slow spending and B2B spending will also slow down imo. Less rotation of money in the economy and overall recession that I’ve been calling for most of the year seems likely here.
Watch for how the bounces react to the moving averages on $SPY. If we have rejection at the moving averages from above I think that’s just confirmation of a correction. The saving/optimistic path for the market is that $SPY is still defending the 200D moving average. If we see severe policy shift here a lot of potential carnage can be stopped imo.
Not Financial Advice!
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Calcus Cal retweeted
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM YOUR LOCAL CYBER SECURITY SPECIALIST
For those who don’t know what this recent PHP security vulnerability means:
This affects most public facing websites.
These vulnerabilities can allow someone to gain access to most websites and their hosting server. That could give them access to sensitive information and/or creds. That is a serious problem.
Companies are working on patching this immediately. But if someone already got in, patching the vulnerability isn't enough. Backdoors could still be there and you can't take back already stolen data.
The part I am most concerned about. Do these companies have the knowledge, staff, and information needed to properly investigate whether someone got in before they applied the fix? Most don't.
You are going to hear things like "your data was encrypted" this does not automatically mean it was safe. If someone controls the service that can decrypt that information, or the attacker has plenty of time and resources on their hands, the information can be decrypted.
This can also affect apps and other services that rely on these connections. How far an attacker can get depends on what those servers can access and how well the company has separated its systems. From many years of experience, most companies don't have good security posture.
FOR THE REGULAR NONTECHNICAL PERSON:
Don’t assume every account you have was hacked. This is a REALLY good time to pay attention and get your account security in order.
SO:
Keep an eye out for breach notices and unusual login activity. If you get an unexpected message telling you to reset your password, go to the company’s website or app directly. Don’t blindly trust or click links in emails. Fake security warnings will ramp up to take advantage of peoples fear.
Stop reusing passwords, ESPECIALLY THE SAME PASSWORD OR A VARIATION OF IT. Use a different password for each account, and turn on multifactor authentication wherever possible. Start with your email. If a company tells you your password was exposed, change it there and anywhere else you used the same or a similar one.
Being a regular person does not mean you’ll be ignored. A lot of account attacks are automated. Someone doesn’t need to know who you are to try your and a thousand other peoples stolen login on a hundred other websites simultaneously.
If you have ANY questions or need any help what so ever please let me know.
$SPY taking a beating today, but two of our biggest positions, $EXLS and $NICE are grinding higher.
Not Financial Advice!
$EXLS - EXLService Holdings, Inc.
operates at the intersection of proprietary enterprise data, domain expertise, and AI implementation. Its concentration in insurance, healthcare, banking, and other data-intensive industries is important because successful AI deployment often depends on integrating fragmented operational datasets rather than simply providing a general-purpose model.
Their acquisition of iMerit adds capabilities in data annotation, model training, and human-in-the-loop AI systems. That gives EXL additional exposure to the infrastructure required to make enterprise AI accurate and production-ready.
Q2 2026 revenue rose 15.6% to $594.8 million, while adjusted EPS increased 22.3%. Management raised expected full-year organic revenue growth to 13–14%, from 10–12%. The revised guidance also includes expected revenue from iMerit.
Crucially, these are company-wide growth rates rather than projections for a small experimental AI division. However, GAAP operating margin declined to 14.7% from 15.8%, so the evidence for margin expansion is weaker than the evidence for revenue and adjusted earnings growth.
They’re trading at roughly 2.50× EV/sales and 14.9× forward earnings, EXLS looks reasonably valued for a company reporting mid-teens revenue growth and faster adjusted EPS growth. Its forward earnings multiple is also substantially lower than its historical valuation in several recent years.
Continued 13–15% organic growth, successful integration of iMerit, and GAAP operating margins stabilizing while revenue scales.
Primary risk: AI automation could eventually reduce demand for some of EXL's labor-intensive managed services. The company must capture enough higher-value AI work to offset that pressure.
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Crazy to see $ASTS almost come back to where I first bought it at $32 last year. Will have to do some research and start dipping my toes again in this stock. I wanted to hold it long term but couldn’t justify the valuation at $110 so I sold it. Let’s see if it can come below the price when I first bought it.
Not Financial Advice!
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IEA TO ACCELERATE EMERGENCY STOCK RELEASES, INCLUDING OVER 20 MILLION BARRELS OF DIESEL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE - IEA
About 330 million barrels have been released so far, with around 100 million left, and total releases are set to exceed the original 400 million barrels. The Governing Board also urged members with production and refining capacity to boost supply, particularly diesel.
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📝 Bond market and $SPY are showing signs of correlation now, after months of inverse reactions from both.
This is something you should be taking a note of.
Not Financial Advice!
The FED summarized
“Hey guys, inflation is bad and the oil shock + lower overall shipments + diesel shock are driving the prices up across the board, and people are struggling to afford basic needs.
So we are going to hike rates to make those things more unaffordable, so you people will stop buying basic needs and lose jobs, so the inflation caused by an incompetent administration can be controlled.”
Like I’ve been saying for past 4-5 months, this imo is a huge policy error by the Fed and Americans and potentially the world will pay for it via recession.
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$GFS
How many times has the table been pounded?
$GFS
GlobalFoundries (Nasdaq: GFS) (GF) today announced it has been selected as the technology provider and operator for two new semiconductor manufacturing facilities (“fabs”) at its Malta, New York, site under a U.S.-Japan initiative providing up to $21 billion in funding. Enabled by President Donald J. Trump's trade and investment agreement with Japan, the initiative will accelerate trusted semiconductor manufacturing in the United States, strengthen critical supply chains and support growing demand across automotive, industrial and connected infrastructure markets.
Japan will provide the investment, while GF will contribute its differentiated technologies, manufacturing expertise and proven operational capabilities as technology provider and operator.
An initial investment of approximately $10 billion will accelerate construction of a new 300mm semiconductor fab, which is expected to come online in 2029. An additional investment of approximately $10 billion would fund a second fab. Together, the two fabs will add significant new U.S. manufacturing capacity and reinforce GF's ability to support customers worldwide.
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That’s why we longed $META at $530s. It’s very obvious that after all the picks and shovels are sold the gold miners will be the ones making money.
Not Financial Advice!
Looking back a few years from now, people are going to kick themselves over how painfully obvious the hyperscalers were here
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$WDAY and Anthropic Announced a New Partnership to Connect Reasoning to the Rules That Run the Business, Wherever People Choose to Work
Workday's Sana AI agents now connect with Claude for HR and finance work.
People Can Find Workday Information, Take Action, and Approve Work Through Sana Agents in Claude – Workday's Permissions and Business Rules Apply to Every Request, and the User Confirms Every Change.
Sana Handles Complex, Long-Running HR and Finance Work and Calls on Claude's Reasoning for Individual Steps, While Keeping the Data Inside Workday
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$NVT and $AMD Collaborate on Cooling for AMD Helios Rackscale Solution.
nVent will add liquid and air cooling solution to AMD rack-scale Al platform to create a fully integrated system for large Al workloads.
The companies will unveil a first look of the open-source solution at the OCP Global Summit.
"This collaboration brings nVent's cooling expertise to one of the leading Al platforms in the industry," said Eric Osborn, vice president and general manager of Data Solutions, Cooling & Power at nVent. "We are designing for the platforms our customers are building on, and working closely with AMD is how we make sure the fit right."
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This is one of the very concerning things I’ve heard regarding the broader AI trade. $AVGO CEO is one of the most knowledgeable and influential people in the semi space. He’s telling you that not just the investors, but the companies themselves are playing a dangerous game and gambling their money on AI.
He compared enterprise AI token spending to kids at a video arcade: parents give them $10 of tokens, they burn through them in 10 minutes, and “you haven’t learned anything.” That’s the “spending without a clear idea of productive use” angle.
Companies are essentially spending money on AI without necessarily having an idea on what they’re going to use it for. Just spending to have better models.
He also noted OpenAI’s ~$50B annualized revenue while still losing money on training/compute costs, questioning their longer-term financial health.
And to some degree we all know this, but I think an industry expert calling this out when it actually hurts his stock is brave. We need to be careful going forward imo.
Not Financial Advice!
BROADCOM $AVGO CEO HOCK TAN SAYS SOME AI INVESTORS ARE BETTING LIKE THEY'RE IN A CASINO
Tan spoke Monday at an event in Singapore, per Bloomberg.
- "A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in."
- He warned a shortage of capital could be the next limit on AI growth
- He compared companies spending on AI tokens to kids who burn through $10 of arcade tokens in 10 minutes
On the same panel, Intel $INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan said AI hardware will stay in short supply for the next 2 to 3 years.
ALT Photo Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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$DT Achieves FedRAMP Class D (High) "Initial Implementation" Status to Support Federal Government Customers' Most Sensitive Workloads - Business Wire
This Advances Dynatrace's AI-Powered Observability Platform toward Federal Government's Highest Security Tier.
“The agencies running the nation's most critical missions face a compounding challenge: accelerating AI adoption and cloud modernization, all while meeting the government’s most stringent security requirements,” said Steve Tack, Chief Product Officer at Dynatrace. “Advancing to Class D (High) 'Initial Implementation’ status means federal agencies can start planning to bring Dynatrace's full AI-powered platform to their most sensitive and mission-critical workloads.”
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Regardless of how you spin this (people are spending money unnecessarily or prices are inflated), the structural problem remains the same with US and Europe economies.
People are reaching a threshold of spending. When they say enough is enough that’s when the high margins and pricing powers unwind. This, in my opinion, only leads to a recession.
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$OSS Unveils Tamarack-G, a Next-Generation OCP/VPX Hybrid System, at AUSA 2026.
Disruptive rugged tactical computing platform designed to deliver 600x lower latency and 6x greater bandwidth.
MOSA-aligned architecture builds on OSS's deployed Cernis/Donati/Sensor Concentrator lineage to eliminate legacy VPX processing bottlenecks.
Tamarack-G designed specifically for 360° Situational Awareness, full-spectrum counter UAS, and next-generation communication platforms.
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$AMZN reported talks for a ~$7B acquisition of Decart AI for startup’s focus on real-time video generation and transformation, according to WSJ and Reuters coverage.
Decart, founded in 2023, develops Lucy for live video-to-video editing and Oasis for simulated environments, plus its DOS optimization stack that improves AI model efficiency across hardware including Amazon’s Trainium chips.
The potential deal comes after Anthropic walked away from similar talks following due diligence; it could strengthen AWS’s AI infrastructure and video capabilities as Decart was valued near $4B in its May 2026 funding round.
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