30 Year Veteran Global Macro Economic Forecaster.
Joined May 2013
- Tweets28.6K
- Following962
- Followers2.7K
- Likes17.7K
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
For those who missed it yesterday.
What's wrong with economics, economists and the Economy youtube.com/live/kxxgn0dUZRA… via @YouTube
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Financial firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl applying 'Gate' restrictions and limitations to withdrawals should be seeing as a 'canary in the coalmine' for the financial industry, suggesting that liquidity stress in private markets could trigger wider market volatility.
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
reaching $1.28 trillion.
Demographic Hardship: Gen Z and millennial borrowers are falling behind on payments at higher rates, especially for auto loans (over 7% delinquent).
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
The delinquency rate for the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes jumped 73% (4.8% in Q2 2022 to 8.3% in Q1 2025), while the lowest-income 10% saw a 53% increase (14.9% to 22.8%).
Total U.S. household debt hit an all-time high of $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, with credit card debt
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Driven by record-high debt ($1.28 trillion), high-interest rates (approx. 22.8% APR), and inflation, consumers—particularly in lower-income and younger demographics—are struggling to repay, signaling significant stress on household balance sheets.
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Absolutely Jon
Policy-mistake-makers who turned a supply shock into inflation are now turning inflation fighting into a recession
Mistake-> bigger mistakes
Fed = the old lady who swallowed a cow to catch the goat, to catch the dog, to catch the cat, to catch the bird etc etc
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
The world received a wake-up call when Putin invaded Ukraine, using oil and natural gas as a tool of war.
After touring the Oil Sands for the first time, I was reminded that our country is blessed with the third largest reserves of oil and fifth in natural gas in the world, and the first to develop an SMR in the G7.
Canadian energy products & tech can and should be the solution to rising geopolitical instability, energy security, and affordability.
Ontario produces the pipelines — creating 72,800 good-paying jobs and an over $8 billion injection to our provincial economy. This is why we ❤️ Canadian Energy.
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
It is time for @potus Joe Biden to withdraw from the Presidential race as the President's health is an open door for Donald Trump to secure a second term. In the likely event that Biden loses to Trump, among other issues, January 6th will not be an anomaly - it will be normalized and routine. The Supreme Court's recent decision on immunity is a reflection of its growing power and the inability of the Democratic party to mount a populist defense. If Biden doesn't withdraw -strong welfare initiatives, sensible gun control, economic justice and women's rights will be ever more problematic. My view. @business @cnbc @tomkeene @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @cnbcfastmoney @halftime @pboockvar @whitneytilson @SaraEisen @guyadami
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
I blame it mostly on Jill, who should be arrested for spousal abuse.
nitter.gq/EndWokeness/status/180…
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
What I am hearing regarding Joe Biden. Ron Klain and Barack Obama are having a sit down with the President today. Jill Biden is insistent that Joe runs. Kamala is furious that she is not being considered as a replacement (Whitmer and Newsom are). Interestingly my neighbor in East Hampton is hosting the Bidens tomorrow. It will be an important tell if the fundraiser is cancelled. @dougkass @carlquintanilla @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @jimcramer @business @SRuhle @msnbc @cnbc @andrewrsorkin
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
>
role & influence of CBs & policymakers
In short, Fed et al could prevent near term problems but IMO their dubious competence means that they have left it too late
However, if/when we do hit the rocks they can & will react by creating more interest-bearing currency in order to>
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Expect monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements from China in H2, says Catherine Yeung of Fidelity International.
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Q: Zirp means inflation to the moon
A common mistake
The interest rate fallacy
Lets try and Jack Kerouac this... nitter.gq/1337_FAFO/status/16545…
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
#Breaking: "#FED leaves year end #FFR projection at 5.125%"
Translation: A lot of pain to come. On what planet is it acceptable to hike into a recession?
@PaulGambles2 @tyillc @Halsrethink
@AlastairWinter @Lars9596
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Agreed
I think that they're patting themselves on the back about how well they've handled things - none so blind as policymakers who won't see
nitter.gq/CapitalJon/status/1635…
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
Bill Ackman @BillAckman says the government should step in to bailout $SIVB. Do you think SVB poses a systemic risk? MBMG's Paul Gambles @PaulGambles2 says no and calls it a perfect example of creative destruction. @willkoulouris
nitter.gq/BillAckman/status/1634…
Jonathan Urlich retweeted
"This is one of the largest bank failures in history."
@sonalibasak explains the significance of Silicon Valley Bank being closed by California regulators trib.al/gJaZJBE
