Christopher Johnson retweeted
Bitcoin may have just begun a 2-3 year bull market. Here's why, and what that could mean for BTC price.
1. BTC has decisively popped above Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line)
Three weeks ago (at $64k), I said we were at the bottom. I noted that a decisive jump above the STH cost basis loomed in the coming months, and it happened a bit faster than expected!
It seems that many don't see the latest rally as persuasive evidence of a major trend change. For me, this chart from @_Checkmatey_ tells the story...
2.
The 2026 bear market has followed a remarkably similar pattern to 2022
In 2022, the ratio of BTC Price to STH cost basis (aka STH MVRV, the orange and blue metric on bottom half of this chart) bottomed in June, then drifted back to neutral for 7 months as the bear trend lost momentum. 7 months later, in January 2023, BTC price jumped decisively above STH cost basis.
Then, STH MVRV spent 80%+ of the next 2.5 years in positive territory. All that orange on this chart? That's a bull market.
Here in 2026, the STH MVRV ratio bottomed in Feb, then drifted back to neutral for 7 months as the bear trend lost momentum. ~7 months later, in late August, BTC price jumped decisively above STH cost basis.
That's where we are now.
3.
Welcome to the new bull market
If the 2022 bear and 2023-25 bull cycle continue to repeat, we have just begun a new 2.5 year bull market.
As I pointed out in my prior post, the start of a new BTC bull market is not a result of good news arriving. Rather, it's primarily a function of the bearish trend running out of steam (and sellers).
Right now, what's left are three types of portfolios: those who don't know enough about BTC to want it (yet), those who are happy with their BTC holdings, and those who were waiting to buy BTC lower. Guess which group is watching in pain? In the early bull market, this is the dry powder that will bid BTC upwards as bears capitulate and get back in, one-by-one.
This is just the first stage of a bull market. The pendulum of market psychology for BTC has just begun to swing towards the bullish zenith. It will take years to go from disbelief (now), to optimism, to mania.
A big part of this process will be the next halving, currently on track for mid-April 2028. New BTC supply issuance will be permanently halved. This causes a supply shock, but more importantly, a marketing narrative for BTC. People will front-run, others will chase. All of that is still ahead.
4.
My base case expectations
With hindsight, I think this will be viewed as the start of the 2026-29 bull market.
I think we will spend 80%+ of the next 2.5 years with BTC price above the STH cost-basis (pink line).
How high this bull market goes is harder to say. The last bull market delivered an 8x from the bear-market low. An 8x from this bear-market low ($58k) would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.
If you thought Bitcoin was dead, or you were hoping to buy BTC lower... now might be the time to re-evaluate.
This is my 3rd Bitcoin bear market. Here's what seems clear to me, that newer Bitcoiners may not feel....
1. This is what a BTC bear market bottom feels like
Normie friends have been asking me "is BTC going to be 60s forever?" and "what positive catalysts are on the horizon?"
One of the big lessons I've learned in BTC cycles is that the tops feel bullish... and the bottoms feel bearish.
The end of a bear market is primarily a function of running out of sellers. The bearish sentiment builds on itself and shakes out low conviction holders... until you exhaust potential sellers.
Or perhaps a more precise mental image... the bottom is in WHEN the pile of capital hoping for a lower entry price to buy BTC has become disproportionately large relative to remaining potential sellers.
A BTC bear market doesn't end because good news arrives. It ends because bearish momentum can't be sustained and naturally ebbs. Then, suddenly, people sitting in cash are caught offsides and must bid BTC higher as they try to get back in.
2. The 2022 cycle bottom felt similar
June 2022, it felt like shit watching BTC tumble below prior cycle high ($20k) for the first time ever. Price tumbled from $30k to $18k in a few days. People thought we were headed to $12k . In hindsight, that was peak bearish momentum.
Over the next ~5 months, BTC drifted lower, with FTX fallout setting a cycle low in November at $15.5k . BTC felt gloomy and quiet for 2 months... and then popped back to $23k in January 2023 all of a sudden.
In hindsight, that was the start of a 2.5 year bull market that took BTC to $126k, roughly ~8x from cycle low.
3. Metrics show 2026 repeating the psychology of 2022
This chart shows Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) and how it tracks with BTC market price (white line). The bottom half shows this as a ratio between the two numbers (STH MVRV). Credit to @_Checkmatey_ for this excellent chart.
In the 2022 bear market, you can see that the lowest STH MVRV ratio was June 2022. After this point, Short-Term Holder cost basis drifted lower along with BTC price for ~7 months, until January 2023 when BTC jumped convincingly above the pink line for the first time in 13 months... and a new bull market had begun.
In 2026, the MVRV ratio spiked lowest in Feb. Since then, STH cost basis and BTC price have drifted lower for ~6 months now.
4. What this could mean for BTC's near future
If the parallels between 2022 and 2026 continue, it would mean BTC price jumping convincingly above STH cost basis sometime in the next few months. (7 months post peak bearish momentum would mean September 2026; 13 months below STH cost basis trendline would mean November 2026.)
And in hindsight, that breakout moment could be the start of a 2.5 year bull market. (8x from $58k low would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.)
If history repeats, this was the bottom. And in 4 years, you'll look back at $64k BTC the same way we now look back wistfully at $19k BTC.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
What a silver year does to bitcoin
In January 2025, silver’s market cap was worth $1.6T at $29 an ounce. Twelve months later, it marked at $6.2 trillion. The last three months of that repricing added more dollar value than the entire bitcoin network is worth today. Silver had no new use case in 2025 and no supply shock. The repricing was monetary, a bid for hard assets that needed somewhere to land.
Bitcoin's market cap as I write is $1.6T. Silver started its run at $1.6T.
Silver ground up 45% over eight months while nobody cared. It accelerated through September, topped the squeeze on October 16 at +87% for the year, then gave back 14% in seven sessions, and everyone who called the top there felt clever until December. The calendar year closed at +145%. The blow-off came in late January at +301%, and the unwind took 28.5% in a single session on its way to a 42% drawdown over eight weeks. Put that sequence on bitcoin from $78K and you get about $110K in the grind, $145K at the squeeze, $190K at the year mark, $311K at a blow-off, $179K after the bust. Those numbers are silver's route assuming bitcoin's starting point today plugged in.
Silver had something bitcoin lacks. Lease rates over 30% and an empty London float forced buyers into the market: metal that had been lent out got called back, the deliverable float thinned, and anyone short had to source physical or pay whatever the borrow demanded.
What bitcoin has instead sits on the supply side. Silver's rally called out its own answer, scrap out of drawers and mine output that is elastic over a few years. Bitcoin's issuance does not respond to price at all, and terminal supply is capped at 21 million. The treasury companies compound that: they buy with equity and debt rather than client flows, they buy to hold, and every coin they take is one that does not come back to the float. No lease rate, no delivery date, but a standing drain on a pool that cannot be enlarged.
The Pharaoh's view: bitcoin is the only major monetary asset still priced where silver began. I don’t think I need to explain to you why it’s worth multiples of that. And while your expectations are anchored by your recent experiences, bitcoin is not.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
bitcoin:native is primed for a massive move...
Bollinger Band Width just fell to 4.5, meaning bitcoin:native volatility has collapsed.
bitcoin:native's bands have been this tight on only 112 of 6,046 trading days since 2009, making it a top 2% reading.
Historical BTC performance after getting this tight:
• 30 days later: +11% (median)
• 90 days later: +53% (median)
• 180 days later: +71% (median)
• 360 days later: +180% (median), positive 95% of the time
If you look only at the past 10 years, the 1-year median return is still +150% and is positive 95% of the time.
Vol this quiet has never lasted. Compression tends to precede expansion.
Enjoy the last bits of your quiet summer.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
The foundations are really building here.
It's very important that you do not mistake low volatility for Bitcoin being dead.
It is actually quite the opposite.
All of the energy for Bitcoins next move is being built in right here, over these last 60 days.
Whether we Inverse H&S it from here or we drop down to take that long awaited level of $60,500...
I don't think it's going to matter that much in the grand scheme of things.
Bitcoins next major move is very likely to the upside here.
And very likely to begin this month.
PMI at 55.6
Equities ripping again
Rate hikes aren't happening
Yen intervention by the treasury
Clarity will most definitely bring some volatility, which way, we are yet to know.
But markets have everything they need for a nice run.
Strap in bois.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
This morning, $CIFR released its Second Quarter 2026 Business Update, marking a quarter of accelerated delivery, pipeline growth, and continued capital markets execution. Highlights from the quarter included:
- Delivered first data center capacity at Black Pearl two months ahead of schedule, with rent commenced
- Acquired an option for a new site called Apollo, up to 900 MW, located near San Antonio, Texas
- Secured full funding for Stingray, our third data center development, through an $810 million bond offering
- Achieved key construction milestones across Barber Lake, Black Pearl, and Stingray
"The accelerated delivery at Black Pearl, together with everything else we accomplished this quarter, proves we can execute at scale, with speed, and without compromise," said Tyler Page, CEO.
More here: bit.ly/4qf0vHr
#HPC #AI #DataCenters #BuiltforHyperscale
Christopher Johnson retweeted
One of the biggest misconceptions about Bitcoin is that people think the security comes from hardware wallets, PIN codes or the fact that nobody knows your password. It doesn't. Bitcoin's security comes from mathematics and the sheer size of the search space. There is no central server, no password reset and no account to lock after three failed login attempts. The only thing protecting your bitcoin is the quality of the secret used to create your wallet.
A modern Bitcoin wallet starts by generating a truly random number known as the entropy. That random number is then converted into a human-readable BIP39 mnemonic, usually a list of 24 words. Those words are simply another way of writing the same random number down so that a human can back it up. If you choose to use a BIP39 passphrase (often incorrectly called the "25th word"), that becomes a second secret. The mnemonic and passphrase together deterministically generate every private key and every Bitcoin address your wallet will ever use.
The important point is that Bitcoin is not secure because nobody can guess your 24 words. It is secure because there are approximately 2²⁵⁶ possible starting values for a properly generated 24-word wallet. That number is so unimaginably large that it is beyond human intuition. It isn't just that computers would take a long time to search them all - they couldn't even generate a complete list, let alone store it. Even if every computer on Earth worked together for longer than the age of the universe, they would not come close to exhausting the search space.
This is why people sometimes misunderstand Bitcoin security. They hear "24 words" and assume someone could eventually make a database of every possible wallet. In reality, the conversion from one random number into one wallet is trivial and takes milliseconds. The impossible part is doing it for every possible starting number. There are simply too many possibilities for any realistic computer, storage system or amount of energy that humanity could ever build.
If one day computers really could search all 2²⁵⁶ possibilities, Bitcoin would be the least of our worries. Much of modern cryptography would also become vulnerable. Secure websites, online banking, encrypted messaging, password managers, VPNs, software signing and countless other security systems all rely on the same basic assumption: some mathematical search spaces are so large that brute force is not a practical attack. Bitcoin is not unique in depending on this principle.
The recent Coldcard vulnerability is a perfect example of the difference between strong cryptography and weak implementation. Bitcoin itself was not broken. The mathematics did not fail. The problem was that the affected devices appear to have generated wallets from a much smaller pool of possible random numbers than intended. Instead of effectively choosing from around 2²⁵⁶ possibilities, the bug reduced the search space dramatically. The resulting 24-word phrases looked completely normal, but the attacker no longer had to search the entire universe of possible wallets.
This highlights an important lesson. Cryptography is only as strong as the randomness that creates the secret in the first place. If you start with a weak or predictable random number, everything built from it inherits that weakness. Conversely, if the starting entropy is genuinely random and you optionally add a strong BIP39 passphrase, brute-force attacks become computationally unrealistic with current technology.
I am saddened to hear of those who have lost their life savings. It is devastating, and my sympathy is with everyone affected.
Incidents like this are also a reminder that self-custody carries real responsibility. Buying a hardware wallet is not enough. To be genuinely sovereign, you need to understand what the mnemonic represents, why entropy matters, what the passphrase actually does, how deterministic wallets are created, and why protecting those secrets is ultimately what protects your bitcoin.
Self-custody may be one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths, but it is not something to approach lightly. It is best suited to people who are prepared to invest the time to understand how it works.
For everyone else, and in my view corporations adopting a Bitcoin balance sheet, there is no shame in using a trusted custodian.
I've consistently said that anyone buying Bitcoin treasury companies needs to understand what they're actually buying. In the case of Smarter Web, it's an operating business with a Bitcoin treasury that has historically increased Bitcoin per share. That's very different from simply buying Bitcoin, and investors should understand that distinction.
The same principle applies to self-custody. If you're taking responsibility for securing your life's savings, you need to understand every aspect of that responsibility. Sadly, I suspect many people underestimate the technical and operational risks involved.
Self-custody is an incredible tool when done well, but it isn't risk-free.
If you've been impacted by the recent self-custody situation - or if you use self-custody more generally - and you do not have a high level of technical knowledge take the opportunity to speak with people you trust. Ask them to help you review your setup, challenge your assumptions, and make sure you understand both the technical and operational risks.
Just as importantly, make sure the people you love know what they would need to do to access your Bitcoin if you were no longer around. A custody plan should protect your assets without making them inaccessible to the people you intend to leave them to.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
Too many people feared $CIFR's backtest of the 50week MA last week
It was a bullish backtest and as always best to remain bullish at support
Christopher Johnson retweeted
Miner Net Position Change is showing an IMPORTANT shift.
After several aggressive distribution phases, miner flows are flipping back toward positive territory.
Major miners like $MARA, $CLSK, and $RIOT are no longer creating the same level of supply pressure they did during the deeper drawdown.
That removes one of Bitcoin’s biggest headwinds.
This is BULLISH for the broader trend and strongly supports the view that a DURABLE HIGH-TIMEFRAME BOTTOM is getting closer.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
It is important to not get overly excited too soon.
Yes, Bitcoin is showing some nice strength here, but before we celebrate anything we have to get some decent closes under our belt.
The $66,000 level is last cycles $18,000 level.
And our current situation is very similar to then.
We can see that once Bitcoin reclaimed that range deviation and got a weekly close back above $18,000, the downtrend was officially over.
Right now, we are starting to attempt to do the same here at $66,000.
If we can lock in this close, its a very solid start to the reversal here.
After that, if we clear $74,000 and the 1D 200 SMA, we can be confident that we are fully back on and ATHs will follow.
I am allocated heavily and believe the macro low is in.
Bit before we get ahead of ourselves, we let price action confirm it for us beyond doubt.
The $60k low continues to be our macro low.
And we are now putting in the work to cross the first major hurdle of confirming this with the actual price action.
Bitcoin is pushing above $66,000 here, and although it is early in the week, a weekly close above here signals to us that the move lower was a HTF deviation to the 200w SMA.
Once we have that, next it will be back to $74,000 to really get the confirmation that we have totally bottomed and the highs will be coming fast.
You all know my views, I have been of the mind that $60,000 is the major low of this correction and that we will be back at the highs by early next year.
There are unending pieces of data and onchain metrics that show me this.,
However, until we have the moves, it is all a thesis and a risk, and that is why we get paid.
But price is starting to move in the way in which we need for confirmation, just as the crowd continues to all expect $40k.
I do not think that is going to happen.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
The odds for higher massively outweigh lower.
The 200w SMA has only ever been lost once in Bitcoins history, and that was in 2022.
What makes it so notable is that the chart literally sliced straight through it without any resistance.
Before that time, a weekly candle had never truly closed below it.
Fast forward to now, and Bitcoin has only closed one candle below it out of the last 7 weekly candles.
And the week after it closed below, it closed straight back above.
In short, any time Bitcoin has respected the 200w SMA like this, for this long...
It has never gone on to fully drop below.
This is only one of very many key metrics and data points that show us $60k is our macro low.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
$ASTS standing on business today.
Execute and 10 X
BlueBirds 9 and 10 are now successfully deployed in orbit.
Two more of the world's largest commercial communications arrays have joined our growing constellation. Another step closer to the future of cellular broadband from space.
With BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 at Cape Canaveral preparing for their imminent launch, and production advancing through spacecraft 41, we continue to execute at scale.
Innovation in orbit. Execution in motion. 🌎📶📱🇺🇸
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
Christopher Johnson retweeted
Upon signing new contracts $IREN raises its year-end ARR target from $3.7b to over $4b 💪
For anyone paying attention, this ARR raise was inevitable...
Over the coming days Horizon 1 will be delivered, adding ~$120m to $IREN's quarterly AI revenues.
By Q1 2027 revenues will exceed $1b per QUARTER.
Think about it, $IREN is guiding for >$4b ARR on 480 MW of delivered capcity this year. For 2027, management is guiding for 1.2 GW, with much of that being higher yielding Rubin capacity.
Year-end ARR for next year will easily be >$12b. That's $3b per quarter!
Investors continue to miss the forrest for the trees on $IREN. It's pretty obvious where this ship is sailing...
IREN has signed $2.8bn in new multi-year AI Cloud services contracts with leading AI developers and raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target from $3.7bn to over $4.0bn.
“Our vertically integrated AI Cloud platform is scaling at pace. In the past 12 months we have expanded from approximately 3MW of self-built AI Cloud capacity to 480MW being delivered this year, with 1.2GW targeted for 2027, broadening our customer base across hyperscalers, enterprises and AI developers.”
“We are proud to support leading companies building frontier applications across design, physical AI and robotics, generative media, AI search and model development.” - @danroberts0101
Press release: iren.gcs-web.com/static-file…
Christopher Johnson retweeted
Three years of institutional buying, drawn as one picture.
$CIFR: 18M shares to 385M.
$CLSK: 45M to 303M.
$IREN: 9M to 173M.
And the steepest part of all three curves is the most recent stretch, straight into this selloff.
Prices follow sentiment for weeks.
Ownership follows conviction for years.
Choose which chart you trade.
Does this make you bullish or bearish?
$IREN so far holding it's $39 level.
Gues which level is the most stacked this week on the GEX Heatmap... $39...
Floor remains intact here.
The whole sector has seen a big drawdown.
All the while institutions have increased ownership.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
$HIMS will complete a Golden Cross next week
It has also shown strong relative strength lately.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
$ASTS in 1 week, people lost discipline here
Forgot about its MOAT, how undervalued it is compared to Starlink and the 10 X potential here
The market loves distracting you with fear
Know what you own, know where support is and have conviction
Watch and learn.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
I missed something.
I’ve been saying for months that the Clarity Act will not pass because of the ethics clause.
What I missed it that Trump can sign it into law with an ethics clause and just ignore it, as he has no ethics and does not play by the rules anyway.
Maybe it will pass.
Truth Social will sell Wall Street firms quicker access to market-moving posts from President Donald Trump, the company said on Thursday.
cnn.com/2026/07/16/business/…
Christopher Johnson retweeted
$ASTS
There ain't no way this was just a standard ABC pull back to the 0.618 Fib for Wave 2.
It can't be that easy.
Potential bottom is in.
Christopher Johnson retweeted
Metaplanet is building a new kind of financial institution from Japan, with Bitcoin at its core.
At WebX 2026 today, @Shinpei3350 and Metaplanet Securities CEO @kazukikomura laid out the next phase: issuing new financial instruments, including bonds and preferreds, and pioneering a digital credit market. @MetaplanetSec launched July 13, sits at the center of it.
Bitcoin is the foundation. Now we build the ecosystem on top of it.
news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/1b…
