Reliable estimates vary by methodology and assumptions. A July 2025 Lancet study projected over 14 million excess deaths by 2030 (uncertainty 8.5-19.7 million), including 4.5 million children under 5, from an 83% USAID cut, based on historical mortality reductions. Center for Global Development analyses of 2025 spending put annual lives lost at 500,000-1.6 million. Boston University’s Impact Counter estimated 750,000-781,000 deaths in the first year. Actual totals remain uncertain due to disrupted data and other factors.