John Carney (@carney) header
John Carney (@carney) profile picture

Raised in New York City’s most liberal neighborhood. Conservative by the grace of God. Ask me for my Signal #.

Among all the lost causes.
Joined March 2007
Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)Photo by John Carney (@carney)
It's time to start listening to the Street Dogs again. youtu.be/D2QXANLZiqM?si=jw4n… via @YouTube
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John Carney retweeted
Midterms came down to economic messaging. @carney says “We're having an economic boom… Republicans couldn't sell it, this is a serious failure on their part.”
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Trump's approval on the economy was trending down from the get go. It moved down and then stabilized after Liberation Day, even rising a bit. The launch of the war didn't hurt much. But it the fact that things dragged on that really kicked the legs out from under Trump and the GOP.
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This chart shows that liberation day tariffs did nothing to the direction of Trump's approval on the economy. The prior trend continued. It had leveled out before the war. But when the war started, it fell off the cliff.
Replying to @michaelbd
I get crap even when I’m defending you? Come on, man… But I’ve already answered that. Your interpretation of people‘s response to tariffs is simply wrong. And as for why 2026 is different than 2018–be serious. Covid, tariffs, inflation generally, a war, widespread corruption, ICE brutality—what *isn’t* different!? nitter.gq/JuddBaroff/status/2118…
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Republicans overwhelmingly support Trump's tariffs or want them even higher.
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Gasoline prices are the current driver of higher inflation and I'm pretty sure that does have something to do with both "cost of living" and Iran. But go ahead and keep bashing President Trump's tariffs. It's revealing.
Numerous exit polls show the economy — tariffs, cost of living, were the top motivator for votes. This narrative of Iran/Israel simply isn’t reflected as being the top issue, despite trying hard to make it seem so.
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There are about two dozen people who think this, and they all oppose President Trump's signature trade policies.
Two Senators tell me the Vice President is right that the GOP turned against the Iran war in the Senate GOP’s own polling. But they say what the VP leaves out is that the turn came after the VP negotiated a bad deal with the Iranian regime that repulsed the GOP.
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John Carney retweeted
Killer conclusion by Michael Brendan Dougherty in @thefp -- but you'll want to read the whole thing thefp.com/p/trump-lost-becau…
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We entered WWII when we were attacked, without warning, by Japan at Pearl Harbor. To end the war, we invaded Europe, fought a desperate war for years across Europe and the Pacific, fire-bombed civilians in Germany, and dropped two atomic bombs on Japan. Calling for this with Iran is beyond the pale. It is the thinking of maniacs, fools, and ignoramuses.
Replying to @michaelbd
What people want is a final victory. WWII level shit. Quit playing around. Iran has been defeated military, no question. Now we must finish the job. Level the IRGC, by whatever means. Arm and supply the resistance. Total war. This dragging it out BS is what saps American will.
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How many in the War Harder crowd support President Trump's policies and actions on: 1) Immigration and deportation and 2) Tariffs?
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Someone should keep track of where the analysts, politicians, and pundits come out on World War Vance. This will be important as we head toward 2028 and beyond.
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Trump largely agrees with Vance’s “disloyalty.”
Marc is a friend and colleague. But we have disagreements. Still, the correct headline here is “Fox News Contributor Notices Vance’s Disloyalty.”
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See guys! We just needed to war harder and voters would have elected GOP majorities forever.
Mr. Vice-President, Please allow me to present a different perspective. The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it. This war should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. The second and third tiers of Iranian leadership should have been destroyed, and we should have supported the pro-western forces who could have taken leadership. We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East - and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism. Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency. In June 2025, America was not involved. This was an Israel vs Iran issue. No one forced the United States to attack Iran then, or in February of 2026. It was a decision made by President Trump. In my opinion, it was the right decision. Once the decision was made, we should not have stopped until the regime fell. But instead, you negotiated a cease fire that didn’t last, didn’t work and left us in no man’s land, with higher prices and our troops still deployed. Our troops could have been home, the Navy returned to its bases, a peaceful regime in place , new alliances forged, and gas prices below $3.00 a gallon. No, Mr. Vice President. It’s not the war. It’s the so-called cease fire.
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Important.
1. Ted Cruz has now joined JD Vance and Ron DeSantis in forcefully criticizing the Iran war and refocusing our attention on the economic circumstances of working class Americans. 2. That’s basically the entire field of Republican candidates for President. 3. And guess what? Anyone else who wants a real shot at being the Republican nominee is going to have to adopt pretty much the same approach. 4. This dynamic has been clearly visible since April, when the Trump administration tacked toward peace talks with Iran in an attempt to save the elections. 5. That was seven months ago. For seven months, we’ve been watching the administration struggling to extract itself from the trap of an ongoing war that the voters didn’t want. 6. The attempt failed—and the voters went to the ballot box on November 3 feeling disgusted, alienated, and betrayed by the Republican Party. 7. Maybe the scale of the voters’ repudiation of the GOP is surprising. But the dynamic that brought about this result is *exactly* the same one that we’ve been watching and talking about for seven months. 8. Maybe you didn’t know that a bitter and alienated public was what the administration was dealing with? Maybe you didn’t know that this was why these hopeless talks with the Iranians were taking place? 9. But if you didn’t know this was the main thing happening in U.S. electoral politics heading into the midterms, it seems like you should be asking yourself: *Why* didn’t I know? How did it happen that I was so completely cut off from political reality in America? 10. And if you’re in an especially introspective mood, you might also ask yourself: How did I behave when people tried to tell me what was happening? Did I try to understand what they were seeing? Or did I just attack anyone who was trying to explain reality to me? —end for now—
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They truly hate the President’s signature trade policy and are desperately trying to upend it.
Vice President Vance is mistaken.  The reason we Republicans lost yesterday is not just the war in Iran.  Yes, the resulting higher fuel prices contributed to the inflation that infuriated Americans who were promised lower prices by this administration.  But the war is not the only cause.  Arbitrary and capricious tariffs directly raised costs for all American consumers.  Lower income Americans can least afford them. Many voted for Democrats yesterday. Tariffs should be a central part, but only part, of the “honest conversation” VP Vance wants Republicans to have about the future of our party.  For instance, we all seem to oppose government-owned grocery stores.  But are we ok with government ownership of semiconductors companies and rare earth miners?  We oppose rent controls.  But do we support price controls on medicines and credit cards? The bigger question is does the Republican party now agree with the left that we need a large, powerful central government to run the economy, allocate capital and control prices? Or, do we believe that free men and women should be able to engage in commerce as they see fit and that a free enterprise system will create a higher standard of living and the greatest opportunities for the most people as it always has? Let’s have an “honest conversation.”
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