Caroline Elsom retweeted
I was pleased to host a delegation of British heads of political research institutes, as well as policy and business leaders.
We discussed the relationship between Israel and the United Kingdom and how to mend it.
Israel has good friends in the UK.
Caroline Elsom retweeted
The Budget is done, and in the spirit of staying positive in the face of tax rises (or, more accurately, tax shuffles), here are the team’s favourite announcements from Healey.
@EllieCraven__ , @JackPeters_W, @CarolineElsom, @marchong_joanna, @angusls1
Caroline Elsom retweeted
"The reality is this was a NOTHING burger budget"
@SirSimonClarke gives us a few post Budget thoughts...
Caroline Elsom retweeted
Onward's response to Healey's budget:
Responding to John Healey’s Budget 2026, Simon Clarke, director of Onward said:
“This Budget was a missed opportunity that means the choices the country faces will be even harder in the future. Britain is drowning in three trillion pounds of debt, while the Chancellor shuffled costs from one pocket to the next.
“Businesses and households should not enter into an unlucky draw every time the Budget comes around. Scrapping standing charges on gas bills only to load the cost onto gas usage is not relief. Raising the minimum and living wage in a way that prices young people out of work is not relief. Cutting business rates for the high street while hiking them for small firms trading online is not relief.
“The Chancellor needs to tackle the causes of our problems instead of trying to manage the symptoms. Britain is over-borrowed and over-taxed, but instead Labour keeps doubling down on trying to spend their way out of trouble.”
Caroline Elsom retweeted
🎃 A Halloween Horror Show?
It’s Budget Day tomorrow, and @ukonward will be there to provide detailed analysis.
Let’s hope the Government has the courage to take long term decisions in the national interest - not a Budget that defers hard choices and makes them worse.
Caroline Elsom retweeted
The Budget lands tomorrow!
No doubt there will be spooky surprises...
Here's what @SirSimonClarke is looking out for on behalf of Onward 👇
Caroline Elsom retweeted
Retail figures are out for September, and as we all could have guessed it doesn’t bode well for Healey
As I reported in the Spectator, they are down across the board 👇
Caroline Elsom retweeted
From @JamesKCraig: The Government can prevent disaster in Wandsworth conservativehome.com/2026/10…
👻My latest in ConHome about why the Prime Minister will be haunted by his own words on raising housing benefits at the Budget.
🎃Read the full report here: ukonward.com/reports/through…
💀(Please forgive the light use of Halloween-based puns...)
From @CarolineElsom Burnham's housing benefit bill is coming back to haunt him conservativehome.com/2026/10…
ALT a building with cars parked in front
Caroline Elsom retweeted
From @CarolineElsom Burnham's housing benefit bill is coming back to haunt him conservativehome.com/2026/10…
ALT a building with cars parked in front
Caroline Elsom retweeted
Written by the brilliant @CarolineElsom, we suggest the true baseline for spending on housing benefits in the private rented sector and the general needs social rented sector is set to exceed £40 billion by 2030/31, around £7.6 billion higher than the 2026 Spring Forecast indicates.
By the end of the next parliament in 2033/34, it is on course to have more than doubled since 2023/24 if the likely private rented sector uplift occurs.
This is why action matters.
Caroline Elsom retweeted
‼️ A big shout out for Through the Roof, a report published by @ukonward during Conservative Party Conference.
With a foreword by @Helen_Whately, we set out how current estimates for future housing welfare spending are implausibly low and build a more realistic baseline.
Our report then looks at how this higher projected spending can be brought under greater control quickly and without the need for new primary legislation, saving £4.5 billion a year by the end of the next parliament in 2033/34.
ukonward.com/reports/through…
More on why modelling by @OxfordEconomics for @ukonward on options for reforming IHT is far more robust than other numbers doing the rounds from @DanNeidle - and why the upsizing argument is overrated 👇
oxfordeconomics.com/resource…
Caroline Elsom retweeted
🚨 Important from @OxfordEconomics on why they stand fully behind their modelling of the cost of Inheritance Tax reform for @ukonward👇
oxfordeconomics.com/resource…
Caroline Elsom retweeted
My new piece looks at:
-Why Inheritance Tax is a bad tax,
-Why the number of families paying it will double under Labour
-Why so many other countries have abolished it,
-Why it's right to cut it,
-and why critics are wrong about the costs:
neilobrien.co.uk/p/cutting-i…
Caroline Elsom retweeted
A really important blog from @NeilDotObrien on Inheritance Tax👇
My new piece looks at:
-Why Inheritance Tax is a bad tax,
-Why the number of families paying it will double under Labour
-Why so many other countries have abolished it,
-Why it's right to cut it,
-and why critics are wrong about the costs:
neilobrien.co.uk/p/cutting-i…
Caroline Elsom retweeted
Hang on a minute - the idea that @OxfordEconomics are morons who didn't think about this is silly - they have spent months building a full model that aligns with earlier work IFS / Advani did - in contrast, Dan admits his simple model "over-predicts the number of taxpaying estates against HMRC’s outturn by about 1.6 times, and tax liabilities by about 1.45 times"
I know Oxford Economics are drafting a more detailed reply - this rapidly-written criticism of work by a v v serious group of economists is itself WAY off beam.
Caroline Elsom retweeted
IMPORTANT There’s been some debate today about the modelling conducted for @ukonward by @OxfordEconomics costing different reforms to Inheritance Tax - particularly from @DanNeidle.
Dan has been typically courteous, but we disagree with his assessment.
Oxford Economics response tonight is as follows:
“There are different possible methodological approaches. We have followed an approach that aligns closely with previous research by the IFS, as was acknowledged by the report’s author. Our back-testing indicated that the model performed very well in predicting the number of estates paying IHT and IHT liabilities historically.”
Caroline Elsom retweeted
Our latest report, commissioned by @ukonward, assesses the implications of reforms to IHT, showing how they can bring the number of liable estates closer to levels seen in the past and examining the trade-offs linked to these reforms.
Read more: oxfordeconomics.com/resource…
