Celsius Energy

Earlier this evening, I project that the realtime #natgas storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg reclaimed the +100 BCF level for the first time since September 15. With cooler temperatures on the way, expect the surplus to oscillate just on either side of +100 BCF for the rest of November. For more on my projected realtime storage levels: celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday…

#Natgas prices rose again today as the near-term temperature outlook continued to improve. A cold snap will drive Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) higher this weekend, but temperature will quickly moderate and push heating demand back down. The latest model trend, however, points to a potential reinforcing shot of colder air and higher GWDDs after November 22.

Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will retreat from record highs above 20 BCF/d back to 19.1 BCF/d, up just +0.6 BCF/d vs last year. However, this will be countered by a sharp drop in #natgas production back to 108.5 BCF/d, up just +0.3 BCF/d. This continues a trend in which year-over-year export gains are largely cancelled by supply gains.

As a result of the divergence in today’s temperature pattern versus last year, I am calculating a massive 13.8 BCF/day year-over-year decline in #natgas residential & commercial heating demand. This will drive the year-over-year storage deficit down by nearly 9 BCF to just -47 BCF.

With mild temperatures dominating the Lower 48 today but November 2025 dealing with an early-season arctic outbreak, there is an impressive spread in Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs). Today’s 9.4 GWDDs is a 5-year low for November 11 while 2025’s 29.5 GWDDs was a 5-year high, by a wide margin. This illustrates the increasing importance of temperature as a driver of day-to-day #natgas demand as we exit the Shoulder Season & enter the Winter Heating Season.

I update European #natgas storage daily between 3 PM and 4 PM ET on the site’s dedicated page which can be found here: celsiusenergy.net/p/european…

While temperatures will briefly moderate across Europe over the next 2-3 days, a reinforcing shot of unseasonably chilly temperatures will return to the continent this weekend as shown in the Figure below. I would not be surprised to see the #natgas storage deficit vs the 5-yr avg top -700 BCF over the next 7-10 days, at least temporarily.

The European #natgas storage withdrawal season is well underway as cooler-than-normal temperatures dominate the continent. Inventories are back at 5-yr lows and the deficit vs the 5-year avg has climbed from -575 BCF on October 29 to -652 BCF yesterday. Expect low European storage to maintain upward pressure on US LNG export demand.

LNG feedgas demand topped 20 BCF/d for the first time both Saturday and Sunday and will keep right on going today per early-cycle data, rising another +0.2 BCF/d to 20.25 BCF/d, up +2.2 BCF/d vs last year and a new all-time high. #Natgas

LNG export demand topped 20 BCF/d for the first time yesterday, a new all-time high. Per today’s early-cycle data, volumes will remain above 20 BCF/d, up +2.0 BCF/d vs last year. #Natgas

This gain in the #natgas share of the powerstack has been partially driven by lower wind, solar, and nuclear generation, but also by coal-to-gas switching, probably as a consequence of cheaper gas prices. The gas share of fossil fuel consumption (gas + coal) is consistently up 2%-4% vs 2025 over the past two weeks.

With cooling demand largely a non-factor this time of year, gains in powerburn have been driven by an increase in the #natgas share of the powerstack. Over the past week, this share has averaged 42%, up an enormous +5.9% year-over-year, the only fuel type to register any gain at all.

While #natgas production & LNG exports have both registered gains over the past month, largely cancelling each other out, the big winner in my opinion, has been the outperformance of powerburn, which has flown a bit under the radar. Over the past week, I calculate that powerburn has averaged a huge 34.7 BCF/d, up +5.7 BCF/d vs 2025.

Per yesterday’s CFTC’s latest money manager holdings data, #natgas speculative short positions now stand at 424,344 contracts, the highest since the great Bear Market of January-March 2020. It is the 9th highest short exposure on record, with the other 8 all occurring during that span. Just 32% of speculative positions are held long. Depending on your perspective, this either illustrates the strength of the bearish position or is a set-up for a short squeeze.

The near-term temperature outlook continued to improve today, particularly in the November 12-16 period. As shown in the Figure below, forecast GWDDs for this period have been particularly volatile, ranging from 12 GWDDs/day to 20 GWDDs/day over the past 72 hrs, but are now at the very top of that range, which is just above the 5-yr avg. The forecast thereafter quickly moderates, however, so more work needs to be done to sustain higher #natgas prices.

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While LNG export demand has climbed to record highs, #natgas production has also extended its own recovery, topping 110 BCF/d yesterday based on my calculated pipeline data. Year-over-year production gains roughly offset LNG export gains. Don’t be surprised to see output reach new highs above 112 BCF/d before the end of the year, if not this month.

Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will rise to 19.8 BCF/d, up +2.9 BCF/d vs last year & a new all-time high, just topping the 19.75 BCF/d from Oct 18. Today’s gain will be driven by gains at Corpus Christi & Freeport. As is always the case, especially the latter, we will have to see if this holds up in tonight’s late-cycle data. #Natgas