Portfolio Manager at SilverCape • USIC '24 & ‘25 (+522%) 羊牛成群结队，猛兽总是独行 No posts should be misconstrued as financial advice. My only account.
Hong Kong
Joined November 2021
- Tweets8.1K
- Following146
- Followers20K
- Likes18.5K
Pinned Tweet
7 years in and I can safely say I've done something right to have @RichardMoglen and the @TraderLion team kindly grace me with an interview! 😆
It's a long one but hopefully my review of 2025 can bring you back to pivotal moments that made it such a special year! 📈
youtube.com/watch?v=zw96qkUn…
Clement Ang retweeted
Bear markets / deep corrections can be brutal and can be the ultimate drainer of both your financial + mental capital.
Take this period of time to quiet the mind, refine your edge, and for skilled short-sellers: a fun challenge to take advantage of a market down cycle.
The past two weeks was not only great being able to meet many successful individuals, but also very healing as it brought about perspective into where I stand re: how the year has gone for myself.
June - September was probably the roughest trading stretch I've ever had since turning things around in 2024/25. And in those few months I've been very harsh with myself with the 'should've, could've, and would'ves'. That ate away at me mentally, which very obviously spilled into performance for those months.
'Should is shame' and I realized it was my ego shaming myself - I've since learnt to let it go and really focus on process. Heck, I've had a fantastic 2026 all things considered, I need to learn to be more grateful 🤣.
On the point of process, the past few months have made me re-evaluate my digital footprint on social media as well. Being on a platform where everyone is always a 'winner' has truly added a lot of noise into my own headspace, which to a certain extent deviated me from my own process/judgement.
This realization became very apparent when I've traded in isolation on holiday the last two weeks - my performance turned around dramatically. I don't need to learn another technique; what I need to learn is to master the mental game of trading.
So to those struggling out there, have some grace towards yourself. Absolutely make sure to take care of yourself and learn to step away sometimes if you feel like things are too much to handle. The better times are ahead!
(Also means that I will post more memes going forward sporadically because what's the point of doing this trading thing if you're not having fun! 🤡)
Clement Ang retweeted
Market Awareness:
Rising Open-Weight Model Adoption
MS's Top Picks:
$TEAM $NET $CRWD $DDOG $MSFT $MDB $NTNX $PLTR $SAP $NOW
開源權重模型飆升至72%份額：大摩稱軟件紅利非普惠，價值將流向護城河最深、掌控複雜工作流的公司
(From 富途牛牛智通財經APP)：
A) Background
過去一年，AI模型格局正在發生一場靜悄悄卻深刻的重構。摩根士丹利在10月26日發佈的研報中給出了一組極具衝擊力的數據：
在第三方模型路由平台OpenRouter上，開源權重模型處理token的份額，已從一年前的約22%飆升至如今的約72%；
在Vercel的AI網關平台上，這一比例更是從2025年12月的7%躍升至63%。
這組數字背後是一個明確的信號：開發者正加速湧向單位成本更低的開源模型，去處理日益增多的常規工作流。
而摩根士丹利的核心判斷是——這波浪潮對軟件行業整體是「建設性」的，但紅利絕非普惠，最終的價值將流向那些護城河最深、掌控複雜工作流的公司。
B) 成本驟降，但「省錢」並非故事的全部
大摩強調，開源模型的意義不在於「模型變便宜了」，而在於「生產有用智能的成本系統性下降，而智能的消費量可以急劇放大」。對軟件公司而言，這打開了兩個截然不同的機會。
第一個機會是擴大「經濟上可行的工作流」範圍，從而拓寬使用場景和用量——但這扇門同樣對競爭對手敞開。
第二個機會更具差異性：更便宜的智能讓企業上下文、可信數據、遙測、安全執行、交易處理與治理這些廠商「獨家掌控的資產」變得更有價值。凡是這些能力難以被複制的地方，廠商就更有底氣維持乃至提高定價。
換句話說，真正的贏家不是簡單地把成本優勢讓渡給客戶的公司，而是能同時抓住「更大的可變現機會」與「更強的定價權」的公司。
C) 三大分歧：主權、單客經濟與獲客
圍繞開源模型的落地，報告梳理了三個關鍵辯論。
其一，數據主權風險是否會阻礙企業採用？看多方認爲，Nemotron 4、Mistral Large 4等西方開源模型正迅速逼近領先國際對手的能力，將撬動此前猶豫不決的企業客戶；看空方則擔心歐美企業因地緣、聲譽與安全顧慮仍持謹慎態度。
大摩的關鍵區分在於：「模型在哪裏開發」與「模型如何託管、治理和監控」是兩回事——超大規模雲廠商完全可以通過區域託管、加密、細粒度訪問控制和持續監控來化解企業顧慮。
其二，開源模型能否改善AI的「單客經濟」？看多方列舉三大好處：擺脫對昂貴專有API的依賴、可針對特定流程微調、掌控部署環境與推理優化。看空方的反駁同樣犀利：這些優勢對AI原生創業公司、雲廠商和自建能力的客戶同樣成立，最終可能演變爲降價、切換成本下降，以及從「按席位計價」滑向「按任務/按結果計價」的商業模式侵蝕。
其三，開源策略能否撬動新客與擴容用戶池？大摩認爲，更低的推理成本讓「產品驅動增長」(PLG)模式真正跑通，但同樣的模型人人可用，因此回報最終仍歸屬擁有專有數據、深度客戶工作流認知與監管壁壘的公司。
D) 四條賽道的冷熱不均
落到具體板塊，摩根士丹利的結論呈現出清晰的「馬太效應」。
在基礎設施軟件領域，開源模型整體利好。
1. 核心數據平台
$MSFT, Databricks, $MDB, $ORCL, $PLTR, $SNOW
將因AI代理對實時、受權限管控的企業上下文需求而迎來更高查詢量與更廣用例；
2. 可觀測性廠商
$DDOG $DT $ESTC
將因代理產生海量新trace與治理需求而受益。
3. 網絡安全是另一大結構性贏家。
$CRWD $PANW $OKTA
模型供給的爆炸式增長意味着企業內運行的AI代理數量激增，攻擊面隨之擴大——模型供應鏈完整性、提示注入、機器身份氾濫、未經授權的自主執行、跨工作流的數據外泄，都成爲新的安全缺口。
4. 橫向SaaS的機會在於「從席位定價轉向結果/用量定價」，微軟陣營中 $TEAM $CRM $NOW 領跑大盤，Box、Figma、Zoom、Wix領跑中小盤。垂直軟件則憑藉「低自動化市場+結果對齊計價+深度工作流掌控」三重優勢，讓 $SHOP $TOST $MANH $NAVN $TTAN 成爲最大受益者。
E) 大洗牌
大摩指出，開源權重模型的普及，本質上是在把「智能」快速商品化。當模型的壁壘被抹平，競爭的重心就從「誰有更好的模型」，轉向「誰掌握更深的護城河、更復雜的流程與更難的被複制的數據資產」。
對投資者而言，這意味着一場重新定價：那些僅有單一功能、缺乏專有數據、依賴簡單工作流的「點解決方案」公司，將在這場成本下行的浪潮中被邊緣化。
Clement Ang retweeted
Nobody knows where we will go we can just study what we see, and here is an important nuance.
Improvement in breadth can be different depending on the context. And here is something many miss, you will almost always get an improved breadth/uptick in breadth before the real decline starts. I call it forced rotation.
Before everything sells off we must rotate into defensive as we have.
Chart below, make your own conclusions just highlighting a subtle observation easily missed.
After significant breadth deterioration that first uptick in breadth is o
Crude/Brent: Sooooo...... do we go to $150 now that everyone doesn't believe we go to $150? (Inverse of what everyone believed in late March)
Clement Ang retweeted
The six most important things we look at when we consider a trade
1. Price
2. Price
3. Price
4. Risk
5. Risk
6. Risk
We do NOT NOT NOT consider fundamental narratives
Maybe I'm not smart enough, but this feels like the consensus view nowadays. Also an interview with lots of buzzwords thrown with little substance (again, maybe I don't understand and not smart enough):
youtube.com/watch?v=s9p-SLVY…
Clement Ang retweeted
$MRNA with the single most hilarious possible outcome in this study. EFS HR 0.58. Down the the hundredth, EXACTLY what *NEO*-adjuvant treatment with pembro yielded against adjuvant pembro (the nerfed comparator $MRNA studied against) in SWOG S1801.
What does this mean in English? $MRNA’s drug is showing the exact same benefit versus adjuvant pembrolizumab as NEOadjuvant pembrolizumab did.
Even more simply? If you just give patients a few doses of the pembrolizumab BEFORE you cut their cancer out, you do what $MRNA does for you, except with just the free tumor that’s already inside your body. No need to pay for this $400K drug.
And this makes rational sense, right? The whole point of $MRNA’s vaccine is to produce stuff that looks like the tumor.
You know what looks A LOT like the tumor does? THE FREAKING TUMOR!!!!!!
Absolutely poetic that $MRNA produced the EXACT HR benefit as neoadjuvant pembro did. Truly, the most hilarious possible outcome.
Now can we move on from this bullshit? $MRK and $MRNA should feel free to study their vaccine against the REAL standard of care now - NEOadjuvant immunotherapy.
From my perspective, this has been total fugaze, and an amateurish pump and dump worthy of much lesser enterprises.
Clement Ang retweeted
"Go play tennis" 😂
youtu.be/aJWQpcXyIIQ?is=x4vP…
8:57
@CFlanders7 @Trader_mcaruso @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
@Clement_Ang17 its going viral
🎾 is the new 🎣
Now this is a typical AI name in the US market.
Not saying the same will play out but just a thought that when names go on generational runs, starts a stage 3 distribution pattern and can potentially roll into a stage 4 decline - I want out. No amount of secondary indicators can back a bullish case when an overwhelming number of charts in the market from a former leading group look like this.
Only price pays!
This is what a typical AI name in the HK market looks like, there's no way I'm buying/hodling, or yolo-ing calls, or buying when its fearful because it has been pretty fearful for a long time!
#eatmahshorts 😜🤪
This is what a typical AI name in the HK market looks like, there's no way I'm buying/hodling, or yolo-ing calls, or buying when its fearful because it has been pretty fearful for a long time!
#eatmahshorts 😜🤪
Clement Ang retweeted
They are all lying, I like to look at their cash allocation.
Chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com
Clement Ang retweeted
One thing that bothers me a lot is that my market regime model refuses to flip bullish. Zero bullish signals since we topped.
You will see various lazy trend models that flip bullish and bearish all the time, that is not what this is.
This is a proprietary backtested multivariable model that captures the stability of the market and how conducive it is for swing trading.
And people will tell you how can a model be bearish while the market is at ATHs, and my answer is do you trade the S&P? How is your swing trading going in growths stocks?
Stats from the backtest below, updates daily on @TSFAnalytics
Bear markets / deep corrections can be brutal and can be the ultimate drainer of both your financial + mental capital.
Take this period of time to quiet the mind, refine your edge, and for skilled short-sellers: a fun challenge to take advantage of a market down cycle.
The past two weeks was not only great being able to meet many successful individuals, but also very healing as it brought about perspective into where I stand re: how the year has gone for myself.
June - September was probably the roughest trading stretch I've ever had since turning things around in 2024/25. And in those few months I've been very harsh with myself with the 'should've, could've, and would'ves'. That ate away at me mentally, which very obviously spilled into performance for those months.
'Should is shame' and I realized it was my ego shaming myself - I've since learnt to let it go and really focus on process. Heck, I've had a fantastic 2026 all things considered, I need to learn to be more grateful 🤣.
On the point of process, the past few months have made me re-evaluate my digital footprint on social media as well. Being on a platform where everyone is always a 'winner' has truly added a lot of noise into my own headspace, which to a certain extent deviated me from my own process/judgement.
This realization became very apparent when I've traded in isolation on holiday the last two weeks - my performance turned around dramatically. I don't need to learn another technique; what I need to learn is to master the mental game of trading.
So to those struggling out there, have some grace towards yourself. Absolutely make sure to take care of yourself and learn to step away sometimes if you feel like things are too much to handle. The better times are ahead!
(Also means that I will post more memes going forward sporadically because what's the point of doing this trading thing if you're not having fun! 🤡)
