And it makes little difference if Australia continues using a 2005 baseline for these targets, or makes use of the COP28 2019 baseline. This is because Australia’s emissions have changed very little over the past two decades ☹️

To do its bit, Australia needs a 67% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 2005, 90% by 2035, and 100% by 2040 if we use a GHG emissions budget consistent with a 50% chance of 1.5C. (More analysis on this here - climate-resource.com/reports…)

Now that the dust is settling on COP28, and with Australia pushing its bid for COP31 in 2026, let’s assess Australia’s existing climate targets and consider what it needs to do to show leadership.

Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit. Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies. Full briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/n…

The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals? Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C. Here an overview of all the main studies on it. See more at: climate-resource.com/tools/n…

Today Climate Resource released its 2023 briefing on likely future global temperature rise, with comparisons of our projections to recent assessments by UNEP, UNFCCC, the IEA and others - COP28: Entering a 1.5°C world, it’s time for a fossil fuel exit - climate-resource.com/tools/n…

But, with the stagnating progress towards stronger NDCs, COP28 success will likely be measured by whether an equally decisive agreement is reached on the phase-out of fossil fuels. This phaseout should reach at least 90% by 2035 at the latest.

This would more than double our estimate of renewable energy capacity reflected in 2030 NDCs and conform with 1.5°C aligned pathways in the scientific literature.

If all countries achieve their NDCs and long-term targets in full and on time - without non-additional carbon offsets, and without accounting tricks - our optimistic temperature projection slightly improves to 1.8-1.9 °C (median projections) with a range from 1.4°C to 2.8°C

Will we see 1.5C global-mean temperatures? Yes. Will the 1.5C target be lost? No. #COP27 #auspol See full report here: data.climateresource.com.au/…