The Club and Sub Podcast

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Going LIVE for a solo show at 7!

Literally handing out free money here folks. Enter the contest!

2.03u Almakhan -135 💰 2.74u Barriault -137 💰

GM and happy #UFC315. Currently en route to the airport to fly to Montreal and hang with @MMAGigaChad at the event! So will keep this much shorter than usual, thoughts below: Muhammad 65%: Jack has youth, output and finishing equity on his side, but IMO big grappling edge for Belal that should carry him. Fiorot 60%: might look dumb if Shev gets her game going, but she’s 36 and has looked slower for years now. Feel fiorot output and physicality will get the job done. BSD 90%: Lol. Smash fight for Benoit, should out grapple easily. Aldo 65%: should be a low volume counter boxing match. Just favor Aldo to be much better at that game. Silva 70%: if Grasso can cut her off should be competitive. But feel Silva is simply better with much better footwork and much better defense, Malott 67%: tempted by the over tbh. Think Malott should he able to out maneuver Chuck on the feet and could have a decent grappling edge. Jasudavicius 65% (1u Andrade +260): has had a grappling edge here, but not convinced it will be easy to get it going. Big striking edge on the feet for Andrade and a significant step up in comp for Jas. Cutelaba 60% (2.16u Cutelaba -108): cardio edge for Buk that could carry him down the stretch. But imo big edges in hardware, grappling and strength of comp for Cutelaba, enough for me to firmly favor him. Stirling 65%: May enter on Erslan here. Big prove it spot for Stirling. He’s much more talented but very green and taking a large step up against a very experienced and dangerous opponent. Barriault 65% (2.74u Barriault -137): Bruno is very live to kill MAB early. But he’s looked about as washed as it gets lately. Expect if MAB is able to work into the fight he’ll break Bruno and likely finish him. Lee 55%: was tempted Santos but he’s giving away a ton of size and power here. He also looked wretched at weigh ins IMO. Think this will be a fun war but have to favor Lee on size and hardware. Almakhan 63% (2.03u Almakhan -135): Katona has UFC experience and toughness on his side. But Katona really never separated from anyone if he doesn’t have a big grappling edge. Feel Bekzat should compete fine on minutes and think he has large edges in finishing equity and moment equity. Enough for me to make him a moderate favorite. Best of luck! 🥂

GM Happpppppy #UFC312 fight day. Kind of an underwhelming card for a PPV, but always grateful for fights. Thoughts below: Du Plessis 65%: First fight was obviously super competitive and it wouldn't be a shock if this was too. Having said that though, there's just so much ore upside on DDP. More likely to have significant grappling success, more likely to finish by a large margin and more likely to land critical hits and round winning strikes. Comfortable making DDP a moderate favorite. Suarez 65% (3.6u Suarez -120): Bummed to have missed the plus money here, waited all week for Zhang buyback but never came. Ultimately though i feel we've seen more than enough of Zhang on bottom to have a pretty good idea of what happens if Suarez gets on top: easily controlled and likely gives up damage. Can Zhang sprawl and brawl the best female MMA wrestler ever? Possible (and i do think Suarez isn't nearly as athletic as she once was), but I have a hard time saying that with any real degree of confidence. Think moderate fav Suarez makes more sense than a near pickem line. Tafa/Teixeira 50% (2u Tafa +125): Should be a banger for however long it lasts. Teixeira has obvious physical intangible edges. But he's also far less experienced, slower and quite easy to hit. Think this is a brawl and happy to make a small wager on Tafa as such. Bellato 60%: Tried to make an argument in my head for Crute, and i do think there's one to be made on experience and level of comp, but ultimately hard to get there. Crute is less physical, coming off a large layoff, easy to hit and potentially fragile against a guy in Bellato who won't stop coming forward. Do think there's potentially a lot of grappling upside for Crute here, but Don't trust him to fight optimally. Matthews 73% (3.9u Matthews -195): Could prado blitz an dead Matthews early? Certainly. But short of that i feel it's a very uphill battle. Matthews is better at every facet of MMA by a considerable margin, is a decent bit larger and if he ever gets on top will likely be able to do whatever he pleases. Considering a poke on the plus money under, but ultimately think as long as he doesn't get insta killed Matthews should deal with Prado accordingly. Santos 70% (3.72u Santos -186): Jenkins is a quality fighter, but he's up against it here IMO. His best path to victory is to get his calf kicks going, but i think he'll have trouble with Santos' speed and power on the feet. In the grappling Santos has a massive edge and i'd think he can control or potentially finish on top. Borschev 55%: Considering a play on Slava here depending what this line does. Should have a massive striking edge. Having said that there are very obvious concerns with Borschev's durability and his inability to grapple. The grappling hole gives me enough pause that i'll prob pass as it's easily exploitable and Nolan seems to know the game plan. Wang 75%: Wang's loss to Fernandes was ugly from an optics perspective. But it was also a massive comeback by Fernandes who had otherwise gotten beaten up pretty good prior to hurting Wang. Could Brasil duplicate Fernandes finish? Possibly, but i think she's pretty out gunned everywhere in this fight and don't really love her moving up in weight. Think Wang probably cruises and potentially KOs Brasil. Topuria 75%: Live on Thicknesse could be interesting if he can survive the first 6-7 minutes. But ultimately think he's just giving up way too much in the athleticism/speed/power departments to really think he wins this at any decent clip. Expect Topuria to hurt and finish Thicknesse early much more often than not. Steele 72%: Think Rong can compete early in this fight. On the feet he should be able to put hands on Kody a fair amount. Having said that, even if they stay standing for 15 I expect Kody's pace, pressure and attritional work to eventually pay dividends and allow him to take over on the back end. Couple that dynamic with potentially huge grappling upside from Steele and it's easy to understand why he's a large favorite. Jousset 75% (4.2u Jousset -205): Micallef is going to try and push the same kind of game Brian Battle did against Jousset. I just don't really think he has the physicality and athleticism to pull it off. Maybe he gets a takedown or two, but I'd be surprised by him controlling Jousset. He can cage press a fair amount but I suspect Jousset will massively out land him in the clinch and possibly even throw him into top position. On the feet I feel the edge for Jousset is very large. I feel Micallef is drawing to a pretty close decision whereas Jousset could conceivably run through him, big fav Jousset makes sense to me. Sallkilld 80%: Line is prob a tad wide but I think Sallkilld is a pretty good prospect. Ton of physicality, great cardio, pushes grappling and does great attritional work, all things that seem pretty bad for Jubli. That said I could imagine Jubli competing early in this fight, just feel he'll eventually break to the pace dynamic. Maybe a live entry on Sallkilld.