Family. First. Forever. Take care of the blood that your love runs through. Bitcoin = Freedom Move Out. Draw Fire.
Joined April 2023
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Battle scars change a man.
Well done, Larry.
I was investing in 2000 (43 yo managing a $200m venture fund). I was investing in 2008 (51 yo managing a private hedge fund). I was investing in 2020 (63 yo managing a mining stock fund). Each represented the bursting of a bubble. Thursday, November 5, 2026 was deja vu for me. I have seen this movie three times.
Party is over. Consequences of ZIRP, and free money driven "Everything Bubble" are coming home. Persistent inflation is the pin. Stock bulls better rethink their buy the dip strategy IMO. It's a long way down.
An idiot examining his own life will not lead to a better idiot.
Check on everything except #9.
Excellent health. But sports, airborne school, and being a combat tank commander exact a toll on a young man's body that an old man can't undo.
Move out. Draw fire.
REAL LUXURIES OF ADULT LIFE
1. A paid-off car
2. Quiet neighbors
3. Money left after payday
4. Zero credit card debt
5. Peace at home
6. Drinking coffee without rushing
7. Waking up without an alarm
8. Taking a trip without financing it
9. A body that doesn't hurt
10. Owning your weekends
11. Saying "no" without feeling guilty
12. Buying groceries without doing math
13. An emergency fund that's actually funded
14. People you can completely trust
15. Not being terrified of the future
What could possibly go awry?
I think we'll know soon.
F*ck YES... my Grok Bot usage went from 100% to 34% without turning off a single bot
Elon just said it costs more to run than it earns, so the limits aren't going back up
Last week my meter hit 100% in 2 days with 12 bots, half of it burned while I slept
Most of it was never the work, it was bots waking up to check if there was work
The 6 lines I pasted into every bot:
→ "Wake up when a task lands, never on a timer"
→ "If nothing changed, stop in one step"
→ "Read your last summary, not the whole chat"
→ "Finish with 5 lines, the next run starts there"
→ "Ask me before anything over 20 minutes"
→ "One report at 8 AM, not a message per task"
Paste them tonight and check your meter at breakfast
Then read how a whole Grok Bot team runs while you sleep in the article below ↓
In case you misunderstood...
Customers Lose Nothing in Binance Hack
Binance’s Own Hot Wallets Were Drained, Not Customers
The funds taken in today’s Binance hack came from the exchange’s own hot wallets (operational reserves it controls), not from any individual customer accounts, so no user balances were reduced or lost.
Binance has stated user funds remain completely safe and will be fully covered.
Our team is doing everything we can to support in the current situation, including blocking sends to compromised wallets. We've also reached out to Binance to offer our help.
Moments like this call for the industry to work together. Openly sharing any useful information and helping to protect customers should come first, regardless of which platform they use. If you can do anything to help, please do!
Crypto has been through many tough times, and has always come out stronger on the other side. This won’t be any different.
Target. Fire for Effect.
Sightbringer nails it once again.
⚡️The real unit being discussed is not money.
It is uncommitted future time.
Every fixed obligation reaches forward and pre-spends part of your future before you arrive there. Mortgage, car note, lifestyle, dependents, subscriptions, debt service, social expectations. Enough of those stacked together and your future stops being open territory.
It becomes collateral.
That is why burn rate is fundamentally about sovereignty.
A person with low obligations can absorb uncertainty without immediately surrendering decision quality. They can wait. They can walk. They can refuse. They can take asymmetric risks. They can endure a bad year without selling themselves cheaply.
A person with high obligations can look wealthy while living under permanent compulsion.
The trap is subtle because modern culture rewards visible consumption while hiding the liability structure underneath it. Bigger house, better car, nicer everything. The outside looks like progress while the inside becomes less free.
And this matters far more in the world now forming.
Career continuity is weakening. Expertise is depreciating faster. AI is compressing labor demand. Income paths are becoming less predictable. In that environment, high personal burn behaves like leverage on an asset whose cash flows are becoming more volatile.
That is dangerous.
The strongest position is therefore not maximal consumption.
It is maximum optionality per unit of income.
Because optionality lets you survive long enough to catch the right move.
And the deepest form of wealth is probably this:
How much of your future still belongs to you?
That is what low burn protects.
If your Gen Z Children/Grandchildren believe they need to earn $588,000 a year to be successful, then you've failed them on every level.
⚡️A generation is losing faith in the idea that ordinary success will ever produce extraordinary freedom. And that changes the economic behavior of an entire civilization.
The $588,000 figure reveals something deeper than inflation or housing affordability.
Young Americans are trying to compress thirty years of wealth accumulation into five.
Why?
Because the old bargain increasingly looks unreliable.
Spend twenty years building a career. Save diligently. Buy property. Accumulate investments. Eventually become financially independent.
That arrangement depends on three assumptions: that your labor remains valuable, that assets remain accessible, and that time works in your favor.
All three are under pressure.
AI threatens the durability of professional income. Asset appreciation rewards those who already possess capital. Social media exposes everyone to the lifestyles of people who have already escaped ordinary economic constraints.
Now the underlying psychology changes.
The younger generation increasingly wants enough money to stop depending on the very system it was taught to succeed within.
That is what the $588,000 represents psychologically: escape velocity.
The figure is also inflated by exposure to exceptional wealth. Six-figure incomes have become psychologically ordinary in an environment where multimillionaires populate everyone’s feeds. But that distortion compounds the structural problem.
And here is the consequence that deserves attention.
When people stop believing incremental progress will deliver financial independence, their appetite for nonlinear outcomes increases.
Entrepreneurship. Crypto. Concentrated investments. Speculation. Leverage. The pursuit of a single breakthrough capable of bypassing decades of accumulation.
Some will succeed spectacularly. Many will sacrifice their financial security chasing the escape.
The economic danger is that patience itself begins losing credibility.
And AI adds another dimension: the traditional promise that investing in your own professional capabilities will produce steadily increasing compensation is becoming less dependable.
The most likely trajectory is a widening divide between people who own productive assets and people whose primary asset is their ability to work.
That divide increasingly cuts across age, education, and even high-income professions.
The deepest conclusion is this:
When a generation stops believing the ladder leads anywhere worth reaching, the lottery begins to look like a legitimate alternative.
And when that psychology spreads, it changes how people invest, work, form families, take risks, and relate to the institutions governing their lives.
That is the real signal beneath the $588,000.
Bandit-Red-One retweeted
What’s interesting is that calling out a grifter for being a grifter is often considered negative or even “toxic”.
It has given me a new appreciation for the use of the word “toxic” in larger societal debates.
What is actually toxic is grifting/lying/cheating. Even the immediate forgiving, not to mention defending, of those behaviors is enabling a grifter, which is also “toxic”.
Those who call out bad behavior for what it is, and make no excuses for it, prevent our society from disintegrating.
What is the point of a society in which bad actors are not punished and good actors are not rewarded? Who wants to exist in that society?
Call out grifters and grifts when you see them. Tell the truth no matter how poorly received it is. @jdwagner17
Fear not.
There will always be chaos and rumors of chaos.
See that you are not alarmed, for this is Bitcoin.
Never ignore a betrayal. Never.
“Unfortunately, a human being is able to comprehend only that amount of evil which he is able to commit himself.”
- Joseph Brodsky
“Good people can't out-think evil, 'cause evil think of things good folks can't think of."
- Orson Scott Card
The underwater @Metaplanet shareholders are the group I'm most puzzled by.
It wouldn't have been hard for Metaplanet to course correct in August-September, when their investor base gave them ample opportunity. Their most vocal bulls-turned-critics told them exactly what it would take. This whole saga was unnecessary and avoidable, which is what makes it so sad.
It wouldn't even be that hard to course correct now. But Stockholm-syndrome investors defending their status quo are enabling the very behavior that keeps the stock discounted, excusing basic fiduciary, transparency, and engagement lapses and making it just comfortable enough for management to tread water until the next bull market / pref launch bails them out.
The company is being valued at a 22% discount (CEBE mNAV) to its bitcoin and management is in bunker mode, hiding behind narrowly tailored statements that raise more questions than they answer. Were it not for the persistent (and worsening) management baggage since the 10th Series scandal emerged, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be trading at least at book value today, and it’s unlikely the investor community would be pulling so hard on several other alarming threads. How are shareholders ok with this?
$MSTR, $ASST, and $SWC are now clearly the BTCTC benchmarks for governance and transparency, and I don't think the market will give Metaplanet special dispensation. Anyone buying at today’s deep NAV discount will likely see strong returns from Bitcoin and mechanical accretion (regardless of management culture, and assuming they can actually launch their prefs). But until the leadership culture changes, I suspect a sleaze discount will drag on their multiple vs peers, and remaining shareholders will carry that opportunity cost.
Maybe that's naive, and their execution will be so extraordinary the market won't care. I don’t have a crystal ball, and reserve the possibility of that timeline. But I still don't understand why remaining investors wouldn't push management to close the governance and transparency gap with its direct peers. It’s one of the strangest dynamics I’ve seen in my two decades of investing 🤷♂️
If I still owned $MTPLF / $MPJPY, pressuring leadership to match its peers on transparency, shareholder engagement, and incentive alignment would be my number one priority.
I'm out of the stock, but I'll keep poking when I see bad-faith whitewashing or new revelations that deserve sunlight. I care deeply about Bitcoin and the treasury thesis, and enabling this behavior is a bad look for a sector with a high mountain left to climb toward deca-trillion legitimacy.
"Convenience is how people voluntarily surrender sovereignty."
Simon nailed it. Again.
The convergence of the Financial Industrial Complex (FIC) and Technical Industrial Complex (TIC) is accelerating.
First, banks captured your money.
Then, Big Tech captured your data.
Now, AI agents want your credit card details, purchasing decisions and permission to transact on your behalf.
The next phase is AI becoming the interface between you and the financial system via your social credit score.
Who controls the AI?
Who controls the payment rails?
Who owns the data?
Who gets to approve, deny or censor transactions?
Convenience is how people voluntarily surrender sovereignty.
This is why I distinguish Bitcoin in self-custody from crypto, stablecoins, tokenised securities and custodial financial products.
The more convenient the system becomes, the more important it is to understand who controls it.
You may as well drive generational hatred while you're at it.
Divide & Conquer. Don't fall for it.
Judgment is your weapon. Sharpen it.
"The ability to recognize what is actually true will become increasingly rare."
They only shoot messengers who tell the truth.
🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺🇪🇺 It was never about defending democracy in Ukraine.
It was a CIA-backed coup and covert operation designed to provoke a Russian invasion.
Russia took the bait willingly.
The CIA and Russian intelligence services, including the FSB, SVR and GRU, played their respective roles in turning Ukraine into a battleground.
Europe became more dependent on the FIC.
The MIC profited from the war.
The TIC gained a testing ground for new military and surveillance technologies.
Ukrainians were the pawns.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
youtube.com/shorts/DxhpBWyQD…
I remember how pumped the boys and I were when BTC hit $1B market cap in March 2013.
Those early day meetups were the best.
