Post Open Source

Follow up: Egypt watches as Ethiopia takes the Su 35s Cairo walked away from. What is new: Ethiopia's first batch of Russian Su 35 fighters appears to be the same aircraft Egypt ordered, then abandoned over fears of US CAATSA sanctions. Ethiopia is also lined up for four S 400 long range air defense batteries, possibly Turkey's systems that the UAE had sought after Israeli lobbying. via EGYOSINT

🚨 Iran says it downed an American drone over Hormuz. The IRGC claims its forces shot down a US MQ 1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz. There is no confirmation from Washington so far. via OSINT613

Arab states want a stable Israeli government. A diplomat from an Arab country with ties to Israel told Kan News that Israel's next government needs to be stable and have broad public legitimacy. Only that kind of government could advance regional diplomacy, the diplomat said. No Arab country has officially commented on the election results yet. via OSINT613

🚨 North Korea fires a barrage of 12 ballistic missiles. Pyongyang launched 12 short range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan), South Korea's Yonhap news agency reports. A salvo this large is a deliberate show of force, and it comes with the region already on edge. via OSINT613

🚨 Follow up: why General Brett Sylvia was really fired. What is new: the Pentagon says Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia was removed after being investigated for allegedly leaking classified information about the Iran war and the Russia Ukraine war, according to The Hill. A three star general accused of leaking war secrets is a serious blow, and it comes as Washington weighs strikes on Iran. via OSINT613

Cartel gunmen, now with satellite internet. Mexican cartel members posted a video of themselves on patrol, heavily armed and carrying a SpaceX Starlink terminal. One gunman is seen with an FN SCAR 17S rifle, very likely smuggled in from the United States. via war_noir

Another shakeup at the top of the Army. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ousted Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia this week, according to sources cited by The Atlantic and The Hill. via OSINT613

Bahrain's fighter pilots may be in the Saudi fight. A photo released by the Saudi Defense Ministry during Chief of Staff General Fayyadh Al Ruwaili's visit to King Khalid Air Base in southwestern Saudi Arabia shows a Royal Bahraini Air Force major wearing the patch of the 1st Tactical Fighter Squadron, the "Desert Falcons." The squadron flies F 16C/D jets out of Sheikh Isa Air Base and was never publicly known to operate abroad. A Pakistan Air Force member is also visible in the background. via OSINTWarfare

🚨 A fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite imagery has picked up a blaze in the Strait of Hormuz in the last hour, and it looks like a ship may have been targeted. No word yet on which vessel it is or who was behind it. via AB4_Ali3

🚨 Missile alerts across Saudi Arabia. The Saudi National Early Warning Platform has issued an alert in the Eastern Province, and sirens are sounding there. A second alert has now gone out in Najran Province on the Yemen border. This follows reports that the Houthis launched ballistic missiles toward the Eastern Province, home to the Kingdom's main oil facilities. Unverified local reports also speak of explosions near the Ras Tanura refinery. via OSINT613, OSINTWarfare and AB4_Ali3

A massive blast at a factory in Volta Redonda, Brazil. Video from earlier today shows the moment of the explosion. via OSINT613

🚨 Nuclear incident declared in South Carolina. The FAA has issued temporary flight restrictions over the Savannah River Site, the Energy Department's nuclear facility in South Carolina, citing a "U.S. Government Nuclear Incident." Airspace is closed in a 15 nautical mile radius, from the surface up to 10,000 feet. No word yet on what happened or whether there is any risk to the public. via OSINT613

More Apaches for Morocco. The Royal Moroccan Armed Forces held a ceremony on Monday, October 26, at the First Air Base in Salé to receive six US made AH 64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters, the third batch delivered to the Royal Moroccan Air Force. via OSINTWarfare

🚨 Follow up: what Vance's message to Tehran actually says. What is new: according to Axios, citing US officials, Vice President JD Vance's message to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's National Security Council, makes clear that any talks to head off US military strikes "require discussions on the nuclear issue," something Iran rejects. Iranian sources are already calling the latest high level US message a list of impossible demands and threats. via AB4_Ali3

🚨 The Gulf is bracing for a US strike campaign on Iran. According to AP sources, Washington has warned its regional allies to prepare for several days of possible US military strikes against Iran. Regional governments are getting ready, but officials fear the fight may not stay short: Iran and its proxies could retaliate against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure, turning it into a much wider and longer war. via OSINT613

Meet "King Shar Shar," the man who ran for prime minister of Israel. He wears a gold crown said to be worth $75,000, a royal blue cloak and heavy gold chains, and has been seen throwing $100 bills and handing gold amulets to wounded soldiers. He says the royal look is his way of coping with PTSD. His promises included cash for the public and Netanyahu as his foreign minister. The result: roughly 1,300 to 1,500 votes. via OSINT613

Follow up: the battle for Jabal Sabr is not over. What is new: clashes are underway right now in Kahlan on Jabal Sabr in Taiz, the same village government forces said they had liberated earlier, according to footage shared from the area. via AB4_Ali3

🚨 Yemen's air defenses open fire. Yemeni air defense units are engaging an unidentified aerial target, according to footage shared from the area. No details yet on what the target was. via AB4_Ali3

🚨 Is Hezbollah firing again? The IDF says an interceptor was launched toward a suspected aerial target spotted in the airspace where its forces are operating in southern Lebanon. via OSINT613

🚨 Is Washington reopening a channel to Tehran? JD Vance is reportedly engaging one of Iran's most powerful hard liners in a bid to revive peace negotiations. But asked directly whether he sent Vance to talk to Iran and start peace talks, President Trump said no, explaining that Iran mainly needs help with medical supplies and that supplies are being brought in to help people who are not doing well. Trump also told reporters: "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks." via warsurv and AB4_Ali3