Tyler Rogers is the only MLB pitcher with an average release height under two feet. The focus of my off-season training has been lowering my own release point from roughly three feet to Rogers-range, but twelve years using the same slot has grooved an extremely deep attractor well. Early in the off-season, @Crider_HP programmed variable slot and implement work to destabilize my old angle and open up different solutions within my movement landscape. More recently, I’ve built familiarity with my desired slot by constraining start positions at/below the goal, adding rhythm to access the new angle dynamically, and then using variability/representative context to stabilize the pattern. My recent bullpen average? 1.8 feet. Good training, as they say.

Had a great mid-season meeting with the Phillies player development staff that made me reflect on how many low-future-value minor leaguers (such as myself) optimize for the wrong reward function. Most players naturally favor a slightly positive expected value approach with very little variance or downside risk, prioritizing the status quo of job security and health through slow, incremental gains. While this strategy lowers the chance of getting immediately demoted, released, or injured, it often reduces the likelihood of achieving the ultimate goal: reaching the majors. By definition, a low-FV prospect has a slim chance of making the show; a safe low-variance approach might prolong a minor league career but won’t meaningfully increase the odds of becoming a big leaguer. Many of these players would be better served by embracing a high-variance approach that carries greater risk but also greater upside. Drastic changes like altering pitch usage/arm slots or aggressive velocity/bat speed training can be uncomfortable and risky but may represent the only path with enough upside for a low-FV prospect to make the majors. Counterintuitively, high-variance approaches may even have negative EV, meaning they’re more likely to make a player worse than better. But if the true goal is to make the big leagues rather than merely survive in the minors, the bigger risk may be not taking one. Is it better to have a 90% chance of getting slightly better and staying healthy with a 0% shot at the majors? Or a 90% chance of getting worse or injured with a 5% chance of making the show?

In light of some prominent pitching injuries in the major leagues, I'd like to share my perspective as a minor league pitcher in my first season back after Tommy John surgery. 🧵:

One of the toughest aspects of being a relief pitcher is managing your throwing workloads without knowing ahead of time when you will pitch in-game. Below, I will lay out the framework I use for doing this in-season with PULSE. 🧵: