https://xitter.cf/t.co/fD42bQlt4z @cbbi_daily โAll paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value โ ZEROโ (Voltaire 1729) Fiat is the scam that enables all other scams.
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As a $BTC bear since Nov 17, 2025, I am willing to concede that there is now a good chance the bottom could be in.
I had been expecting the likeliest outcome as a break down from the $62.3k level and it broke up instead. I got that wrong. I am therefore being quick to adjust my opinion since new data has presented itself.
We have a valid bottoming pattern (inverse Head and Shoulders) that broke out with strength and volume. We are 10 months into the bear market, which is a long time. BTC is now above the 200-day MA and above the long-term downtrending diagonal line (see the dotted line).
That being said, I'm still cautious about the coming few months. I think we could chop sideways during that time as it is still early in the bottoming process. IMO, it's likely we will retrace some of the recent move we've seen ($62.7k -> $72.5k), in the coming weeks/months.
Sentiment is quite excited at the moment and I view that more as a local topping indicator (I think we're close to exhaustion of this move). Also, it's only been ~2 days so far from the breakout, so it's good to watch what price action does (to see the weekly candle confirmation, etc.)
But will $BTC make new cycle lows? That's the key question. I am now viewing it as *less likely*, although not impossible. I currently give 70% odds the bottom is in at $57.8k.
Additionally, I am not chasing the price after such a big move as we've seen from $62.7k to $72.5k, and considering how early we are in the bottoming process. We are not in the euphoric final stages of a bull run where the price can keep ripping. This is the first potential move out of a bear market. Early stages.
KEY LEVEL
$67k, the neckline of the iH&S, is the new key support. I do think it will retest this level, at a minimum, later this year. That may be where I buy in more. All my sells were considerably higher, so this remains a profitable strategy.
STRATEGY MODIFICATION
I'm no longer waiting for $51k to re-buy back in with the last remaining 35% of my cash (see this post where you can see how I already have been DCAing back in, over the past few months: xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/20โฆ)
The goal should never be to time the bottom perfectly as that's near-impossible. My goal is just to be generally early before the majority of the next bull run move occurs, and to be profitable with any sells I've made. Otherwise, my goal is just to hodl the majority of my BTC holdings.
HEATED DEBATE
I am aware this is a heated debate right now (whether the bottom is in or not), and I see some lashing out toxically when posts like this are made (most are non-verified members, interestingly, which is why I set this post to "only verified members can reply"). Thank you to the rest of you for being civil.
Markets are ever-evolving and one must be nimble and adjust, taking in new data. We all make forecasts, but no one can see the future. In the last few days we've had significant, new key data (the breakout of an iH&S with volume) and as such, I am quickly digesting this new data and making this updated opinion.
๐ณ๏ธ So, let it be stated that I pivoted from bearish to bullish on August 20, 2026. ๐ณ๏ธ
I considered naming this post "Humble Pie".
[References] This is when I pivoted from bullish to bearish last year, around Nov 17th: xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
$BTC broke out to $69.6k โ
It jumped up by $5k in an hour!
IS THE BOTTOM IN??
Thatโs the big question on everyoneโs mind.
BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k.
In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again?
Bulls will state that past behavior isnโt a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? Itโs possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary.
We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldnโt rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable.
However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so itโs not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though.
Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out.
The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already.
With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much.
My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it).
Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing?
Iโve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come.
One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k.
But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*.
The market does not like uncertainties
I personally think it's pretty dumb to underestimate the logarithmic potential of AI and what it could do to accelerate quantum development beyond what we expect.
Why take that kind of risk? Foolish imo. BTC devs are being irresponsible imo. Even if it's just a 10% chance of happening before we expect it, that's too high with trillions of dollars at stake.
I personally think it's pretty dumb to underestimate the logarithmic potential of AI and what it could do to accelerate quantum development beyond what we expect.
Why take that kind of risk? Foolish imo. BTC devs are being irresponsible imo. Even if it's just a 10% chance of happening before we expect it, that's too high with trillions of dollars at stake.
$BTC has lost momentum in the past 4 days, especially since the failed break above $84k.
It's clearly looking weak, and while it does seem likely that it drops lower, it is worth noting that it is still at the very lowest dregs of the boundary, within a margin of error.
For example, if some "White Swan Event" occured (something good but unexpected), like Trump suddenly ending the war with Iran, I could see BTC pumping and staying afloat. I am just mentioning possibilities. Good not to rule anything out. That's my bull case lol.
I think right now, we should be prepared for anything, and that includes more downside, as BTC has clearly been weak-- especially the past 4 days. BTC could easily go to $76k. That seems to be the most likely path, but again, I wouldn't rule out anything, especially right before midterm elections when politicians are desperate for votes.
$BTC reversal?
Look at the daily candle's lower wick. ๐ฎ Hammer candle.
Did the entire $BTC space just get massively faked out on a bigger drop down?
Second observation: There is a legitimate broadening wedge pattern forming (see pink dotted lines with 3 tags of the lower boundary). A break below the boundary would be uber bearish (BTC will likely head to $75k or lower). A break above would be bullish.
Btw, I still think we visit lower prices, but if BTC decides to pull a fake-out on this break down and it wants to head up instead, then maybe there's some steam left before BTC decides to find its higher low. That's fine with me.
I actually would like BTC to head higher first and then drop to its next higher low. That would maximize my gains. I am not biased in a downward direction as some of you may think. :)
The problem here is that this drop was not accompanied with any major volume. As such, I don't think the higher low is in.
Further elaborated on here:
xitter.cf/ColinTCrypto/status/21โฆ
On Oct 24, $BTC dropped to $79.2k, and while that was another sweep of the lows, it was NOT accompanied with high volume.
Imo, the true higher-low will be a capitulation event that is accompanied with HIGHER VOLUME. As such, I don't think the higher low is in yet.
My guess (it's a guess, people) in the SHORT TERM, is that we see a partial move up first, as depicted on this chart, before BTC proceeds to drop to its true higher-low in the weeks to come.
In the next days, if BTC breaks above $80.8k, it will likely make a move up to around $82k-$83k. That might be all we can squeeze out of the upside in the short term, before more downside is explored.
This is just how I'm looking at it currently.
So, for me:
๐น Short term could be bullish, pending a move above $80.8k. [This view is on the time frame of DAYS].
๐น After that, the medium term is bearish, where BTC hunts out its next low (a higher low). [This view is on the time frame of WEEKS]
๐น After that, the broader long-term trend is bullish, with the cycle bottom most likely be in. [This view is on the time frame of MONTHS]
On Oct 24, $BTC dropped to $79.2k, and while that was another sweep of the lows, it was NOT accompanied with high volume.
Imo, the true higher-low will be a capitulation event that is accompanied with HIGHER VOLUME. As such, I don't think the higher low is in yet.
My guess (it's a guess, people) in the SHORT TERM, is that we see a partial move up first, as depicted on this chart, before BTC proceeds to drop to its true higher-low in the weeks to come.
In the next days, if BTC breaks above $80.8k, it will likely make a move up to around $82k-$83k. That might be all we can squeeze out of the upside in the short term, before more downside is explored.
This is just how I'm looking at it currently.
So, for me:
๐น Short term could be bullish, pending a move above $80.8k. [This view is on the time frame of DAYS].
๐น After that, the medium term is bearish, where BTC hunts out its next low (a higher low). [This view is on the time frame of WEEKS]
๐น After that, the broader long-term trend is bullish, with the cycle bottom most likely be in. [This view is on the time frame of MONTHS]
Buying grade A alts during any sharp drops by BTC in the next month or two will likely yield great results in the years to come.
$BTC
What if?
Fake-out after the fake-out after the fake-out? ๐
This would really mess with people.
(It would need to reclaim and hold the lower level for it to have a chance of being a fake-out)
Is $BTC getting ready to make its first, major HIGHER LOW, since catapulting off the cycle bottom?
If it breaks down from $80k with a close of the daily candle, I'd say: yes it is quite likely.
In that case, the most likely downside targets are: $75k and, if that gets breached, $67k.
$BTC broke above the previous local high of $82.8K and made its first higher high.
As Iโve said since August 20 (even before the recent move above $82.8k), I think the bottom is likely in. The recent higher high *further* increases my confidence that the cycle low is in, up to an 85%.
BUT, what are the odds that BTC does *not* go below $82.8K ever again? That seems like pretty low odds to me.
That would be like saying the next higher LOW is going to somehow be above the previous higher HIGH. Extremely unlikely, imo.
Therefore, I do think we see a price somewhere between the cycle low of $57k and $80k again before the year is over. And the more likely range is $67k-$75k.
So for now, Iโm keeping my BTC buy limit order at $71.7k (with my final 25% remaining cash, as I already bought a lot around $62k) and I will watch what the market does. I will adjust that orderโs price up to a maximum of $75K, depending on how strong or weak BTC looks in the coming weeks.
Is there really anyone out there saying the next higher LOW is going to be ABOVE $82.8k and never visit below it again?
A higher low can be formed without making new lows. The low can still be in.
I will say something that will sound extremely obvious to some, and not so obvious to those still figuring out trading and investing:
Trading is quite distinct from investing. Trading is done level-to-level, while investing can involve fundamentals.
Both can use charts, so they overlap. Thatโs where confusion can enter.
I say this as someone who, over the years, had to resolve my own confusion. I saw traders and investors sharing info, and their forecasts didnโt always match.
It took me an embarrassingly long time to figure out the difference (because in the beginning I didn't know there was a difference, so I didn't even know to look for this). With the voluminous quantity of opinions and education on the Internet it's often unclear whether someone is bullish or bearish from a trading or investing standpoint. Also, the timeframe for forecasts is very often omitted. These factors were a source of great confusion for me in the past.
When listening to someoneโs opinion about a chart, first establish whether they are a trader or an investor, and what timeframe they are thinking with.
Itโs important to know how to sort it for yourself. I wish I had figured it out sooner.
End of sermon
$BTC Short term bullish
After sweeping the low and putting in a local bottom, the 50-DMA has held, and BTC has broken out of the diagonal trend. These are all bullish elements.
Next immediate resistance level is the zone at $84.2k
My guess is we eventually push through $84.2k (possibly getting rejected there first) and then a re-test of the range highs ($87k) in the coming week.
$BTC Preliminary breakout?
We want to see some follow-through to avoid a fake-out, with a close minimally above local highs of $84k, but BTC *appears* to be picking a direction, thus far. Looking good.
Bulls are in control right now. ๐
$BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown?
There are arguments for moves in either direction.
Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k.
However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k.
Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k.
The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up.
How I'm playing it:
I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.
๐ฒ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ข๐๐๐ retweeted
$BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown?
There are arguments for moves in either direction.
Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k.
However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k.
Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k.
The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up.
How I'm playing it:
I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.
$BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown?
There are arguments for moves in either direction.
Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k.
However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k.
Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k.
The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up.
How I'm playing it:
I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.
Also how I'm playing it:
I've actually got half of my remaining 10% cash sitting in a buy order around $78,720 with the idea that we will get a fake-out and then a rip higher.
I believe what may happen is a sharp fakeout to the downside and then a bigger move upwards.
If this order fills, it would put me at a 95% allocation and I would also be able to take profit on any sharp rebounds upward (as described in the post above).
Obviously, I am just guessing what will happen. It's easy to be wrong with a guess. I am not recommending anyone follow this as it could easily be wrong. But it's how I'm positioned.
Itโs going to be difficult to be an Elon hater when heโs doing cool stuff like this.
To the haters: like, are you lame or are you lame?
xitter.cf/sawyermerritt/status/2โฆ