We're only about a week away from the full operational debut of the RRFS and REFS models and the retirement of the NAM, HRW, SREF, and HREF models. Currently working on a video that will discuss what's changing, why NOAA is making these changes, the timeline behind how we got here, and some nuances of the RRFS/REFS that might be useful when forecasting in the future. Stay tuned.

Keeping an eye on early next week for our next shot at more widespread severe weather across the central United States. Around next Monday (Nov. 2), ensemble models hint at a notable trough making its way into the region, coincident with seasonally robust moisture return into the central/southern Plains and Midwest. Significant uncertainty remains, and specific details are unclear at this time frame, but it's worth monitoring in the coming days.

LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=iibcZI-Z… In-depth meteorological breakdown of the intense EF3 tornado that impacted St. Libory, NE, on May 17, 2026. We'll take a deep dive into the complex background pattern behind this event, including how the cold front surging in from the west impacted the supercell and tornadogenesis. We'll also look at some unique storm behaviors and characteristics using radar data, including some from the Doppler on Wheels mobile radar.

St. Libory breakdown to be released tomorrow. Stay tuned!

The severe weather threat continues across New Mexico and far west Texas today, where SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5). Our closed low that has induced severe weather in the Desert Southwest the past few days has devolved into an expansive open wave, but adequate moisture remains across the region. This will foster another round of strong to severe storms this afternoon, some of which may be supercells. The main threats will be large to very large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado or two will also be possible.

The severe weather threat persists today across New Mexico and extreme west Texas, where SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5). Our robust upper trough continues to meander east, now as an open wave. Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon; fairly high temperature-dewpoint spreads should keep the tornado threat low aside from favored terrain areas, but damaging winds and large to very hail will be the main threats with the most intense storms.

Another day of severe weather is on tap for the Desert Southwest, particularly central/eastern Arizona into far western New Mexico, where SPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5). Our robust closed low will continue slowly eastward while evolving into an open wave, coupled with seasonally high moisture. Strong to severe storms continue this morning across northern Arizona, and an additional round of severe storms, including supercells, is expected this afternoon over eastern Arizona and vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes are possible from the more robust supercells.

10:10am MST - The coverage of supercells is beginning to increase across central/northern Arizona; as such, SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for the areas shaded in red, valid until 6pm MST this evening. The threat for supercells with all hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, continues.

9:12am MST - A supercell with strong low-level rotation is about to enter Flagstaff, AZ. A tornado may be imminent. Folks in Flagstaff should seek shelter immediately! #azwx

LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=Mzod87Q-… Forecast discussion on the rare, multi-day severe threat taking aim at the Desert Southwest, particularly Arizona, today and tomorrow. Several rounds of severe storms, including supercells, are expected through tomorrow, posing a risk for damaging winds, very large hail over 2" in diameter, and a few tornadoes.

SPC has upgraded to a Day 2 Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across parts of central/northern Arizona for tomorrow (Wed, Oct 21). Confidence is increasing for supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large to very large hail tomorrow afternoon. The parameter space is certainly upper echelon for the region, and this is the first time ever that the SPC has issued a Day 2 Enhanced Risk in this area.

Super Typhoon Champi is an absolute buzzsaw this afternoon in the western Pacific, packing winds of 180 mph (gusts over 200 mph) and a central pressure down to near 900 mb. Incredible storm.

A rare SPC Day 2 Slight Risk (level 2/5) has been outlined for parts of central/eastern Arizona for tomorrow (Wed, Oct 21). A well-defined, closed upper low will slowly make its way inland from the Pacific, interacting with seasonally robust low-level moisture across the region. This is a fairly classic setup for severe weather in the Desert Southwest. Instability is often the discriminator between higher-end and less impactful Southwest severe events in the cool season, and ensemble short-range models show pockets of over 1000 J/kg over Arizona Wednesday afternoon, which is on the higher side for cool season events out there. Supercells are expected, posing a risk for all hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. The severe threat looks to linger into Thursday, as well. A low-end risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are also possible along the southern California coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Some eye candy this morning as Super Typhoon Champi churns out in the Western Pacific. Once it completed an eyewall replacement cycle after its close pass to Guam, Champi reintensified into a monster, Category 5-equivalent storm, currently packing winds of over 160 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb.

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Incredibly dynamic, formerly tornado-warned supercell near Fort Morgan, CO, on June 14, 2025.