Swing Trader. Market Cycles. I don't give financial advice. All I share on X is educational content.
Joined May 2020
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Update: $NDX
The 4th daily cycle of the weekly cycle played out as expected: left-translation and failure into the WCL timing window.
We're now in Week 31, so I expect the WCL to form in the coming days.
From there, I'll be watching the bounce closely. It should tell us whether there's still enough fuel in the tank for a blowoff top or we're heading lower into the 4YCL.
Update: $NDX
Nasdaq has failed its daily cycle. The weekly cycle is now in its declining phase, and we should see a WCL in the coming weeks, although I expect it to form a little later than the timing marked on my chart.
The bounce out of that WCL will tell us whether the market has enough strength to keep moving higher.
However, we're so late in the 4 year cycle that my base case is that the top is already in and we'll continue moving lower into the 4YCL.
That doesn't mean I won't go long at the next WCL. I'll trade the setup if the conditions are there, regardless of my broader bearish outlook (react, don't predict).
When Heraclitus said, 2,500 years ago, that nobody steps into the same river twice, what he meant was that every daily or weekly cycle looks like the last one, but no two are ever exact copies.
That's why you give each low a window of a few days or weeks instead of guessing the exact date.
Update: $SOL
We are close to a DCL.
Think of opening a trade like going to a party.
Arriving too early means standing around with a warm drink while the host is still vacuuming.
Stay too late, and the lights come on. You finally see who you've been dancing with all night.
Get there when the music starts, and leave when the DJ plays the first slow song.
Update: $COPPER
The short played out as expected.
Nice example of how bearish divergences, combined with trendline breaks, can help identify high R/R setups.
Down and to the right.
Update: $COPPER
Massive bearish divergence, failure to reclaim the ascending trendline for several days, and a confirmed DCL on 1/COPPER.
I'm short.
Update: $BTC
On track, moving as expected.
Update: $BTC
The failed daily cycle continues to show weakness, as expected.
Here's an alternative to the two scenarios I outlined in my previous post: a DCL in December, followed by a final capitulation wick and a daily cycle inversion marking the 4YCL.
Time will tell.
Not looking good.
Structure needs to hold, otherwise it will qualify as an early weekly cycle low failure.
Update: $SMH
Nice ride. I’m closing half of my short here and will take profits on the remaining at the 3D breaker block.
Update: $NDX
Let's sweep!
Update: $NDX
Nasdaq has failed its daily cycle. The weekly cycle is now in its declining phase, and we should see a WCL in the coming weeks, although I expect it to form a little later than the timing marked on my chart.
The bounce out of that WCL will tell us whether the market has enough strength to keep moving higher.
However, we're so late in the 4 year cycle that my base case is that the top is already in and we'll continue moving lower into the 4YCL.
That doesn't mean I won't go long at the next WCL. I'll trade the setup if the conditions are there, regardless of my broader bearish outlook (react, don't predict).
Update: $GOLD
The DCL is in on Day 17, balancing out the unusually long 37-day previous daily cycle.
I'm long, although I still expect this new cycle to be left translated and eventually fail into the 4YCL.
I'm taking this trade because both Gold and Silver swept their previous lows, which alone tends to be followed by a decent upswing
Update: $GOLD
I think we're due for a bounce here. A DCL appears to be taking shape.
However, I expect the new daily cycle to be left-translated and eventually fail, setting up the final plunge into the 4YCL.
I think of edge as a product:
setup quality × holding winners × cutting losses
A product goes to zero when any one factor is zero, so a great setup can't save a trader who never holds a winner, and holding winners can't save one who won't cut a loss.
Score yourself from 0 to 10 on each of the three for your last month of trades, and put next month's work into the lowest one.
Update: $ETH
Bullish reaction as expected from the 1 month breaker block.
Now we wait and see what the market gives us: higher high or lower high.
Close above 2,800 and we can declare the 4YCL to be in.
$ETH
ETH has a much cleaner chart than BTC from a liquidity perspective.
It's about to test a bullish monthly breaker block. These are powerful levels, so I'd expect a strong reaction. I'm definitely looking to go long in this area.
From there, if price bounces strongly, makes a HH, and closes above $2,800, we can confidently say the 4YCL is in.
If we only get a bounce followed by a resumption of the downtrend, the bottom is not yet in (this is my base case as BTC has just failed its daily cycle).
Update: $GOLD
I think we're due for a bounce here. A DCL appears to be taking shape.
However, I expect the new daily cycle to be left-translated and eventually fail, setting up the final plunge into the 4YCL.
BREAKING: Futures fall as the 4th daily cycle of the weekly cycle plays out on schedule.
Early election results already taking the credit.
A farmer who sows in the right window can still lose the crop to a late frost. That doesn't make the sowing a mistake, and he'll sow in the same window next year, because over many seasons that window brings in the most harvests.
Nobody can forecast what the market does after you enter, so the work happens earlier: knowing when the cycle low is due and having the entry ready when the window opens.
If a trade inside the window gets stopped out, keep the process and get ready for the next cycle low.
Update: $KAS
Time has ruled out two of the three scenarios I outlined.
Now just waiting for the next WCL to form.
Update: kaspa:native
Everyone is trying to find explanations for the massive pump. We looked at cycles instead. They told us the probability of a move like this was high, and we acted accordingly buying spot.
Now, three scenarios are on the table:
The next DCL forms a significant higher low.
We get a higher low after a deeper pullback.
New lows before the YCL.
Time will tell. We’ll look to go long and add more spot on confirmations.
