
Providing tailored, timely analysis of CBW threats from state and non-state actors. RT ≠ endorsement. Crossbow Analytics LLC -- [email protected]
Phoenix, AZ
Joined November 2019
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Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Contingency plans for the day after an AI-assisted or AI-initiated biological warning shot.
Colman-Lerner's and my "Break-Glass" paper is up.
preprints.org/manuscript/202…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#BiologicalWeapons #Epidemic #Preparedness #Cooperation #Plague
Pneumonic plague in Russia exposes a world still dangerously divided
thehill.com/homenews/6148864…
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Without appropriate biosafety controls, hazardous research risks exposing lab workers and causing leaks that could trigger major outbreaks. Currently, there are no international systems aimed at regulating or inspecting facilities that undertake gain-of-function research, establishing mandatory biosafety standards for labs or monitoring AI capabilities that could enhance and weaponize existing pathogens or create new ones. The need for better global biosafety and biosecurity rules is clear.
The state of biosecurity worldwide has always been fragile. Unlike its counterpart, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Biological Weapons Convention is brief, weak and lacks a robust system of verification and enforcement. It is likely that 50 or more governments actively support dual-use research allowed under the treaty that could be adapted for prohibited purposes.
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Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
WHO statement
who.int/emergencies/disease-…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
I am SO glad to see this article by the brilliant Drs @FuturistYB @FilippaLentzos on the book many have been discussing. Fact vs fiction is critical when discussing biothreats, and with the news focused on Russia right now, we need experts underscoring what we know and don’t know, rather than fantastical stories that aim to hype fear and sell copies. (1/2)
Replying to @FilippaLentzos
@FilippaLentzos and I just published a @BulletinAtomic (thanks, @MatthewField2!) article about @AnnieJacobsen’s recent book: “Biological War: a Scenario”.
You can read the article here:
thebulletin.org/2026/10/anni…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
The statement from WHO refers to the alleged 2nd #pneumonia case as an "employee" - presumably of the anti-plague research lab.
Some reports state that a 2nd person has died of the #plague in #Russia's #Irkutsk region. The 1st case was reported in female lab worker who died after reportedly being exposed to the #pneumonic #plague at a research institute in #Siberia.
dailymail.com/news/article-1…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#BiologicalWeapons #Plague #Russia #GainOfFunction
This is an important element in the #Irkutsk plague outbreak.
Quote: "Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute’s own research summary appears to describe deliberate virulence enhancement by serial passage."
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Rainbow Warrior review – spies bomb activists in truly gasp-inducing TV
theguardian.com/tv-and-radio…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
National Police of Ukraine: Since the beginning of 2026, law enforcement agencies have registered 11 cases of poisoning of military personnel, in which they are investigating or have already established a connection with Russian recruitment.
mvs.gov.ua/news/ponad-30-ter…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#BioSecurity #GeneticEngineering #SyntheticBiology #ArtificialIntelligence
This A.I. Just Created Viruses Not Found in Nature
nytimes.com/2026/08/06/scien…
For the first time, scientists have used artificial intelligence to create new kinds of viruses, raising hopes for medical advances while also raising the disturbing possibility that the technology could someday be used to invent dangerous pathogens.
Synthesizing viruses from scratch is hardly new. Researchers long ago learned how to manufacture viral genomes; they are used to investigate antiviral drugs and vaccines, as well as to learn how viruses work.
But the new study, published Thursday in the journal Science, goes well beyond duplicating viral genes. Scientists at Stanford University and the Arc Institute, a research organization in Palo Alto, Calif., taught A.I. to recognize patterns of DNA structure in nature, and then to use that data to write recipes for entirely new viruses.
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Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#BiologicalWeapons #Threat #Epidemic
No One Makes Good Policy Based on Worst Case Scenarios
almauroni.substack.com/p/no-…
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Let’s look closer at her op-ed, which focuses on efforts to prepare the United States from a biological attack. One of the most significant problems with the article (and her book) is that she does not differentiate between a biological weapon and a pandemic event. It doesn’t seem to matter to her. “The release, deliberate or accidental, of [a genetically modified] pathogen could trigger a global pandemic, mass death, widespread insurrection and ultimately societal breakdown.” The source does in fact matter if you want to prevent this event. More to the point, it’s far more probable that the United States will have to face the challenge of an endemic natural disease outbreak than a biological weapon incident or a genetically modified pathogen from a lab accident. It’s a mistake to deliberately take what’s possible and conflate that with acts that are plausible and suggest this will become a catastrophic event. Yet this is what people do when they use the term “biological threat.”
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Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Great article, @Wiswesser! You are right. There are essentially no rules now. Anything goes - sabotage, assassinations, etc. The “secret world” has become chaotic and very dangerous.
My educated guess is that what we are seeing publicly is just a tip of the iceberg. The resources and staff of #counterintelligence agencies in the West need to be expanded.
Few people know Russian spies better than Sean Wiswesser, a former CIA station chief who spent much of his career working in the ex-Soviet Union.
But he says we are ‘wilfully unprepared’ for Moscow’s hybrid war of sabotage and assassinations ⤵️
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
"A 17-year-old girl suspected of involvement in the death of a Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier has been detained in the Zhytomyr region. According to investigators, she may have acted on behalf of Russian intelligence services to poison the man"
ua.news/en/ukraine/u-zhitomi…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
So all those Russian disinformation campaigns denying that Syria used chemical weapons, even paying popular western influencers to help, it was all lies.
Again and again. Russia lies like rivers run.
#Syria: the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) found 54 aerial bombs used to disperse chemical agents.
They are of a similar model to those used in Lataminah attack in 2017.
25 rockets like those used in the E. Ghouta sarin attack in 2013 were also found.
Munitions, equipment and chemical stockpiles were transferred to special facilities in preparation for their destruction.
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#BiologicalWeapons #Investigation #UNSGM
Report of a Workshop on Preparing for Biological Weapons Investigations in Non-Permissive Environments
stimson.org/2026/report-of-a…
The Stimson Center’s Mission Ready project, funded by the U.S. Department of State, aims to identify and recommend measures to address specific training and capability gaps facing the UN Secretary General’s Mechanism (UNSGM) in preparing for investigations of alleged use of biological weapons (BW) in non-permissive environments (NPE). The Stimson project team convened a workshop in December 2025, bringing together negotiators, planners, and practitioners with direct experience in missions deployed to NPEs to examine how such environments might shape future UNSGM investigations of alleged BW attacks. This report synthesizes the workshop’s principal insights and recommendations for strengthening UNSGM preparedness, effectiveness, and resilience in carrying out investigations in NPEs.
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
#Poisoning #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar
Russian soldiers in Zaporizhzhya Oblast die en masse from poisoned alcohol
english.nv.ua/nation/mass-de…
In an intercepted conversation, two Russian soldiers discussed an observation post where many of their comrades, referred to as “200s” (killed in action), died from “blue” — a reference to toxic alcohol. One soldier recalled “a lot, a lot of 200s” at the site, while the other confirmed that eight to 10 bodies lay there, covered with sleeping bags but not evacuated for at least five or six days.
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Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Scientist says AI chatbot told him how to make biological weapons. Via @CNN
cnn.com/2026/04/30/science/v…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Poisoned baby food was part of attempted extortion, German producer says
reuters.com/world/poisoned-b…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Interview with Petro Andryushchenko regarding Ukrainian resistance (including use of poisoning) against the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine
youtube.com/watch?v=nLERq02o…
Crossbow Analytics LLC retweeted
Replying to @SynBio1
I agree with you critique of the article. However the key issue with AI is that it can make you „good enough“ in stages of your attack. You can forsure come up with a pathogen but weaponization and dissemination? Clandestine sourcing and work? Attack planning and logistics?
Excellent article by Naomi Rio on recent cases alongside historical records of CBW state-sponsored assassinations. Examines motivations driving states to resort to CBW in such operations and why these methods increasingly appeal to states. warontherocks.com/silent-kil…
























