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Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Interesting opportunities outside USA:
While I believe the United States is still the best place to allocate capital there are other markets that look attractive for allocation outside of the United States.
The graph below highlights the Marginal Product of Capital (MPK) this is the additional output (e.g., GDP) produced by using one more unit of capital (machinery, plants, equipment), holding everything else constant.
Fixed capital is the long-term, durable parts of capital - infrastructure, factories, and technology.
SO, the Marginal Product of Fixed Capital is the extra output produced when you increased fixed capital by one unit.
Mathematically:
MPK= δ Output/δ Fixed Capital
Below the frontier line would represent the most efficient use of capital - the production possibility frontier (PPF) or efficiency frontier for capital.
If a country’s MPK is on the frontier line it means it’s using capital very efficiently. Any increase in capital yields the maximum possible output relative to other countries or economic conditions. There’s no waste or underutilization of capital. If a country has an MPK on the frontier investors could expect their money to yield better.
You are also going to see efficient use of resources, which would suggest good institutions, infrastructure, and policies. Lower risk of inefficiency, capital won’t sit idle or be mismanaged.
Based on the frontier Poland, Mexico, and New Zealand remain relatively attractive.
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Folks dont understand what is happening with Bitcoin during this risk-asset panic. BTC with 2.5x the volatility of the S&P500 experienced a drawdown of 28% vs. the SPX 19%. That is a massive OUTPERFORMANCE.
When I ran a similar analysis in 2023, I demonstrated that each bear market Bitcoin has been outperforming on a risk-adjusted basis.
nitter.gq/Jamie1Coutts/status/17…
Perhaps it's not just BTC's strength, but a reflection of the increasing fragility of the fiat system and its asset markets – complex systems inherently trend toward entropy/chaos. Bitcoin is mirroring this unraveling.
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
There’s a lot of noise in the market right now – conflicting narratives everywhere.
But here’s the reality – or at least my take on what’s really going on:
Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 last year.
When financial conditions tighten, liquidity gets drained, and economic surprises start to slow. I mentioned this before, including in a tweet I posted yesterday.
That’s why we’re seeing a soft patch in the economic data and why the market is freaking out about a growth scare, with recession talk now making a comeback.
Here’s the thing:
This will all reverse next month.
Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months – dollar down, bond yields down, oil down – and that’s setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon. Remember, financial conditions are always leading.
One final point:
With the drop to $80k, this tightening is now fully reflected in the price of Bitcoin.
Could we go a little lower? Sure…
But here’s what I’d say:
Everyone’s already on the same side of the trade – sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin is sitting at an RSI of 23, the most oversold level since August 2023.
So if you’re still bearish, don’t get too comfortable…
Instead, be greedy when others are fearful.
Just my two cents. Hope it’s helpful to some.
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Almost didn't watch this, because of its length, but after hearing about it 3 times in one day, I made the effort. I was not disappointed
This is the first video about Bitcoin I've seen that I am comfortable to share with anyone who has not yet adopted Bitcoin. Masterful
Introducing: “What’s The Problem?”
Let’s help *everyone* get to the starting line.
Accessible to all, the story of Fiatello and the Big Red Button is something we can all send *before* the first Bitcoin book / podcast / video.
Please share it with everyone you care about (link below).
Thank you Bitcoin 🧡
@satmojoe
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
If you have fiduciary oversight of a pension fund, and you are not considering Bitcoin, you are failing your fiduciary duty to get people the best possible returns, and protect them from risk
Numerous models show 2-4% exposure gives a better expected return + lower risk spread
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
DSG is honoured to have won the @BlockchainNZ award for 2024 Most Innovative Solution. Our blockchain powered securities platform is going to be the foundation of so many awesome products and services, bring on 2025 🚀
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
BTC Markets’ @carobowler stated, "Crypto is not a dirty word. Policymakers must be open to the opportunities of cryptocurrencies, which are reshaping finance. Australia risks missing out if it dismisses this evolution."
ow.ly/mM6C50U9Ezw
#Crypto #DigitalAssets #Bitcoin
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Bitcoin loves hydropower
Ethiopia uses 98% renewable energy and now represents 2.25% of global hashrate
Bitcoin mining has also contributed $55M to the economy of Ethiopia - much of it surplus energy that would have flowed over the top of the dam
mariblock.com/ethiopia-earns…
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
OK, so here's what you can do to help. When it comes to educating the general public about the ESG value of Bitcoin mining, films, art, charts, other plebs are doing a great job.
But that's not enough for institutional investors. They have very specific ESG questions they need answers to, and they need to feel they are speaking to someone who sees the world through the same impact investment lens they do. They can tell the difference between someone who was a Bitcoiner first then learnt that Bitcoin was good for the environment, versus someone who was an impact investor and Bitcoin skeptic first who learnt through firsthand research that Bitcoin was environmentally net positive.
The latter is the category I'm in, and it's probably for that reason to date when I've been able to get in front of fund managers with ESG concerns, they tend not to have not only not have those concerns by the end of our conversation, but they've generally flipped to seeing Bitcoin is the most ESG-friendly investment they could have.
It doesn't take months. It doesn't "open them up to finding out more". They change their minds in a single conversation or presentation.
The problem is, I only know so many fund managers and SWF advisors. So I need your help so that we can accelerate this process. Right now, it is very risky for these Sovereign Funds to NOT invest in Bitcoin.
Apart from also doing this with NGOs and mitigating Landfill gas with Bitcoin mining, I cannot think of anything more impactful that I could be doing in Bitcoin at this time which is a better use of my time.
Let's do this!
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Current price action is reflecting the discount Bitcoin has been trading at for 3 years due to regulatory hostility towards BTC and Bitcoin mining
My best guess is its a ~40% discount (so 100K target). To push far beyond 100K will require significant institutional fund adoption
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
That's wrap
If you found this thread helpful:
1. Follow me @arnill_dev more such content.
2. RT the tweet below to share with your audience.
nitter.gq/arnill_dev/status/1843…
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
That's a wrap!
I created this account to help you level up:
• In marketing
• In personal branding
• In online business
If you enjoyed this thread:
1. Follow me for more
2. Share the post below
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
8 hours ago, the odds of a 50 bps cut at Sep 18's FOMC meeting were just 14%. Now, they're ~50/50 (46%).
This is happening as stocks have rallied big in the last 2 days, and futures are quiet overnight.
In other words, stocks are not exhibiting signs of stress.
What changed?
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
World's 4th largest power company says Bitcoin can solve its wasted renewable problem
Probably nothing
cryptopotato.com/worlds-4th-…
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
0/8
Most of the peer review papers focus on how Texas has used Bitcoin mining to accelerate renewable energy development
However, I've uncovered evidence of at least 8 nation states using Bitcoin mining to accelerate their own renewable energy projects
Here's a deep dive
👇
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Why are markets crashing?
🇯🇵 Japan's stock market suffers its worst loss since 1987, reversing the 0% interest carry trade, prompting a mass sell-off of assets. Additionally, Japan is deploying more US troops and increasing defense construction to defend Taiwan as a US proxy.
🇨🇳 China is testing free markets by allowing banks to fail with less intervention, aiming for market corrections instead of intervention. They're supporting Iran & Russia's oil industries despite sanctions & are testing Taiwan reunification as the US tries to block Taiwan from sending semiconductor microchips to China, escalating the trade war. This could be a covert economic strategy by China to test the US banking system, possibly leading to a US credit crisis.
🇺🇸 The USA didn't reduce rates last week, and unemployment was worse than expected. An emergency rate cut may be in the works, but its effectiveness could be short-lived. The US is escalating tensions by sending advanced weapons to Ukraine and deploying missiles in Germany, violating agreements and reviving Cold War dynamics.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran is likely to retaliate against Israel more severely than the April attacks on four fronts: Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. Potential targets include critical infrastructure, impacting global cybersecurity firms as seen with CrowdStrike.
What I’m looking for:
- Will China allow markets to correct?
- Will the US implement an emergency intervention?
- Will #Bitcoin follow commodity trends and its four-year cycle alongside rising Gold & Oil prices?
- Will Saudi Arabia side with Russia & Iran, weakening the US with higher oil prices?
- Will the Abraham Alliance (Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt & Bahrain etc) defend Israel from Iran?
- How will #Bitcoin ETF investors manage their risks during a large correction?
- Will crypto decouple from #Bitcoin and follow the stock market?
I’ll keep you updated every step of the way.
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Nobody knows what the ultimate price of #Bitcoin will be but simple maths can give us an upper bound. All wealth assets is $500T, if BTC captured all of this (never gonna happen) it's $24m per coin (today's value before future inflation adjustment).
The question is what will be the realistic allocation for everyone?
Wealth management is very predictable, and money flows in a conservative manner according to known wisdom.
BTC, even in this early phase of an asset class, Fidelity recommends 1-3% allocation, while we have seen numbers as high as 85% from BlackRock.
If we assume 3% as a sensible allocation (and I note that was the number we used to share back in 2014!) then the lower bound of valuation is $700k
Price target range:
$700k lower bound
$24m maximum bound
(In today's inflation adjusted numbers.)
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Crypto and trad fi are evolving, learning from one another. We're seeing signs of an eventual convergence. Thanks to @InvestorDailyAU for this great conversation on behalf of @Binance_AUS @Binance_NZL @binance investordaily.com.au/markets…
Mysdefi.eth | trac.btc 🇭🇲 🇳🇿 retweeted
Join @BryanVenturaNZ and me for a panel discussion with leaders in the growth of on-chain securities in APAC. Guests include @UrszulaMc (KWM), Leo Chen (Tokeny), @will_reth (Scio), @simonocollins (Stackr), & @hbarLATAM (Tokn1). Q&A at the end! nitter.gq/i/spaces/1mnGepvgdnQKX
