Big fan and investor of crypto and blockchain. My tweets are my personal opinions and not financial advice.
Gotham
Joined October 2017
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The US mid-term election is just around the corner.
And historical correlation tells us that it's never nice for $BTC.
The mid-term election comes in once every 4 years, in November.
And in 2014, 2018, and 2022 we have been seeing that the mid-term are never nice for Bitcoin.
Now, we're just weeks away from the next election.
Watch out, we're going to see a lot of capital rotate out from risky assets.
Don't forget about the leading side of CPI.
That is, the PPI.
The CPI is inflation for consumer, whereas the PPI is for producers.
And they are the first on the line to take the hit when global prices rise, making them a leading indicator.
Last week, the MoM PPI came in at 1,3%.
This is higher than the previous month, consensus, and forecasts at 0,5%.
In fact, this is the biggest monthly increase since 2022.
And remember what we saw back in 2022?
High inflation, rate hiking cycle, and a $BTC bear market.
This just gives more reason for The Fed to do a rate hike.
US CPI has increased from previous month.
Inflation Rate YoY: 3.7% vs 3.4%, above the 3.6% consensus.
Core Inflation YoY: 2.6% vs 2.4%, above the 2.5% consensus.
It's important to note that both came in above consensus, which means inflation is still higher than the market expected.
Higher inflation gives the Fed less reason to cut rates. Less rate cuts means tighter liquidity, and risky assets like $BTC are going to feel the pressure.
Watch out.
Update on Papertrade’s revenue.
From $25M on day one, it’s now down to $199,920 today.
The initial hype drove massive volume, but the revenue has dropped significantly since launch.
It looks like it wasn’t sustainable.
Papertrade has to step up their game here.
There’s a lot of noise around Papertrade recently.
A lot of speculations going around too.
Some call it a Ponzi, others think it’s the next big thing.
However, the data tells us differently.
3 days in, it’s generating $3.89 million in daily revenue, ranking #3 across all of DeFi, surpassing Hyperliquid.
What do you guys think?
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Here’s a brutal reality check for retail traders.
The data from $HYPE shows that across 400K retail traders, cumulative losses hit $280 million.
What’s even more interesting, more money was lost to app fees than to actual trading losses.
The retention numbers tell the full story. By month 1, only 39% of new traders are still active. By month 6, just 9%.
Most retail comes in, pays the fees, gets wiped, and leaves.
This is a reminder that trading carries real risk, and the reality is not many people actually profit from it.
