building https://nitter.gq/t.co/Fp7EZNrYWw · we read the documents that settle prediction markets before the crowd does · AI agents, crypto, shipping with AI
Canada
Joined April 2021
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Over half of the Canadian realtors we have a verified email for are in Ontario. 43,662 out of 80,958. BC is a distant second at 11,674, then Quebec at 9,600. All of PEI is 335. Counts are from AgentRoster, which I run, as of today.
a brokerage now earns more from event contracts than from equities. the product was never "betting", it's a cleaner interface to risk with an honest price attached.
the infrastructure era of prediction markets started quietly and this is the receipt.
nitter.gq/StockMKTNewz/status/20…
Robinhood $HOOD now makes more money from trading Prediction Markets on its platform than it does from people trading stocks
my agent caught thursday's claims number at 12:30:00 on the dot, graded it against settlement, and sealed it on-chain that night. i was the weak link, i never hit post.
turns out that's the whole point of the design. the evidence doesn't need me.
nitter.gq/ResolutionWire/status/…
jolts just printed 7,271k. three hours before the release, the winning bucket (7.2-7.3M) was trading at 5¢ on polymarket while the crowd favorite "below 7.1M" sat at 24¢.
the 5¢ bucket paid ~20x. econ ladders remain the most mispriced corner of these venues
the most useful thing i've done for agent reliability: make it show the exact sentence from the source document that justifies its call. no quote, no call. hallucinations dropped to basically zero and every failure became debuggable in seconds
the court ruling everyone's doomposting about forces a question the industry has dodged: a 5-minute BTC coinflip is gambling, a jobless-claims hedge is a financial instrument. venues that bundle both under one roof are building the case against themselves
nitter.gq/CNN/status/20934073841…
A federal appeals court has ruled that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling, dealing a major blow to the booming industry. cnn.it/4y6zjwW
unpopular: 90% of polymarket PnL threads are survivorship porn. for every "he turned $45 into $77k" there are a thousand blown accounts you'll never see a thread about. the only stat that matters is graded accuracy over every call, and almost nobody publishes theirs
the poly token speculation is fun but the real story is boring infrastructure: US-regulated volume went 60m to 870m weekly in six months. prediction markets stopped being a crypto toy and became a rates product with better UX
my agent started posting on its own account. i'm not editing what it says.
thursday should be interesting
nitter.gq/ResolutionWire/status/…
every polymarket question settles on a document. a BLS print, a court filing, an EDGAR page.
the edge isn't predicting the future, it's reading the answer before the crowd reacts.
built resolutionwire.com to read them first. calls timestamped, graded, wrong ones stay public.
just hit 100/100 on Google PageSpeed on mobile
not a blank page. a full production site with:
— live API calls to Google's PageSpeed API
— Stripe checkout with file uploads & drag/drop
— interactive revenue calculator
— canvas animations
— scroll reveals
— WhatsApp widget
— marquee ticker
— Netlify serverless functions
— automated emails via Resend
Google's own homepage scores 55
secret: @astro + self-hosted fonts
base7studio.com
Just checked the @futuredotfun leaderboard… the top Polymarket traders are putting hedge funds to shame.
$230K P&L
96% win rate
Sharpe ratio 22+ (Wall St. dreams of 3–4)
Tier: Oracle 🧙♂️
Prediction markets aren’t gambling anymore, they’re an asset class.
$AION 👀
future.fun is here
We’re live. The site is up, and the first feature is out: The Scouter.
Scouter is the base layer of everything to come. Think of it as Level 1 of your prediction markets adventure.
With Scouter, it’s basically impossible not to be profitable in prediction markets. We track hundreds of wallets daily on Polymarket (Kalshi soon), breaking down profits, risk, and behavior like an institutional trading desk.
At its core sits the Edge Score™ (0–100), a proprietary system weighted across 5 categories:
- Profitability (25%): returns vs. risk (Sharpe ratio)
- Risk Management (20%): drawdowns & volatility
- Consistency (20%): win rate, expectancy, profit factor
- Scale & Impact (25%): profits + % returns
- Experience (10%): track record length & stability
Edge Score™ doesn’t just look at absolute USDC values. It also considers percentage relative to the user’s balance at the time. That means if you lost $10k, we know whether that was ~50% of your $20k stack or just 5% of a $200k whale. Same logic applies to all variables: profits, expectancy, max gain, max loss, volatility... so the score reflects real skill, not just size.
Traders are auto-ranked into tiers:
Oracle → Prophet → Sage → Visionary → Predictor → Grinder → Gambler.
These tiers will be heavily gamified in the future.
Scouter is step one, not the full product.
Next up, future.fun will make prediction markets FUN, competitive, and downright ADDICTIVE.
Welcome to the fun side of prediction markets...
$AION 👀
Cybz 🟦 retweeted
future.fun is here
We’re live. The site is up, and the first feature is out: The Scouter.
Scouter is the base layer of everything to come. Think of it as Level 1 of your prediction markets adventure.
With Scouter, it’s basically impossible not to be profitable in prediction markets. We track hundreds of wallets daily on Polymarket (Kalshi soon), breaking down profits, risk, and behavior like an institutional trading desk.
At its core sits the Edge Score™ (0–100), a proprietary system weighted across 5 categories:
- Profitability (25%): returns vs. risk (Sharpe ratio)
- Risk Management (20%): drawdowns & volatility
- Consistency (20%): win rate, expectancy, profit factor
- Scale & Impact (25%): profits + % returns
- Experience (10%): track record length & stability
Edge Score™ doesn’t just look at absolute USDC values. It also considers percentage relative to the user’s balance at the time. That means if you lost $10k, we know whether that was ~50% of your $20k stack or just 5% of a $200k whale. Same logic applies to all variables: profits, expectancy, max gain, max loss, volatility... so the score reflects real skill, not just size.
Traders are auto-ranked into tiers:
Oracle → Prophet → Sage → Visionary → Predictor → Grinder → Gambler.
These tiers will be heavily gamified in the future.
Scouter is step one, not the full product.
Next up, future.fun will make prediction markets FUN, competitive, and downright ADDICTIVE.
Welcome to the fun side of prediction markets...
$AION 👀
Cybz 🟦 retweeted
Note: there's not one prominent Leftist anywhere in the West doing what Charlie Kirk did, i.e. issuing an open debate challenge to all comers and saying "Here's my view, I invite you to try and prove me wrong". None of them are willing to subject their views to that scrutiny.
Cybz 🟦 retweeted
Fresh face, new website, bigger vision.
New primitives coming to Prediction Markets and the Real World.
Two brands entering the arena.
The future is FUN.
aion5100.ai
