$BTC Big week(s). Either Bitcoin holds $80K throughout these next 1-2 weeks with: FOMC, Earnings, Election(s), IPO filing(s), End/Start of the month flows & whatever geopolitical headlines we're going to see. In that case I think we go to $87K and take out those equal highs there and target $90K+. If price does lose $80K we'll find ourselves in a solid high timeframe value area (I think) in the mid to low $70Ks. Might chop around there for a while and things will look scary. But from there I do believe we have a good chance of setting that higher timeframe higher low from the big impulse from $58K to the recent high at $87K. Best to keep an eye on the headlines and see how the market reacts. That will be leading. I think sentiment and outlook is pretty bearish already so if we were to absorb whatever selling happens down here and prices just start grinding up that'd be a big sign of strength to me and at that case I think this will just keep drifting up by shorts covering and sidelined/derisked capital moving back in over the days. It's going to be very easy to get chopped up or shaken out of your bias in the next 1-2 weeks I think. Easiest to just play things level by level and go from there. Don't assume supports or resistances break until you actually see it broken (on a daily candle close for example). That is how many people keep getting caught off guard.

$BTC FOMC coming up, end/start of the month and earnings season. All in the next 1-2 weeks. All these usually make for a choppy market environment. Afterwards I think price action should be cleaner again. Liquidity sits at the local highs and lows. Big cluster below $80K and then above $87K. Those are also the levels I am waiting for at this point. Not interested in trading anything in between really unless it's a super solid setup.

$BTC Fun starts above $84K

Think this is about the 3rd or 4th time just this year that people call for a "Black Monday". As far as I know, those previous cases BTC front ran that by dumping during the weekend. Hence, making the case for a weak stock market on Monday more sense. In this case not much is happening and I feel like it's just a lot of fear from the past few days of price action in especially the stock market. If this year has shown us anything it is that markets really don't care about whatever is going on (to a certain extend). Especially crypto has not been reacting to headlines and has been doing its own thing the past few months. Correlation traders have been getting washed out during this time as well. Over the months there have been just as many days that BTC was "correlated" to the Nasdaq 100 as days it was reversely correlated. So that says a lot. Obviously if stocks crater deep then yes, BTC will see some weakness too. But I think these calls for "Black Monday" are super exaggerated. Keep in mind this definition was created in 1987 when the Dow dropped -22% in a single day. People love naming previous big events to current situations and it never happens in the same way, especially when many call it beforehand. I don't know what color Monday's candle will be but all the fear mongering going on just seems excessive at this point. Just draw your high timeframe levels, sit back and relax. Don't overleverage (ever), have cash on the side and see how the market develops.

$BTC Still consolidating right around its previous highs. During the down trend, these were the signals to be careful of every time. But in the past few weeks/months, the bigger market structure has flipped bullish. So that's a big difference to note in today's scenario. Yesterday's daily candle/reversal shaped up nicely, let's see how the weekly closes.

$ETH Liquidity has now been taken on both sides and price is back in the same range it was in during August & September. Levels are clear. Above $2550 the bulls are back in control. Below $2300 the bears would be. In between we chop.

$ETH Retesting its Daily 200EMA which was sitting right below the triple low which got swept as liquidity. Interesting spot and technically this looks like a solid high timeframe area. Invalidation is clear, you don't want to see daily closes below that Daily 200EMA and ideally not even below $2350 where we are at right now. Otherwise you can start aiming for a retest of the Daily 200MA. Best you can do in this market is work in scenario's and different levels. This is a solid support until proven otherwise.

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$BTC Good recovery from that area. It finally flushed out a lot of the leverage which was the reversal point from the tweet. Now the key level will be $83K. Retake it, and the mid range and local highs are in play again. There's still a lot of untapped liquidity above $87K. But if $83K rejects, the bears remain in control. Very happy with how I've played this move. Sometimes you get in the flow of the market and flip at the right times which feels great.

$BTC The $85K level broke and the late longs got flushed out. About $500M in longs got liquidated but a lot of it entered straight back in. Meanwhile, Open interest is the highest it has been in this range and Coinbase premium is deep in the negative which shows there's been a lot of spot selling causing this move. With Open Interest as high as it is, we will likely see volatility high until the end of the week at least. Bulls need to retake $85K or I think the momentum is shifting downwards from here. There's plenty of positioning on both sides at this point.

$BTC Quite a few late longs trapped above $86K today. No open interest flush yet so that $85K level will be pretty key in the short term. Below there this starts accelerating. Especially with the near equal lows from before.

We might not have seen a ton of crazy new technologies or sectors developed this past cycle, but we have seen a big move towards actual revenue generating companies. Even the big DeFi protocols from the past few years are still raking in millions a month and have since also implemented some form of fee switch or buyback mechanism. The 2021 cycle kind of felt like the dot com bubble for DeFi. A lot of hype, no sustainable revenue/value accrual for holders. Coins fell and many have not made it back to that top since. With most investor unlocks done from protocols that did launch that cycle, I think at some point these can be pretty good long term spot buys. I don't think the likes of $UNI, $AAVE etc are going anywhere. But you might need a lot of patience for these and have a multi-year horizon. Newer protocols like $ENA, $PUMP and of course $HYPE are interesting but will have more volatile revenue and still have token unlocks ahead, so timing will be more difficult. I think ENA & PUMP will perform incredible during a hot market, but that's the key. Just some random thoughts. I think many of these big protocols have come down to reasonable levels by now. Obviously DeFi itself has not been hot while $ETH has underperformed this cycle too. But I don't think the DeFi lull lasts forever.

A market like this punishes selling early a lot. Every minor dip is a dip where people lose conviction or get stopped out and sell their solid positions. Sentiment still flips based on the color of the last daily or 4h candle. Good environment to keep trending from. Now let’s see if $BTC can lead with a break above $83K next week.

$BTC Took out most of its big liquidity cluster below, by sweeping the August lows. The big clusters that are left in this range sit at $80K & $82K. Price is not close to them but if it were to start grinding back up, those are your levels to watch as they will act as magnets and could cause a further squeeze up. Of course they are also sitting at Bitcoin's range high.

$BTC Another weekly close in the same price range. $74K & $83K remain the main high timeframe levels to watch. Going to be an interesting week, I would not be surprised if we end up seeing either of those levels.

The Total Crypto Market Cap is telling you everything you need to know. It is stuck in a clear range on the higher timeframe. This corresponds with $BTC's $60K-$80K range. If this is the start of a larger trend, you need to see a break above this resistance first. That will also signal a new higher high on the weekly timeframe. Until then, resistance is resistance and has been acting that way.

$XPL Chart looks very interesting. Maybe squeeze before the big unlock? Wouldn't be the first time. Would always recommend to just play the chart with these kind of coins. You never know what is playing in the background.

bitcoin:native No changes here. Just a lot of choppy price action right at a big level, which happens a lot. Until this completely loses this area, I think it will eventually see the break above $83K. Like I said, even in a bearish scenario where Bitcoin would fully reject after the $83K breakout, it still makes sense from a liquidity perspective to me.

bitcoin:native Sideways (mostly) ranging price action for the last ~10 days or so. Generally we see this kind of price action near the end and start of a new month. I'd expect the start of September to grab liquidity at one of these levels. If there's a reversal from that point then that could be a good play to watch. As we know, the start of the month is often a small deviation into a reversal for the rest of the month. So keep an eye out for that to occur. My overall bias for September is still bullish as long as bitcoin:native holds on to $74K.

$BTC A lot of good work has been done with this push, breaking important daily and weekly levels. But for the market structure to also shift back to bullish on the weekly, you need a break above those May highs. These are also what I still consider the range high in this $60K-$80K range. But the momentum is definitely in favor of the bulls, and I think dips are for buying. These initial impulses generally do give some retrace at some point but also tend to get another follow up leg. So don't rush yourself and overleverage only to get wiped out on an overnight wick like today. If this is the start of a larger trend, then you will have plenty of opportunities.