ADRIAN MORRIS ON AI, ASST, MSTR, SATS xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1nGeLMAlm…

📑 BRIEFING | Who owns 61,000 seized Bitcoin? Two governments. One pile of coins. About $5B at today's prices. THE CASE Zhimin Qian ran investment schemes in China from 2014 to 2017 and raised about 40B yuan (~$5.7B). Part of the proceeds went into Bitcoin. She fled to the UK, was arrested in York in April 2024, and was sentenced in November 2025 to 11 years and 8 months for money laundering involving crypto. Victims: more than 128,000 per UK prosecutors, more than 102,000 in the Chinese proceedings. THE SEIZURE UK authorities seized more than 61,000 BTC, one of the largest crypto seizures on record. TWO COURTS, TWO TRACKS UK | On Oct 12, the High Court ruled that Chinese law governs the victims' ownership claims. CHINA | A Tianjin court accepted a confiscation application on Sept 28. A notice on Oct 13 opened a six-month window for claimants. The filing covers 61,896.41552945 BTC, plus BCH, BTG, BSV, XRP, DOGE, cash and gold. Qian is treated as a fugitive there. DECIDED ✔ Chinese law applies to the victims' claims STILL OPEN ✖ Do victims own the coins, or only get their losses back? ✖ Must the UK hand anything over to China? ✖ Final ownership and distribution THE NUMBER TO WATCH UK coverage cites victim claims of about £640M (~$850M). That is not a court-fixed total, and it is roughly a sixth of the Bitcoin's current value. WHY IT MATTERS Seizures are turning governments into large Bitcoin holders. This case will help set the precedent for who gets the gain when seized Bitcoin rises in value.

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🟠 FRIDAY STACK. TODAY. 12:30 ET. LIVE ON X. Bitcoin had a bumpy week. Prices move, but the community stays. @_Adrian joins us to talk Bitcoin and the people who build around it. A good conversation to close out the week. 🧡 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1aJbddvLm…

🧪 LAB REPORT: Do US election odds move crypto? HYPOTHESIS Higher odds of a Democratic win = lower crypto prices. METHOD Schwab compared Kalshi's odds of Democrats winning both chambers with the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. RESULTS ▪️ A slightly negative link, but too small and inconsistent to be statistically meaningful ▪️ The two biggest weekly jumps in Democratic odds: the index fell 8.7% once and rose 5% another time ▪️ Heavy betting days showed a stronger link, but it came from one day in Nov 2025. Remove it and it fades CONCLUSION Schwab's crypto research lead, Jim Ferraioli, calls most of it noise. LIMITS It's a broad crypto index, not Bitcoin alone, and past data can't tell us how markets react on election night (Nov 3). WHAT DOES THE DATA SAY ABOUT POLICY? The Clarity Act stalled in the Senate on Sept 15 under a Republican majority, short of the 60 votes needed. The House had passed it 294-134, with 78 Democrats on board. Support and resistance both cross party lines. For Bitcoin, the Fed, inflation, liquidity and institutional demand likely matter more than who holds Congress. Will election night move Bitcoin, or is it just noise? 🤔 👇

One more Friday Stack to wrap up the week! Tomorrow, we're joined by @_Adrian for another good conversation about Bitcoin and the community that brings us together. 12:30 ET | Live on X Looking forward to seeing you all! Have a lovely, relaxing evening, everyone. 🫡🧡

📋 QUOTE REQUEST Insure $100M of AI company debt for one year. What does it cost? That price is the credit default swap (CDS) spread. Here is what the market is quoting: ▪️ Oracle: 300+ bps = $3M+ per year ▪️ SpaceX: 200+ bps = $2M+ per year ▪️ Meta: ~115 bps = ~$1.15M per year, a record close (about 119 intraday) Nvidia, Amazon and Broadcom hedging costs are rising too. Why Meta? It disclosed about $825B in future lease and contract commitments, up from ~$700B in July, and raised the low end of its capex forecast to $135B. The fair read: 1.15% a year is still a strong investment-grade price. This is not a default forecast. It's the market charging more for uncertainty. But the AI race is turning into a financing race.

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