Husband. No DMs
Joined January 2023
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Hard to argue with this. Watson has been sacked 33 times and now Sanders vs Saints 5. One of the reason I think Monken sat Watson was to give him a respite from being beat up. Running game is terrible then the penalties. OL has major issues.
Deshaun. Shedeur.
We’re focusing on the wrong thing with the #Browns.
Until the line can run block, protect the QB, & not commit the most penalties in the NFL, it won’t matter much who is QB.
Also, a defense that can’t hold the lead and can’t stop the run is an issue.
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2 point conversion decision is a math problem
Tie is .5 wins .5 losses
PS probability Saints score in last minute of OT
(1-PS) Saints don’t score
(1-PS) * .5 is the the frequency of getting half a win (tie)
PC probability of converting 2 pts for 1 win
PC >= (1-PS) * .5
IIRC league avg for PC is .47
Skipping a lot of steps
PS >= .06
If probability of Saints scoring is greater than 6% then go for 2
You could make an argument Browns are below NFL long term 2 pt conversion rate but not too much lower
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Tough loss for Browns. Had to go for 2. Shadeur needs PT to get better IMO.
Great day wagering so far.
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No problem moving on from Sanders after this year. Let er rip dude. I guess he just read the defense that well. Mind numbing to watch.
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What a joke the zebras were today in that game. It was unbelievable. Texas defense did shut down Mizzu in the 2nd half big time. Mizzu did show a lot weakness on defense. Texas outplayed them for sure. Nonetheless Texas did benefit greatly from a lot of very questionable referee calls though.
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Let’s give the Cavs a whole lot of credit. 76ers have a “dream team” type starting 5. Cavs jump off to a big lead, 76ers made a run but at the end of the day Cavs won easy. Cavs ball denial on defense was great. Bryant stepped up. Kenny used his players very well in the rotation. A lot to like. Long season
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Give the Cavs a whole lot of credit for this performance vs 76ers. Man it is so far to April 2027. Again I think potentially rotation is a lot better than last year.
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Prediction: Jared Verse is going to be next Browns fans pariah. The lack of production plus his arrogance are wearing very thin with the fans. Will be gone after 2027. If the Browns mess up the 1st round pick they got for Garrett they’ll basically received nothing in the trade.
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To add context
Watson as starter for Browns first quarter scoring. I left out 2023 Colts because he was only in for 5 plays or so IIRC
2022 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 5 times
3 points 1 time
2023 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 2 times
3 points 3 times
2024 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 3 times
3 points 1 time
7 points 2 times
10 points 1 time
2026 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 5 times
3 points 2 times
7 points 1 time
Browns have been shutout in 1st quarter 15 times in 26 games where he started (again left out 2023 game at Colts).
3 points 7 times
7 points 3 times
10 points 1 time
Avg scoring in 1st quarter for Browns with him as the starter is 2 points a game.
Seems weak.
Watson as starter for Browns first quarter scoring. I left out 2023 Colts because he was only in for 5 plays or so IIRC
2022 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 5 times
3 points 1 time
2023 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 2 times
3 points 3 times
2024 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 3 times
3 points 1 time
7 points 2 times
10 points 1 time
2026 1st Quarter scoring
0 points 5 times
3 points 2 times
7 points 1 time
Browns have been shutout in 1st quarter 15 times in 26 games where he started (again left out 2023 game at Colts).
3 points 7 times
7 points 3 times
10 points 1 time
Avg scoring in 1st quarter for Browns with him as the starter is 2 points a game.
Seems weak.
Not sure what is going on but Deshaun Watson has zero feel for the game in the first quarter. It’s a weekly problem. Also the 5-7 step drops in shotgun have to stop. Offensive line had their issues, but Watson can’t be dropping like that #Browns
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Monster day for me wagering. Happy about that. Was going to lay off NBA but got one down on Warriors ML last minute. I know the Clippers suck and knew Cuury was out but I was fairly certain Warriors would win anyway. I wasn’t going to bet but finally decided I’d be pissed all day if I didn’t make what I viewed as a good bet. So I got it down and covered.
Browns next week +3 vs Saints? I read too much hype on Browns. It fucks with my rationality. My inclination is Saints but would like to spot less than 3.
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Watched Warriors vs Lakers last night. Get to work this in. Gave @SportsBoyTony a little bit of grief over this post. As it turns out aggressive POA physical defense worked well vs Lakers Doncic and Reaves. Yes they scored some points but they earned them with low shooting percentages. Ball denial stay close and picking them up at 3 point line made it a real chore for those guys. It was disruptive. So kudos to Tony
Five NBA thoughts after five or so games:
5. I think Hawks have a shot to be this year’s version of 2025 Pacers. So do this year’s Pacers, provided Tyrese Haliburton stays on floor. … (cont.)
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