Chief Intel Officer, Betting Intelligence @betint_ai Board @ Verse Capital | Prediction Markets since ‘20 Custom AI Harnesses @classified_ai
Brooklyn, NY
Joined January 2011
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Major Announcement:
Incredibly proud to announce my new role as co-founder & Chief Intelligence Officer of Betting Intelligence, a private intelligence firm dedicated to a new signal layer: BETINT.
Read our new piece in the @nytimes published today.
BETINT in the New York Times:
Read BETINT CEO Sean Guillory’s new Op Ed on the rising threats to national security posed by prediction markets.
“ When gamblers threaten a military correspondent to change his reporting, when insiders trade on what the public doesn’t know, and when a missile strike becomes a disputed data point worth $14 million, that information is compromised.”
nytimes.com/2026/04/29/opini…
The release of political combos gives the ability to analyze volume on specific combinations.
Collins to win in Maine + Talarico to win in Texas has been the most popular combo I’ve seen in midterms.
In this case, a 7 state dem sweep parlay is gaining traction.
Introducing two new features to BETINT's TripWire:
1. Midterms Hub - BETINT's 1st special event dashboard, available to select media partners, researchers, and analysts.
This tool brings together real time market data, anomalies in trading and price action, aggregated weighted prices, and real time alerts curated directly to your focus.
2. Cashtags for Events - BETINT is debuting the first collateralized price for aggregated market data with the reveal of Midterm Cash Tags.
Get real time prices on every race in the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial with a single number, aggregated across 5 betting venues and weighted by volume.
$TXSenate is the hottest cashtag right now, tracking $29M in all time trading volume.
Reach out today for access and don't find out last on election night 👀
Recreated the entire market 72h before the Brazilian election on @Kalshi , @Polymarket and Polymarket US
This is the largest miss between prediction market accuracy and presidential elections since these markets have entered the mainstream.
Obviously probabilities are only that - probabilities.
But a very interesting display of market dynamics ahead of the US Midterm elections next week.
LT out here making picks on Kalshi 😂 kalshi.com/ideas/profiles/La…
G Elliot Morris reposted BETINT’s investigation into trading activity around Wedgewood’s fake polls.
It seems increasingly likely that the fake polls from Wedgewood Polls and SoCal Strategies were simply part of a coordinated shadow op to move betting markets, rather than people trying to boost progressives. Neera is pushing an ideological narrative
xitter.cf/Dan_Zmann/status/21131…
Today we're launching TripWire, the first newswire for prediction markets from @betint_ai.
It's the first realtime newswire for early signals and stories developing from market activity in betting & prediction markets. It covers every market from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more exchanges and defi platforms, tracking when they moved and why 🧵
No reporter, or even a whole newsroom, can watch hundreds of thousands of markets around the clock.
TripWire watches for them and pushes custom alerts when markets they are tracking trip.
View more about the Newswire product at betint.net
Curious to learn more? My DMs are open.
The Wedgewood fake-poll scandal is two prediction market stories in one:
1. A fake poll moved a governor's race on Kalshi, against the eventual winner, substantially
2. A Kalshi account tied to the pollster bet ahead of his old firm's polls
We pulled the data at @betint_ai 🧵
xitter.cf/betint_ai/status/21131…
A fake poll substantially moved a Wisconsin governor's race on Kalshi, against the eventual winner.
A Kalshi account tied to the pollster behind that fake poll bet ahead of his old firm's polls, 3 to 9 hours before their release, according to BETINT analysis.
Our investigation into Wedgewood Polls and Fake Pollsters Trading Prediction Markets: betint.net/p/kalshi-account-…
In January we called this the Poly-Pump Fake: markets "don't reward truth; they reward those who shape the momentum of truth."
Wisconsin showed a fake poll can move a market. Kentucky showed a pollster can bet around his own numbers. No rule stops either.
xitter.cf/betint_ai/status/20085…
Full breakdown in our extensive report: betint.net/p/kalshi-account-…