⚠️ Is Iran a collapsing state... or an existential threat? Matthew Hoh (@MatthewPHoh) dismantles the dual narrative of a collapsing Iran that is somehow also an overwhelming nuclear threat, arguing the push for escalation ignores military realities and rests on ideology over strategy. The same recycled lies are again dragging the United States toward confrontation with Iran. Matthew Hoh argues the case for escalation rests on a contradiction: "It's both at the same time, a pathetic hollow state that's on the verge of collapse. And the greatest threat to world peace because they're so powerful." The reality is that Iran did not represent an offensive threat to anyone, and would not have struck Israel or the Gulf Arab countries, unless we and the IDF together embarked on this foolish war. Hoh also questions claims that the U.S. has somehow held back against Iran in earlier rounds: "What weapon systems haven't we deployed? What forces haven't we brought to bear?" Those questions are critically important, given that we appear to be on the brink of returning to full-scale war, with the same weapons, attacking the same targets, but expecting a different outcome. It’s worse than foolish, because almost certainly a new attack will result in an even stronger Iranian counterstrike against Israel, against our Arab allies, and against our own forces. All of it is avoidable, but we seem hell-bent on initiating something that will harm our own interests. Escalation continues to be driven by ideology and institutional interests rather than any realistic assessment of U.S. capabilities or strategic outcomes. Watch this essential conversation from Daniel Davis Deep Dive. ⬇️ danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

This is so pathetic. President Trump deceiving his own followers, playing to their base instincts of wanting to hammer our opponents, fooling them into believing we have beat Iran. But the reality is clear that we have suffered far greater than we should ever have suffered, and for whatever genuine damage we have done to Iran, it is far less than the economic and military damage we have suffered ourselves. It’s of course also a flat out lie that Iran was two weeks from having a nuclear weapon. Trump very well knows they didn’t have a weapons program — which his intelligence director told him. Also, multiple administration officials have since outright confirmed that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, and therefore Trump did not prevent them from getting one. The entire war was based on a lie, and if he returns to fighting again — in a new violation of the Constitution in the 1973 War Powers Act — he will again be putting American lives at risk to cover his lie. In my view, that is a profound impeachable offense, and he should be removed from office according to the US Constitution and any morality that may still be left in the US Congress.

🚨 Europe Rejected Peace With Putin. Now It’s Risking Its Economy to Keep Ukraine’s War Going Retired UK Commodore Steve Jermy argues Europe made a costly strategic mistake by rejecting earlier peace opportunities with Russia, including the Istanbul terms. He says many European leaders can only fantasize about getting such good terms now. When facing Russia’s stronger negotiating position, he contends, Europe delaying accepting a realistic settlement only produces worse terms later — a reality Europe and Ukraine are now confronting as the war continues. Beyond the battlefield, Jermy warns Europe’s economic position is deteriorating. With France struggling, Germany flirting with recession, and energy pressures mounting, the central question is no longer purely military. “Where is the money going to come from” just to conduct affairs of state, much less for weapons and ammunition that don’t even exist in sufficient quantities for Ukraine, he asks, noting that the liquidity needed to sustain support for Ukraine is looking increasingly scarce. Jermy also raises concerns about the long-term burden on European taxpayers. Given Ukraine’s economic decline and growing debt, he believes much of the money sent to Kyiv is unlikely ever to be repaid — meaning future generations across Europe may ultimately pay the cost while leaders face hard questions about prioritizing the war over domestic needs. Watch this critical clip from Daniel Davis Deep Dive. ⬇️ danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

One month ago, I pointed out I would record Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the Iranian regime would collapse within two weeks. It was a farce then, and I think it’s important that we pull up their statements from the past to expose why we should give them no credibility now. This mockery of a declaration last month is in the same category of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth telling us numerous times in the beginning of the Iran war that we had already won. Or President Trump routinely telling us that Iran is “begging for a deal.” None of it has been true, and virtually every word they tell us is either hideously bad analysis or intentional deception. I’m not sure which is worse, but I know it’s all bad for the United States of America. It is terrifying to realize that the ppl in charge of our government at the highest levels, have this low of leadership capacity — and quality and lack of morals — and are the ones that will decide whether we’re about to plunge into an even worse phase of this war.

⚠️ Predicting Trump on Iran Is a Fool’s Errand—And the Backup Plan might be more Dangerous Matthew Hoh (@MatthewPHoh) argues that forecasting President Trump’s next steps on Iran is essentially impossible. The unpredictability and desire for control at the top create cascading confusion across the U.S. government, its surrogates, and the media. “I’d have a better time predicting what the weather is going to be like next year…than figuring out what Donald Trump is going to do next week,” Hoh says. Hoh expects Washington may fall back on a pressure campaign modeled on the 1991–2003 approach to Iraq: sanctions, isolation, periodic strikes, and efforts to provoke regime change. Iran, the region, and America’s position are fundamentally different today, however, making the strategy far more uncertain and dangerous. The US was free to have foolish sanctions on Iraq for 10 years, because there was no impact on the oil supplies coming out of the region. That’s not the case this time, as we’re already in a critical supply crisis. Continuing on in this manner will only raise the cost for everyone. With earlier regime-change plans already failed, Hoh warns this default path remains “very dangerous,” with potential hesitation tied only to the Israeli election. Watch this essential conversation from Daniel Davis Deep Dive. ⬇️ danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

This is outright psychotic. Pleading with Israeli voters to elect his party because the country whose nuclear program President Trump claims we “obliterated“ in 2025, and have been at war with for seven months, devastating their economy and military platforms — this is who you are terrified of? As a reminder, Israel has at least 200 nuclear weapons. And you’re telling me they live in *existential fear* of the theoretical possibility that Tehran may, someday, possibly get a nuclear weapon, even though they haven’t done it in 47 years? This is someone who lusts after war, and cannot live without the thought of killing peoples from other lands. I’m sorry if that makes anyone mad or wounds your sensibilities, but the facts are screaming in your face that what I wrote is true. It is therefore a danger to our country to be linked to this war-luster.

The harsh reality is that it doesn’t matter how many sanctions are or are not on Russia: Ukraine already doesn’t have anything to bring to the table for negotiations. Russia will either obtain its requirements via an ugly negotiation where Ukraine has to surrender territory and adopt neutrality, or Russia will simply continue the war until it has achieved its desires on the battlefield — which I promise you will be much worse for Kyiv than even the ugliest of a diplomatic end entered into willingly.

This goes way beyond general national defense preparedness. This has the earmarks of something urgent and much, much larger scale than anything previously contemplated. Preparations of this nature and magnitude would only be envisioned for an attack on America from a major global power as part of a world war. Given the urgency with which Pentagon officials are announcing this initiative, I’m worried that they know something is coming and they’re not telling us…

This revelation @IuliiaMendel here exposes, demonstrates the near criminal negligence of Zelensky, then-President Biden, and then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Had they just allowed the diplomatic process to reach its logical conclusion, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives would have been preserve, the political future of Ukraine would have been guaranteed, and the safety and security of Europe would have been assured. Instead, all those men conspired together to plunge Ukraine deeper into war, more destruction on country, a greater death toll and leaving us all with a specter that this war could still expand into a Russia NATO conflict (that ultimately could go nuclear). History will condemn these gentlemen.

Again, I will point out what should by now be obvious: there was no nuclear weapons program in 2018, in 2024, in 2025, or 2026. President Trump did not stop this non-existent program with either the 2025 or 2026 wars, and now a strong argument can be made that he is *shoving* Iran into a position where it may actually develop nuclear weapons. If that happens, it will exclusively be because of the absurd and irrational actions of President Trump, from 2018 to the present day.

It continues to grieve me how disconnected from military reality the Ukrainian president, and all his western supporters remain: it doesn’t matter if they have Starlink fully operational or not at all. They will lose the war, because they have effectively no air defense, insufficient men to staff the front lines, insufficient industrial capacity, and insufficient money. That dooms them to losing a war of attrition, because Russia has more than enough of every category. To continue ignore that, is to willfully condemn hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian men to unnecessary deaths. That will be the legacy of this president as well as all the other leaders of the West who have equally backed a suicidal policy for Ukraine.

Sure, Iran wants to make a deal. They just require you to fulfill seven major obligations first. Otherwise, they don’t wanna have anything to do with President Trump. And if making a deal by Sunday night is the standard or an attack will come, then he’s condemned us all to return to war.

President Trump doesn’t even hide it: brags about making money off the Iran war, and brags about stealing the oil from Venezuela. This is a shame and a disgrace for our country, and makes us look like one of the worst bullies in the world, because our great power is disconnected from morality. It’s just used for what President Trump can exploit from other people. It’s just about extracting the maximum amount of money for him, and lives don’t matter. Regular Americans don’t matter. Only the super elite getting more wealthy matters. You hear it from his own mouth here.

⚠️ Is the prospect of war with Iran being driven by security concerns... or by election politics? Alastair Crooke says prominent Israeli military and intelligence figures are warning against military action before upcoming elections, arguing there is "no evidence, none at all" to justify an attack on Iran. He also argues that Tehran is largely indifferent to U.S. political outcomes because it sees itself engaged in a long-term geopolitical struggle that extends far beyond any single election cycle. Watch this important clip from the latest episode of Daniel Davis Deep Dive. danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

⚠️Alastair Crooke: The West Isn't Ready for What Comes After Iran War What happens if a conflict with Iran ends not with a Western victory, but with Iran in a stronger position than before — an outcome all but certain at this point. In this clip, former British diplomat Alastair Crooke argues that the real issue is bigger than Iran. He warns that the West is already in a period of decline, and a loss to Iran could signal end of the era of unquestioned dominance by the West. Today’s elite leader class across the Western world are unprepared for the transition to a multipolar world. "The West, including the United States, is in a period of severe decline." Watch this powerful exchange we had to hear what Mr. Crooke thinks will happen next. danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

⚠️ No Ceasefire, No Pause: Russia Says the War Will Continue -- Until Ukraine Agrees to Russian Terms or Russia Achieves a Military Victory In this clip from Daniel Davis Deep Dive, Russia's OSCE Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy says Russia remains open to negotiations but argues that Europe and Ukraine's current approach is centered on "the defeat of Russia, pressure on Russia, sanctions against Russia" in an attempt to force Moscow to bend to the West's preferred terms. His warning is stark: if Moscow's security concerns are not addressed, continued military operations may be "the only option." He also explains why Russia rejects a ceasefire, arguing it would simply give Kyiv time to regroup rather than lead to a lasting settlement. "We are ready for a dialogue, but I think we are the only ones ready for a dialogue and for diplomacy." You can hate Russia, but the harsh fact is that they have the military, industrial, and economic advantages to demand terms, and our side does not. To continue ignoring that painful reality will only condemn more Ukrainian men to death - but it will not change the outcome. Watch this critical exchange from Historic Russia: The Land Putin Will Not Give Back. 👇 danieldavisdeepdive.substack…

Frances has it right: the world needs an *effective* United Nations, but right now it rarely produces anything of value — and is in desperate need of reform. Key problem: it was born in 1945 w commendable objectives. But it’s not 1945 anymore. It’s key structures have not changed much since then, but it’s been covered over with buckets full of bureaucracy, to the extent it barely serves any positive purpose. In my view, either the nations of the world cooperate in serious diplomacy to reform the UN, or it will go the way of the League of Nations – making the world a lot more violent and wars more likely. open.substack.com/pub/byfran…

⚠️ Is the Ukraine war really about territory... or something deeper? In this exclusive interview, Dmitry Polyanskiy argues that Moscow's core concern has never been land, but the rights, identity, and security of Russian-speaking populations. Ambassador Polyanskiy says buffer zones and territorial questions can be negotiated, but "people are not negotiable. Human rights are not negotiable. Dignity is not negotiable." Whether you agree or disagree, understanding Russia's stated position is essential to understanding where any future peace talks may lead. Watch the full clip from Daniel Davis Deep Dive. 👇 danieldavisdeepdive.substack…