Senior Research Fellow @IRSEM1 Visiting Professor @collegeofeurope Associate @CERI_SciencesPo FPA, EU-Russia, Central Europe, Populism in IR
Joined April 2012
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David Cadier retweeted
Please read the wonderful 21st Aron Lecture “Russia and Ukraine: Societies transformed by war” by @colinlebedev, delivered at @BrookingsFP & published today
👇🇺🇦 @mkimmage @AngelaStent @apolyakova @andrewsweiss @KofmanMichael @DavidCadier @tara_varma @MSchulzewessel @nicolange_
"While a strong state demobilized Russians, a weak state galvanized Ukrainians... Civilians who took up arms in 2014 frequently emphasized this distinction during interviews: 'We didn’t take up arms to fight for our state, but to fight for our country.'" brook.gs/3RmOvXh
David Cadier retweeted
NEW 🚨
US MOVING MORE ASSETS OUT OF EUROPE.
A military source close to the matter tells me the US has briefed European allies that it will reduce its force posture in Europe by 50% when it comes to deep strike capabilities.
This includes aircraft carriers and jets.
The US said it expects European allies to make up that gap and present their plans to do so before the Ankara summit.
Allies took note and SACEUR will come up with a plan for Europe to replace the outgoing capabilities though we don’t expect it will be like for like.
The announcement was made at a meeting held at NATO HQ on Friday where Alexander Velez-Green, Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary of War for Policy briefed European allies.
I understand that US assets taken from Europe will be moved to the Middle East and Pacific regions.
Separately a NATO diplomat told me that the US has long warned it would shift assets away from Europe and this could represent an opportunity for European allies to step up and maximise their capabilities in Europe to better calibrate deterrence against Russia while reducing reliance on the US.
Full story on @TVPWorld_com soon.
David Cadier retweeted
Of note, the author of this piece was Lithuania's ambassador to NATO:
"the current debate around possible reductions reveals a deeply unhealthy European tendency: a kind of European “hunger games” — a scramble in which countries compete against one another to secure a scarce U.S. military force presence, much like the dystopian contest in the film of the same name...
The competition that results is often strategically incoherent. Instead of encouraging European cohesion, it triggers internal rivalries and political positioning precisely when Europe should be focused on coordination and collective capability-building."
David Cadier retweeted
A lot of misinformation about Tusk's remarks today on Poland and nuclear weapons. Here's what he actually said:
"We will cooperate with our allies, including France, which has made this specific offer, and as our own autonomous capabilities increase, we will also strive to...1/2
This quoted post is unavailable.
David Cadier retweeted
French nukes: It's hard to overstate how much of a sea change it is that countries such as the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Germany are open to talking with France about nuclear deterrence. We have been getting used to it — but it's a major, major shift.
David Cadier retweeted
1er anniversaire. Trump II. Quoi de neuf ? E. Chelle et D. Cadier
diploweb.com/Planisphere-Tru…
Podcast et synthèse rédigée sur @diploweb
@radionotredame @radiorcf @IRSEM1 @ElisaChelle @DavidCadier @histgeo_edu_num
David Cadier retweeted
💬 "Ce qui va être scruté pendant cette réunion, c'est l'attitude des #ÉtatsUnis."
Volodymyr #Zelensky est à l'Élysée pour un sommet de la coalition des volontaires. Analyse avec David Cadier, chercheur à l'IRSEM et enseignant à Sciences Po Paris
David Cadier retweeted
#TheDAweekendread
👉 insightful policy brief on the Coalition of the Willing for 🇺🇦 by @ElieTenenbaum and @DavidCadier published by 🇳🇴 @nupinytt. Underlying 🇨🇵 vision, ambitions and potential contribution within this coalition led with 🇬🇧
@Ifri_org
@IRSEM
@Armees_Gouv
@DGRIS_FR
What does “able & willing” means for France? Happy to share this contribution with @DavidCadier as a part of @nupinytt project on European Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine 🇪🇺⚔️ 🇺🇦 thank you @YfReykers & John Karlsrud for leading the team! nupi.no/en/publications/cris…
David Cadier retweeted
A longer draft (or a longer classified version) of the US national security strategy reportedly identified specific European countries – Austria, Hungary, Italy & Poland – for the US to “work more with…with the goal of pulling them away from” the EU. defenseone.com/policy/2025/1…
David Cadier retweeted
What does “able & willing” means for France? Happy to share this contribution with @DavidCadier as a part of @nupinytt project on European Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine 🇪🇺⚔️ 🇺🇦 thank you @YfReykers & John Karlsrud for leading the team! nupi.no/en/publications/cris…
David Cadier retweeted
À 18h #SensPublic 👉 Ukraine : plan de paix ou capitulation ?
Invités :
@DavidCadier, Chercheur en sécurité européenne à l’IRSEM
Paul Gogo, Journaliste
@SylvieBermann, Ancienne ambassadrice de France à Pékin
David Cadier retweeted
7/ The speech shows Zelensky understands the stakes — but also that he cannot decide. Washington pushes, Europe resists, Moscow waits, and Kyiv plays for time in the narrowest strategic corridor it has had since 2022.
David Cadier retweeted
L’Ukraine ne peut pas gagner cette guerre. Il ne doit pas la perdre. Le cadre d’une négociation réaliste qui correspondrait à cet objectif est bien connu. Le plan de Trump le respecte. Reste à en négocier les termes. L’alternative, c’est la prolongation d’une guerre dévastatrice.
David Cadier retweeted
Moment historique. Ce soir, la Diète 🇵🇱 vote à la quasi unanimité la ratification du #TraitédeNancy signé le 9 mai dernier entre @EmmanuelMacron et @donaldtusk. Ce traité fondateur comporte une clause de défense renforcée. Ainsi qu'une journée 🇵🇱-🇫🇷 fixée au 20 avril. 🇫🇷🇵🇱🇪🇺
David Cadier retweeted
Poland has announced that it will close its border with Belarus from the end of Thursday this week due to Minsk hosting Russia's Zapad military exercises, which begin on Friday notesfrompoland.com/2025/09/…
David Cadier retweeted
"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help." #zapad
europeanleadershipnetwork.or…
David Cadier retweeted
10 000 personnes ce matin pour le lancement de la première Fabrique de la Diplomatie, immense succès. Merci aux équipes du Quai d'Orsay et de Sorbonne Nouvelle. Les Affaires étrangères sont les affaires de tous !
David Cadier retweeted
⚡️Hungary and Slovakia won’t back the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó said Monday. The move comes in response to EU plans to phase out Russian energy imports. Is this the usual blackmail (for an exemption), or we'd see the first real veto?
David Cadier retweeted
🧵1/
🚨New article out in @JEI_Publication!
How do populists manage regional integration once in power?
Are they always anti-regionalist? Or is the picture more complex?
This study explores the many faces of Populist Regionalism in Europe & Latin America👇
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
David Cadier retweeted
OTAN : « On va vers un OTAN plus européen (…) une des obsessions de Trump est que les Européens dépensent plus. Et agiter cette menace de quitter l’OTAN est une façon de les inviter à investir davantage dans leur défense » prévient @DavidCadier. #SensPublic