Fantastic Mr Stocks 🦊 @unusual_whales + @TrendSpider affiliate I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer Stock Analysis & Cinema Trading to acquire @A24 NFA
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“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.”
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$GOOGL
The uptrend that has been holding bulls up since March 31st, 2025 is being tested once again, & we’re currently trading right around that trendline.
$287.65 is the MOST important level to watch right now.
Breaking below that level opens the door for a move toward:
$282.73 — Weekly Fib
$282.49 — Monthly 20SMA
$281.58 — Weekly 100EMA
What’s interesting is how closely these three levels align, creating a potential support zone between $281.58–$282.73.
If bulls can defend any of the levels above, I would expect at least a bounce toward the Monthly 20EMA at $294.20, with $296.68 as the next upside target.
Pay attention to $AAPL here
$AAPL — DOWN $10.73 SINCE MY CALL TO SHORT APPLE
Not only did we get the move lower, but Apple topped out right around the resistance levels I originally gave
Now I’m watching for a potential retest sometime this week to look for another entry into puts.
BEARISH SCENARIO:
My main downside target remains $344.57, which is where I’d look to take profits on puts IF bulls step in & defend that level.
However, if we break below $344.57 & $342.88, I’d consider holding puts for a potential move toward:
$339.62
$336.98
$334.34
WORST-CASE SCENARIO:
If FOMC & earnings trigger a much larger market selloff, the lowest range I could see Apple reaching this week is $330.59–$327.50.
$GOOGL — EARNINGS SOON!
I've been digging through the institutional options flow on Unusual Whales & there's some VERY interesting positioning heading into earnings.
The biggest standout is the January 2027 $360 calls.
On Tuesday, we saw roughly $22M in repeated floor transactions, with ask-side activity dominating. What makes this even more interesting is that open interest jumped by 38,685 contracts overnight, bringing total OI to 53,984!
That's substantial new exposure, although it doesn't guarantee those calls were bought to open.
We also saw around 10,200 contracts in November $355/$385 call spreads today, alongside significant put positioning & other multi-leg structures.
Here's how the overall flow has shifted:
Monday: −$27.1M net premium
Tuesday: +$44.1M
Wednesday: +$4M through approximately 3:54 PM
So while Tuesday showed a major bullish shift, today's activity has been much more balanced.
Now here's where things get interesting...
With $GOOGL around $325.45, the October 30 ATM straddle is pricing approximately a ±6.3% move, giving us a reference range of $305–$346.
Key levels I'm watching:
Bulls: $330–$331 → $342–$346 → $350 → $360
Bears: $322.50 → $320 → $313.83 → $305–$309
Unusual Whales also shows the largest positive OI-based gamma concentration at $360, which is now both the OI call wall & magnet.
My takeaway? There's meaningful upside positioning being established, particularly further out into January, but the immediate earnings flow isn't nearly as one-sided as some of those massive call transactions might suggest.
I'm leaning cautiously bullish on the positioning, but earnings will ultimately decide whether those upside levels come into play.
Let's see what Google delivers
$GOOGL — EARNINGS TOMORROW & THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING! 👀
We failed to close above $320.75, but more importantly, bulls managed to secure another close above $319.15, which remains my most important level to watch!
With earnings tomorrow, I’m expecting plenty of traps in BOTH directions.
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS FLOW!
According to Unusual Whales, Tuesday’s flow saw a significant shift toward bullish activity:
$175.9M in bullish premium
$128.7M in bearish premium
Approximately $44.1M in reported net bullish premium
That’s a roughly $71M bullish swing compared to Monday’s net bearish flow!
What really caught my attention was the January 15, 2027 $360 calls, which saw roughly $41M in total traded premium, with the majority of the activity occurring at the ask.
We saw repeated multimillion-dollar transactions between 3:14 PM & 3:57 PM ET, suggesting one or more large institutional orders being executed in pieces.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean every transaction was a fresh bullish position. Some could be rolls, spreads or existing positions being adjusted.
The next open-interest update will help us determine how much new positioning was actually created.
Still, that’s some pretty interesting flow heading into earnings!
SO WHAT AM I WATCHING?
The main goal is to continue defending our falling wedge/bull pennant support trend, even if we briefly lose $319.15.
As long as that trend holds, bulls still have a fighting chance heading into earnings.
And I mean, there’s nothing quite like heading into earnings down 21% from ATH while trading within a bullish reversal pattern! 😂
BULLISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If earnings are received positively & we gap higher, I’d genuinely be surprised if we don’t at least attempt to retest:
$330.81 (200EMA)
$341.23 (200SMA) — Higher-end target
BEARISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If investors don’t like the report, I’m watching:
$313.83
$306/$305
And depending on how FOMC plays out & how the broader market reacts, the downside could extend even further.
For now, $319.15 & our support trend are EVERYTHING!
The flow is encouraging, the technical setup is interesting, but earnings will ultimately determine whether bulls can turn this into a meaningful breakout or whether we have another leg down ahead of us!
I’m buying this shit ASAP
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$SPY — FOMC COMING UP NOW
Take a look at these charts because we're approaching a VERY interesting spot.
Since October 6th, SPY has been trading below a descending resistance trendline, with each rally forming a bearish rising wedge before eventually breaking down. The previous three rejections led to declines of 1.43%, 2.41% & 2.03%.
Today we reached $772.69, testing that descending resistance once again, but we have NOT tested my key $772.86 level yet.
What's interesting is that all of this is happening inside a much larger potential bull pennant, visible on both the hourly & daily charts, while the daily is also developing a potential inverse H&S.
The options flow adds another layer: UW's latest volume call wall sits at $772, with gamma flips around $770.10–$770.21. Institutional flow remains mixed heading into FOMC, despite substantial new call OI confirmed overnight.
For bulls: Break & hold above $772.86, opening the door toward $775, $778.58–$780 & eventually $781.62.
For bears: Another rejection could trigger a rising wedge breakdown, with $770.15, $768, $765.22 & $761.83 as levels to watch.
The important thing here is that a short-term bearish breakdown wouldn't necessarily invalidate the larger bullish patterns.
With FOMC minutes away, this could be the catalyst that finally decides which direction SPY takes!
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
$GOOGL
This is kinda scary not going to lie
$GOOGL — EARNINGS TOMORROW & THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING! 👀
We failed to close above $320.75, but more importantly, bulls managed to secure another close above $319.15, which remains my most important level to watch!
With earnings tomorrow, I’m expecting plenty of traps in BOTH directions.
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS FLOW!
According to Unusual Whales, Tuesday’s flow saw a significant shift toward bullish activity:
$175.9M in bullish premium
$128.7M in bearish premium
Approximately $44.1M in reported net bullish premium
That’s a roughly $71M bullish swing compared to Monday’s net bearish flow!
What really caught my attention was the January 15, 2027 $360 calls, which saw roughly $41M in total traded premium, with the majority of the activity occurring at the ask.
We saw repeated multimillion-dollar transactions between 3:14 PM & 3:57 PM ET, suggesting one or more large institutional orders being executed in pieces.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean every transaction was a fresh bullish position. Some could be rolls, spreads or existing positions being adjusted.
The next open-interest update will help us determine how much new positioning was actually created.
Still, that’s some pretty interesting flow heading into earnings!
SO WHAT AM I WATCHING?
The main goal is to continue defending our falling wedge/bull pennant support trend, even if we briefly lose $319.15.
As long as that trend holds, bulls still have a fighting chance heading into earnings.
And I mean, there’s nothing quite like heading into earnings down 21% from ATH while trading within a bullish reversal pattern! 😂
BULLISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If earnings are received positively & we gap higher, I’d genuinely be surprised if we don’t at least attempt to retest:
$330.81 (200EMA)
$341.23 (200SMA) — Higher-end target
BEARISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If investors don’t like the report, I’m watching:
$313.83
$306/$305
And depending on how FOMC plays out & how the broader market reacts, the downside could extend even further.
For now, $319.15 & our support trend are EVERYTHING!
The flow is encouraging, the technical setup is interesting, but earnings will ultimately determine whether bulls can turn this into a meaningful breakout or whether we have another leg down ahead of us!
DMP retweeted
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
DMP retweeted
$TSLA — WE HAVE OFFICIALLY BROKEN ABOVE THE 200EMA/SMA!
My October 15th analysis played out almost perfectly!
Bulls defended my $355/$354 support zone, holding the right shoulder of the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern I’ve been discussing.
The biggest confirmation I wanted was a breakout above the 200EMA/SMA, and yesterday we finally got it!
Not only that, but we’ve already tested & broken above my $400 target!
SO WHAT’S NEXT?
The most important level right now is $408.45 (today’s high).
We’ve reached the monthly resistance trendline that’s been holding bulls back since December 2025.
If bulls can break above & hold $408/$409, my next upside targets are:
$412.80
$420/$421 — Main target
BUT HERE’S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING!
If we continue rejecting $408/$409, we could be looking at a short-term top & a potential pullback.
My first downside levels to watch are:
$398.10
$393.80
If bulls retest these levels & defend them, that would be an extremely bullish development in my eyes!
It would suggest buyers are stepping in at higher levels, potentially setting us up for another attempt to break $408/$409 & push toward $420/$421.
WHAT IF WE BREAK BELOW $398/$393?
That’s where I’d start watching for a deeper pullback toward:
$385.94 (200EMA)
$377.57 (200SMA)
$375.39
$374.33
And here’s the thing: I wouldn’t automatically consider that bearish!
After a move like this, a pullback toward these moving averages could be perfectly healthy, especially if bulls defend them & establish a higher low.
That could set up another attempt to push toward $420/$421 AT LEAST!
For now, $408/$409 is EVERYTHING!
Break above & hold it, and bulls have a path toward $412.80 followed by $420/$421.
Reject it & I’ll be watching how buyers respond at $398.10/$393.80 before considering those deeper support levels.
The inverse H&S breakout has already delivered. Now it’s all about whether bulls can sustain the momentum!
$TSLA
LADIES & GENTLEMEN, WE’RE RIGHT BACK WHERE WE’VE BEEN SINCE JUNE 😂
Bulls continue attempting to reclaim the 200 EMA, only to either get REJECTED or fail to defend it once they’re above!
But here’s where things get INTERESTING!
Back on October 7th, I mentioned that $TSLA could be forming an INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS on BOTH the daily & weekly charts!
The daily is the smaller setup, while the weekly looks much more promising overall.
My downside targets for the daily right shoulder were $355.54–$354.05.
And where did we bottom today?
$355.23! 🎯
Not only did we defend that zone BEAUTIFULLY, but we also defended the 50 SMA at $358.76!
And funny enough, that same moving average is where we last bottomed on September 30th before rallying toward $388!
NOW HERE’S THE PLAN!
As long as Bulls continue defending $355.54–$354.05 and preferably the 50 SMA at $358.76, there’s a possibility that we’re finally forming the bottom needed for another attempt toward $400!
BUT before we get too excited about $400, we have TWO major obstacles:
200 EMA: $377.49
200 SMA: $388.49
We’ve struggled to reclaim & HOLD these moving averages since June, so breaking above both & successfully turning them into support would be a HUGE development for Bulls!
NOW LET’S TALK ABOUT TOMORROW!
The main priority is securing a WEEKLY CLOSE above the daily 50 SMA at $358.76!
The MOST BULLISH scenario would be a weekly close above the weekly 9 SMA at $364.80, potentially setting us up for another push higher next week!
AND THERE’S MORE!
$TSLA has been trading within a MASSIVE FALLING WEDGE for over 10 MONTHS!
Combine that with the potential daily & weekly inverse H&S patterns, and we have TWO technically bullish setups developing simultaneously!
Oh, and did I mention EARNINGS ARE ONLY 14 DAYS AWAY?
Now let’s cover the Bearish scenario
If Bulls fail to defend $355.54–$354.05 & close below the 50 SMA, I would start looking toward the WEEKLY inverse H&S setup for a potentially deeper right-shoulder formation.
My next downside targets would be:
$347.17 → $344.92 → $342.11
That doesn’t automatically invalidate the larger bullish setup, but it would suggest the daily pattern needs more time or has failed to hold its expected support.
SO HERE’S THE BIG PICTURE!
We have a potential daily inverse H&S forming near support, a larger weekly inverse H&S developing, a 10+ month falling wedge & earnings approaching!
BUT NONE OF THESE PATTERNS ARE CONFIRMED YET!
$355.54–$354.05 IS MY LINE IN THE SAND!
DMP retweeted
$GOOGL — EARNINGS TOMORROW & THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING! 👀
We failed to close above $320.75, but more importantly, bulls managed to secure another close above $319.15, which remains my most important level to watch!
With earnings tomorrow, I’m expecting plenty of traps in BOTH directions.
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS FLOW!
According to Unusual Whales, Tuesday’s flow saw a significant shift toward bullish activity:
$175.9M in bullish premium
$128.7M in bearish premium
Approximately $44.1M in reported net bullish premium
That’s a roughly $71M bullish swing compared to Monday’s net bearish flow!
What really caught my attention was the January 15, 2027 $360 calls, which saw roughly $41M in total traded premium, with the majority of the activity occurring at the ask.
We saw repeated multimillion-dollar transactions between 3:14 PM & 3:57 PM ET, suggesting one or more large institutional orders being executed in pieces.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean every transaction was a fresh bullish position. Some could be rolls, spreads or existing positions being adjusted.
The next open-interest update will help us determine how much new positioning was actually created.
Still, that’s some pretty interesting flow heading into earnings!
SO WHAT AM I WATCHING?
The main goal is to continue defending our falling wedge/bull pennant support trend, even if we briefly lose $319.15.
As long as that trend holds, bulls still have a fighting chance heading into earnings.
And I mean, there’s nothing quite like heading into earnings down 21% from ATH while trading within a bullish reversal pattern! 😂
BULLISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If earnings are received positively & we gap higher, I’d genuinely be surprised if we don’t at least attempt to retest:
$330.81 (200EMA)
$341.23 (200SMA) — Higher-end target
BEARISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If investors don’t like the report, I’m watching:
$313.83
$306/$305
And depending on how FOMC plays out & how the broader market reacts, the downside could extend even further.
For now, $319.15 & our support trend are EVERYTHING!
The flow is encouraging, the technical setup is interesting, but earnings will ultimately determine whether bulls can turn this into a meaningful breakout or whether we have another leg down ahead of us!
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
DMP retweeted
$NVDA
We managed to close above the 9EMA at $217.58, but we’re not completely out of the woods just yet!
On the 4HR, we haven’t quite broken out of our falling wedge, while on the Daily we’re starting to peek above the upper trendline.
However, I won’t consider this a legitimate breakout until we reclaim the 50EMA at $220.59 & 20EMA at $220.74, followed by a daily close above both!
The most bullish scenario would be reclaiming & closing above the 50SMA at $222.16, which would give me much more confidence that our recent bottom is in.
NOW FOR THE BEARISH SCENARIO!
As long as we continue rejecting these moving averages, or fall back below the 9EMA at $217.58, I’ll be watching for another retest of:
$215.79 — 100EMA
$214.40 — 100SMA
If we break & close below both, $210.26 comes right back into play!
And if you read my post over the weekend, you’ll remember that the bottom of our larger uptrend channel sits around $210.11 tomorrow.
That’s the lowest I’d ideally want to see us go, because losing that trendline would put the larger bullish structure at risk.
NOW HERE’S SOMETHING INTERESTING FROM THE OPTIONS FLOW!
I spent some time going through $NVDA’s recent activity on Unusual Whales, and the positioning is actually pretty mixed heading into FOMC.
The reported gamma flip sits around $218–$218.68, with an open-interest call wall at $220.
Funny enough, that’s almost exactly where our key moving averages are sitting!
So reclaiming $220–$222 becomes even more interesting, although that call wall could also act as resistance.
On the bearish side, there’s notable options positioning around $215, which lines up closely with our 100EMA/100SMA support zone.
I also found some significant institutional-sized downside activity, including roughly $17.4M in December 2028 $280 puts on October 26, with the following day’s open interest increasing by almost the exact number of contracts traded.
That’s strong evidence of newly established put positions, but given the expiration, I wouldn’t automatically interpret it as institutions betting on an immediate breakdown. It could just as easily be longer-term portfolio protection.
The biggest takeaway?
The flow isn’t overwhelmingly bullish or bearish. We’re seeing positioning on BOTH sides, which makes sense with FOMC tomorrow.
And remember, we have Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some aggressive moves in either direction!
For now, $217.58 is my immediate level to defend, $220.59–$222.16 is what I want bulls to reclaim, and $210.11 remains the major uptrend support I absolutely want to see hold!
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
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$NVDA
We managed to close above the 9EMA at $217.58, but we’re not completely out of the woods just yet!
On the 4HR, we haven’t quite broken out of our falling wedge, while on the Daily we’re starting to peek above the upper trendline.
However, I won’t consider this a legitimate breakout until we reclaim the 50EMA at $220.59 & 20EMA at $220.74, followed by a daily close above both!
The most bullish scenario would be reclaiming & closing above the 50SMA at $222.16, which would give me much more confidence that our recent bottom is in.
NOW FOR THE BEARISH SCENARIO!
As long as we continue rejecting these moving averages, or fall back below the 9EMA at $217.58, I’ll be watching for another retest of:
$215.79 — 100EMA
$214.40 — 100SMA
If we break & close below both, $210.26 comes right back into play!
And if you read my post over the weekend, you’ll remember that the bottom of our larger uptrend channel sits around $210.11 tomorrow.
That’s the lowest I’d ideally want to see us go, because losing that trendline would put the larger bullish structure at risk.
NOW HERE’S SOMETHING INTERESTING FROM THE OPTIONS FLOW!
I spent some time going through $NVDA’s recent activity on Unusual Whales, and the positioning is actually pretty mixed heading into FOMC.
The reported gamma flip sits around $218–$218.68, with an open-interest call wall at $220.
Funny enough, that’s almost exactly where our key moving averages are sitting!
So reclaiming $220–$222 becomes even more interesting, although that call wall could also act as resistance.
On the bearish side, there’s notable options positioning around $215, which lines up closely with our 100EMA/100SMA support zone.
I also found some significant institutional-sized downside activity, including roughly $17.4M in December 2028 $280 puts on October 26, with the following day’s open interest increasing by almost the exact number of contracts traded.
That’s strong evidence of newly established put positions, but given the expiration, I wouldn’t automatically interpret it as institutions betting on an immediate breakdown. It could just as easily be longer-term portfolio protection.
The biggest takeaway?
The flow isn’t overwhelmingly bullish or bearish. We’re seeing positioning on BOTH sides, which makes sense with FOMC tomorrow.
And remember, we have Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some aggressive moves in either direction!
For now, $217.58 is my immediate level to defend, $220.59–$222.16 is what I want bulls to reclaim, and $210.11 remains the major uptrend support I absolutely want to see hold!
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
$GOOGL — EARNINGS TOMORROW & THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING! 👀
We failed to close above $320.75, but more importantly, bulls managed to secure another close above $319.15, which remains my most important level to watch!
With earnings tomorrow, I’m expecting plenty of traps in BOTH directions.
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS FLOW!
According to Unusual Whales, Tuesday’s flow saw a significant shift toward bullish activity:
$175.9M in bullish premium
$128.7M in bearish premium
Approximately $44.1M in reported net bullish premium
That’s a roughly $71M bullish swing compared to Monday’s net bearish flow!
What really caught my attention was the January 15, 2027 $360 calls, which saw roughly $41M in total traded premium, with the majority of the activity occurring at the ask.
We saw repeated multimillion-dollar transactions between 3:14 PM & 3:57 PM ET, suggesting one or more large institutional orders being executed in pieces.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean every transaction was a fresh bullish position. Some could be rolls, spreads or existing positions being adjusted.
The next open-interest update will help us determine how much new positioning was actually created.
Still, that’s some pretty interesting flow heading into earnings!
SO WHAT AM I WATCHING?
The main goal is to continue defending our falling wedge/bull pennant support trend, even if we briefly lose $319.15.
As long as that trend holds, bulls still have a fighting chance heading into earnings.
And I mean, there’s nothing quite like heading into earnings down 21% from ATH while trading within a bullish reversal pattern! 😂
BULLISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If earnings are received positively & we gap higher, I’d genuinely be surprised if we don’t at least attempt to retest:
$330.81 (200EMA)
$341.23 (200SMA) — Higher-end target
BEARISH EARNINGS SCENARIO:
If investors don’t like the report, I’m watching:
$313.83
$306/$305
And depending on how FOMC plays out & how the broader market reacts, the downside could extend even further.
For now, $319.15 & our support trend are EVERYTHING!
The flow is encouraging, the technical setup is interesting, but earnings will ultimately determine whether bulls can turn this into a meaningful breakout or whether we have another leg down ahead of us!
QUICK UPDATE ON $GOOGL, $NVDA & $SPY!
$GOOGL
We’re finally trading back above $319.15 & even secured a 2HR close above it!
As long as bulls continue defending this level, my upside targets remain:
$326.39 → $327.75 → $329.87
Reclaiming those levels would open the door toward $331.05 (200EMA) & $331.75 (Monthly 9EMA).
$NVDA
On Monday, bulls didn’t even need to retest the bottom of our uptrend before reclaiming & closing above both the Daily 100SMA/EMA!
Even better, today’s low was right at the 100EMA, which is exactly the kind of support we want to see as we build the case for October 23rd being the bottom.
Now, if bulls can defend $218.01, we could confirm a falling wedge breakout with upside targets at:
$219.48 → $220.92 (Daily 50EMA) → $221.63 (Daily 20EMA)
Holding above these moving averages would further strengthen the bullish case.
$SPY
Yesterday, bulls bottomed EXACTLY at my $761.83 level & managed to close above the Weekly 9EMA!
Now you guys see why I kept emphasizing that close 😂
Today’s low was right at the Weekly 9EMA ($765.22) & we’ve already reached $770.40!
That means we’ve pushed through the moving averages I was watching:
$765.83 (Daily 50EMA)
$767.52 (Daily 9EMA)
$767.81 (Daily 50SMA)
$768.83 (Daily 20EMA)
$770.15 (Daily 20SMA)
What I want now is a daily close above these MAs, ideally above $770.15, to keep bullish momentum going.
But there’s one level I REALLY want everyone watching if we continue higher:
$772.86!
If we reach that level & get rejected, followed by a close back below some of these moving averages, it could be an early warning that we’re setting up for one more breakdown toward $761.83.
Especially with FOMC & major earnings coming up, I’m not ruling out another shakeout.
For now, bulls are doing exactly what we wanted. The next step is proving they can HOLD these reclaimed levels!
$TSLA — WE HAVE OFFICIALLY BROKEN ABOVE THE 200EMA/SMA!
My October 15th analysis played out almost perfectly!
Bulls defended my $355/$354 support zone, holding the right shoulder of the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern I’ve been discussing.
The biggest confirmation I wanted was a breakout above the 200EMA/SMA, and yesterday we finally got it!
Not only that, but we’ve already tested & broken above my $400 target!
SO WHAT’S NEXT?
The most important level right now is $408.45 (today’s high).
We’ve reached the monthly resistance trendline that’s been holding bulls back since December 2025.
If bulls can break above & hold $408/$409, my next upside targets are:
$412.80
$420/$421 — Main target
BUT HERE’S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING!
If we continue rejecting $408/$409, we could be looking at a short-term top & a potential pullback.
My first downside levels to watch are:
$398.10
$393.80
If bulls retest these levels & defend them, that would be an extremely bullish development in my eyes!
It would suggest buyers are stepping in at higher levels, potentially setting us up for another attempt to break $408/$409 & push toward $420/$421.
WHAT IF WE BREAK BELOW $398/$393?
That’s where I’d start watching for a deeper pullback toward:
$385.94 (200EMA)
$377.57 (200SMA)
$375.39
$374.33
And here’s the thing: I wouldn’t automatically consider that bearish!
After a move like this, a pullback toward these moving averages could be perfectly healthy, especially if bulls defend them & establish a higher low.
That could set up another attempt to push toward $420/$421 AT LEAST!
For now, $408/$409 is EVERYTHING!
Break above & hold it, and bulls have a path toward $412.80 followed by $420/$421.
Reject it & I’ll be watching how buyers respond at $398.10/$393.80 before considering those deeper support levels.
The inverse H&S breakout has already delivered. Now it’s all about whether bulls can sustain the momentum!
$TSLA
LADIES & GENTLEMEN, WE’RE RIGHT BACK WHERE WE’VE BEEN SINCE JUNE 😂
Bulls continue attempting to reclaim the 200 EMA, only to either get REJECTED or fail to defend it once they’re above!
But here’s where things get INTERESTING!
Back on October 7th, I mentioned that $TSLA could be forming an INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS on BOTH the daily & weekly charts!
The daily is the smaller setup, while the weekly looks much more promising overall.
My downside targets for the daily right shoulder were $355.54–$354.05.
And where did we bottom today?
$355.23! 🎯
Not only did we defend that zone BEAUTIFULLY, but we also defended the 50 SMA at $358.76!
And funny enough, that same moving average is where we last bottomed on September 30th before rallying toward $388!
NOW HERE’S THE PLAN!
As long as Bulls continue defending $355.54–$354.05 and preferably the 50 SMA at $358.76, there’s a possibility that we’re finally forming the bottom needed for another attempt toward $400!
BUT before we get too excited about $400, we have TWO major obstacles:
200 EMA: $377.49
200 SMA: $388.49
We’ve struggled to reclaim & HOLD these moving averages since June, so breaking above both & successfully turning them into support would be a HUGE development for Bulls!
NOW LET’S TALK ABOUT TOMORROW!
The main priority is securing a WEEKLY CLOSE above the daily 50 SMA at $358.76!
The MOST BULLISH scenario would be a weekly close above the weekly 9 SMA at $364.80, potentially setting us up for another push higher next week!
AND THERE’S MORE!
$TSLA has been trading within a MASSIVE FALLING WEDGE for over 10 MONTHS!
Combine that with the potential daily & weekly inverse H&S patterns, and we have TWO technically bullish setups developing simultaneously!
Oh, and did I mention EARNINGS ARE ONLY 14 DAYS AWAY?
Now let’s cover the Bearish scenario
If Bulls fail to defend $355.54–$354.05 & close below the 50 SMA, I would start looking toward the WEEKLY inverse H&S setup for a potentially deeper right-shoulder formation.
My next downside targets would be:
$347.17 → $344.92 → $342.11
That doesn’t automatically invalidate the larger bullish setup, but it would suggest the daily pattern needs more time or has failed to hold its expected support.
SO HERE’S THE BIG PICTURE!
We have a potential daily inverse H&S forming near support, a larger weekly inverse H&S developing, a 10+ month falling wedge & earnings approaching!
BUT NONE OF THESE PATTERNS ARE CONFIRMED YET!
$355.54–$354.05 IS MY LINE IN THE SAND!
I just saw the Dune: Part Three trailer & all I can say is that there are people who go to work every day knowing they’re among the best at what they do, but eventually grow comfortable with that.
Then there are those who refuse to become complacent. No matter how great they already are, they keep challenging themselves, pushing boundaries & finding new ways to elevate their craft.
Denis Villeneuve is one of those rare individuals who refuses to settle for greatness when he knows he can push it even further.
That man is something else.