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Mark Carney has quietly rebuilt how Canada's government actually works, and sidelined almost everyone who used to run it. A Toronto Star investigation finds cabinet, Parliament, the civil service and the press have all been pushed to the margins in favour of a small circle around the prime minister. 🧵👇 (1/8)

I love stockpiles of HG ore !!!

$ATY.v is a big beneficiary of higher copper prices. Copper sales in Q1 were realized at an average price of USD 5.58/lb. Today, the copper price is a dollar higher (USD 6.59/lb). Based on this higher price and assuming annual copper sales from El Roble of 11M pounds, Atico's pre-tax cash flow increases by USD 11M per year = CAD 15.2M, all else equal. That's almost one third of the company's current mcap. After tax, a one dollar increase in copper prices lifts FCF by an amount that constitutes appr. 20% of Atico's mcap, assuming a copper production of 11M pounds per year. Atico currently operates only one producing asset (El Roble). The second and larger asset (La Plata), which is also a gold/copper project, will be advanced to a construction decision in Q3 2026 and start production in 2028. Atico's current mcap implies almost no value for La Plata. This should change as soon as project financing is secured (the big catalyst!) and construction of the mine starts.

Atico Mining ($ATY.v) released Q1 results: - USD 9.87M cash flow from ops before WC movements = USD 39.5M annualized - USD 8.25M adj. cash flow from ops before WC movements = USD 33M annualized - USD 6.25M adj. FCF after capex and financing activities = USD 25M annualized - EV/adj. CFO: 1.5x (fully diluted) - EV/adj. FCF: 1.9x (fully diluted) The aforementioned adj. numbers include tax costs based on present earnings instead of deferred taxes). Based on these numbers Atico looks very cheap. The company currently operates only 1 mine (El Roble in Columbia). Remaining mine life based on existing MRE is very short. However, post-MRE drill results have shown higher grades than MRE in mineralization zones that are open at depth and along strike. This, in connection with ongoing exploration activities, should allow a multi-year mine life extension. Atico’s second asset (La Plata in Ecuador) is a development-stage polymetallic project. All major permits have been obtained. The construction permit is still pending and a construction decision is expected in H2 2026. Project financing still has to be secured (USD 91M acc. to FS). At 4.5k gold, 5.90 copper and 70 silver, La Plata alone will generate an annual FCF that is 1.5x Atico’s current EV. The balance sheet is still a little stressed with a working capital deficit, but this will improve in the next quarters due to positive cash flows from El Roble. The biggest hurdle is securing project financing for La Plata. If/when this is achieved, Atico should fly. Not without risk.

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The team have tapped into something special and we are only getting started!!!

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@Henrik115 will have his own opinion on $ATY.v, but since I have done some work on the company, I'd like to point out the following with regard to Atico: At 5,000 gold, 6 copper and 80 silver, $ATY.v's after-tax FCF looks like this: 1. El Roble (9koz Au, 10M lbs Cu, 40koz Ag per year): 108M revenue - 63M all-in costs incl. royalties and mining taxes - 9M corporate G&A (cash part) and net interest cost - 12.6 M corporate income tax = 23.4M USD after tax FCF = 32M CAD 2. La Plata (9koz Au, 10M lbs, 220koz Ag, 13M lbs Zn): 176.6M revenue - 50M all-in costs incl. royalties and mining taxes - 31.7 M corporate income tax = 94.9M USD after tax FCF = 130M CAD 3. Total after-tax FCF: 162M CAD. Fully diluted mcap: 73M CAD. Result: Annual after-tax FCF is 2.2 times fully diluted mcap. Important to point out that this is after-tax FCF at the aforementioned metal prices. $ATY.v's after-tax FCF yield (FCF : mcap) at these prices will be higher than $ORV.to's FCF yield. That said, Orvana is further ahead with in the production curve. Atico's La Plata project has obtained all major permits, but FID and financing are still outstanding. La Plata won't come online before 2028.

$ATY.v received the environmental permit for its La Plata project. This is an important milestone. All major permits are now in place. Only a few auxiliary permits are still necessary. Construction decision is scheduled for Q2/Q3 2026. When La Plata starts production, $ATY.v will have one of the highest cash flow yields in the entire precious metals sector. At 5k gold, 5 copper and 80 silver, the annual AISC margin will far exceed 100% of the company’s fully diluted mcap even under very conservative cost assumptions. If $ATY.v can avoid larger cost increases until La Plata is up and running, the AISC margin has the potential to reach 200% of fully diluted mcap in the aforementioned Au/Cu/Ag price environment.

$ATY.v received the environmental permit for its La Plata project. This is an important milestone. All major permits are now in place. Only a few auxiliary permits are still necessary. Construction decision is scheduled for Q2/Q3 2026. When La Plata starts production, $ATY.v will have one of the highest cash flow yields in the entire precious metals sector. At 5k gold, 5 copper and 80 silver, the annual AISC margin will far exceed 100% of the company’s fully diluted mcap even under very conservative cost assumptions. If $ATY.v can avoid larger cost increases until La Plata is up and running, the AISC margin has the potential to reach 200% of fully diluted mcap in the aforementioned Au/Cu/Ag price environment.

$ATY.v released Q4 production numbers and 2026 guidance. Things are moving in the right direction with Q4 copper production increasing q/q and a further increase expected in 2026. Higher copper production in 2026 will reduce unit costs (AISC). A further decrease in AISC will come from a y/y rise in gold prices as AISC is calculated on a by-product basis, i.e. net of gold credits. What cash flows can we expect this year? Some numbers: At $4,800 gold and $5 copper and assuming an AISC level of $2 per pound of copper (net of by-products), the AISC margin in 2026 will be USD 36M = CAD 50M based on a copper production of 12M pounds (mid-point of guidance). That's 70% of $ATY.v's fully diluted mcap, solely coming from El Roble. FCF after deducting corporate G&A, finance costs and taxes should land around USD 20M = CAD 28M. That translates into a P/FCF multiple of only 1.8x (basic) and 2.5x (fully diluted). Atico's La Plata project will lead to further growth. A construction decision is scheduled for Q2/Q3 this year. La Plata will generate higher cash flows than El Roble due to its lower cost structure and higher gold production. El Roble will probably start producing in 2028, provided there are no delays. Note: El Roble has a remaining mine life of only 2.5 years acc. to the last technical report. However, I expect that $ATY.v will be able to extend the resource base and, consequently, the mine life via further drilling.