Denis Oevermann

November House View excerpt from the Market Barometer, exclusively provided by @BitcoinSuisseAG October was one of the more volatile months of the year across asset classes. BTC initially surged to a new all-time high of $126K before macro shocks and largescale deleveraging triggered a steep mid-month correction. The announcement of 100% US–China tariffs on October 10 sparked a broad risk-off move, causing more than $19B in liquidations across CEXs as automated deleveraging (ADL) cascades drained liquidity. After rising +11% early in the month, BTC closed October down -4%, as excess leverage and speculative positioning were flushed out. Despite the shakeout, the broader market structure remains intact as long as BTC holds above the 100K threshold. Below $100K, no structural support exists until $75K. The Federal Reserve’s announcement of the formal end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) effective December 1 marks the first shift toward renewed net liquidity expansion since early 2022. The decision follows signs of tightening financial and banking liquidity conditions, evident in SOFR spikes, increased Standing Repo Facility usage, and TGA fluctuations. October’s 25 bps rate cut brought the policy rates to 3.75–4%, with markets pricing a third rate cut in 2025 with a year-end target rate of 3.50–3.75%. Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown since October, has delayed key data releases (NFP, CPI, PCE, PPI), leaving markets “flying blind.” Proxy indicators such as Truflation edged higher to 2.6 percent, while ISM PMI slipped to 48.7 (49.5 expected), indicating softening business activity. Yet Goldman Sachs continues to forecast healthy growth with +3.6% in 2025Q3 and +3.1% in 2026Q1. Traditional markets remain resilient, with all major US indices (DJI, SPX, NDQ, RTY) reaching record highs into October-end and gold touching $4’380 before consolidating below $4K. As fear returned, BTC dominance climbed back above 60% as capital rotated defensively following the deleveraging event. ETH lost its $3.9–$4.1K support and is stabilizing near $3.5K. ETH’s next support lies at $2.5K. We see altcoins to remain under pressure and to likely underperform BTC until confidence and liquidity recover into December. Institutional October inflows, however, remain supportive, with +$5B into BTC, +$1.1B into ETH, and +$382M into SOL, reflecting sustained demand despite volatility. October saw roughly 400K BTC (1.94% of total supply) moved from LTHs, signaling meaningful redistribution amidst ETF accumulation. With QT to end in December and liquidity expansion resuming, our medium-term outlook remains constructive. Yet, near-term volatility may persist as sentiment must be rebuilt, despite positioning having normalized. Overall macro conditions are improving, and institutional demand remains firm. Thus, as long as Bitcoin holds $100K support, the setup favors a renewed uptrend into year-end and early 2026 in our view.

It has been a great pleasure having shared the panel on behalf of @BitcoinSuisseAG, jointly with our colleagues from @ValourFunds and @STOXX. We were definitely having a good time, as the pictures tell. A big Thank You again to the organizers, and looking forward to the next one.