railkat4

VERIZON'S CEO SAID STARLINK MOBILE WOULD COST $500 BILLION. THAT IS MORE THAN HIS ENTIRE COMPANY. 📞💀 Verizon CEO Dan Schulman got on the Q3 earnings call and told Wall Street that SpaceX would need four to six years and $300 billion to $500 billion to build a real US carrier network. Later in the same call, he stretched it to half a trillion over seven or eight years. He said it like it was a threat. Sir. Let me introduce you to a stock screener. 📉 Verizon market cap: about $185 billion 📉 T-Mobile: about $170 billion 📉 AT&T: about $145 billion Add it up. $500 billion. That is the ENTIRE American wireless industry. All three of them. Every tower, every mall kiosk, every bill with fourteen line items and an "administrative charge" nobody at the company can explain. This man stood up on an earnings call and announced that building a carrier from scratch costs exactly what it costs to buy every carrier that already exists. He thinks he described a moat. What he did was hang a FOR SALE sign on his whole industry and read the price out loud. And the part that should have ended the call early: his LOW number is bigger than his own company. $300 billion to build one. $185 billion to buy his. Take Verizon out at a premium, swallow all $166 billion of its debt, and you are around $350 billion all in. Still inside the range he quoted. Except instead of a slide about 65,000 towers you have to go pour concrete for, you get: 📶 94.5 million postpaid phone lines already paying every month 💰 $18 billion of free cash flow in nine months 📡 A national spectrum portfolio 🌐 The old UUNET backbone, which Verizon has owned since it swallowed MCI in 2006, one of the original pipes the internet runs on Then you dump the rest. The retail leases. The copper. The set-top boxes. The 6,000 person customer experience transformation department. The billing system that charges you a fee to pay your bill. Spin it, sell it, let it drift out to sea. Keep the fiber and the backbone, bolt it to a direct-to-cell constellation, and you stop being a phone company. You become the internet with a free cell network attached. Net cost after the spinoffs is probably less than the $44 billion somebody once paid for Twitter. 🐦 And SpaceX already wrote a $17 billion check for EchoStar's spectrum in September. That is not a theory. That is a man with a cart. Musk's reply to the four-to-six-year lecture was shorter than the lecture: it will take 2 or 3 years. My favorite moment is Schulman insisting Starlink would be "the sixth, not the fourth" competitor in the US, and that there is "no magic wand" for building a network. Buddy, that is not a moat. That is a man who has never personally watched someone land a rocket on a boat. Worth noting: Verizon got removed from the Dow Jones in June and replaced by Alphabet. The index that carried General Electric for 110 years looked at Verizon and said, "No thank you." So here is my read, and I sell technology for a living, so I have seen this movie: That was not a defense. That was a pitch deck. The new CEO, in the chair since October, came over from PayPal and needs a story for the board. Nothing says "I have a plan" like telling the market that your biggest competitor would have to outspend your entire valuation to beat you. Nothing says "please, make me an offer and let me retire" quite as loudly, either. Legacy telcos are a bond with a logo. They have managed decline for so long they mistake it for strategy. One of them is getting bought, stripped and bolted to a satellite constellation, and the CEO who publicly priced the alternative at half a trillion dollars just volunteered. Dan, blink twice if you want out. 🦋