He/Him. Love video games, and writing about them: Dota 2, Underlords, design, esports. Head of @DotaDiesel project, contributor at @liquiddota. Opinions my own.
Philadelphia, PA
Joined July 2020
- Tweets515
- Following111
- Followers65
- Likes397
Falcons just barely the new favorite for #TI2025 after Spirit drops their second series today and both top Chinese surge ahead of the reigning champs, Team Liquid. Crazy first day!
TI14 1st place chance, Swiss Day 1:
@TeamFalconsGG: 23.53% (-0.18)
@TSpirit_Dota2: 23.08% (-4.72)
@parivisiongg: 12.24% (+4.91)
@xtremegamingcn: 10.26% (+5.78)
@TeamTidebound: 9.94% (+3.99)
(1/3)
139
Maybe the biggest group stage outset -> playoffs outset bump I've seen, Parivision really showing up at DreamLeague S25.
DreamLeague Season 25 win chance, playoffs outset:
@TundraEsports: 46.10% (+8.19)
@parivisiongg: 42.78% (+34.81)
@TSpirit_Dota2: 8.96% (-3.81)
Chimera Esports: 2.16% (-0.11)
155
Day 2 of @DotaDiesel being stuck in the API sin bin for the UNFORGIVABLE crime of trying to send out 3 tweets per minute for 6 minutes. Too much on such a fragile infrastructure 😢
88
Seems that I've blown out the free daily allotment of tweeting via the API for @DotaDiesel. Back to manual posting. Weird that The Other Site didn't have any problem with the volume...
1
76
DoctorHeckle retweeted
The Diesel Report: DreamLeague Season 24
link.medium.com/ToPaLHy9sOb
Since I've been tracking group stage projections, it's hard for me to think of a performance that smashed projections like Team Waska. They didn't get swept once, taking games off of teams like Falcons and Tundra. Probably my team to watch for the second groups at DreamLeague!
DreamLeague S24, Group B outcomes:
@TeamFalconsGG: 12 wins (+2.39)
@TundraEsports: 10 wins (+1.14)
Team Waska: 10 wins (+4.23)
@Team__Spirit: 9 wins (+1.60)
@TALON_ESPORTS: 6 wins (-0.14)
@AzureRayDota: 5 wins (-0.60)
@heroicgg: 3 wins (-5.46)
Palianytsia: 1 win (-3.15)
1
72
The Living History of Underlords twitch.tv/doctorheckle
2
65
This is about as close as it gets for a grand finals, and after that LB finals? I'm AMPED for this. #TI13
(MATCH)
TI13 finals: @GaiminGladiator vs. @TeamLiquid
Gladiators win: 47.78%
Team Liquid win: 52.22%
3-0: 14.73% :: 16.81%
3-1: 17.76% :: 19.39%
3-2: 15.29% :: 16.02%
68
Team Zero is my team to watch this #TI13. Lowest rated team by @DotaDiesel going into groups and then utterly pops off, over performing their initial projection from maaaaybe two wins to a group lead tying FOUR. Crazy stuff
#TI13 Group C & D outcomes:
@TeamFalconsGG: 4 wins (-0.12)
Team Zero: 4 wins (+2.26)
@BetBoomTeam: 2 wins (-1.22)
@nounsesports: 2 wins (-0.93)
------
@Team__Spirit: 6 wins (+2.18)
@TeamLiquid: 4 wins (+0.53)
@AuroraDota2_GG: 2 wins (-0.81)
@beastcoast: 0 wins (-1.89)
55
Pound for pound maybe the most even, high-rated pair of teams in a finals outside of TI? I'll have to check the records but this BO5 is going to be nuts.
(MATCH)
Fissure Universe E3 finals: @Team__Spirit vs. @TeamFalconsGG
Team Spirit win: 50.28%
Team Falcons win: 49.72%
3-0: 15.93% :: 15.69%
3-1: 18.67% :: 18.49%
3-2: 15.67% :: 15.55%
41
Pretty much as dead even as a finals day can be for these three teams, all RIGHT before TI. Gonna be a huge day for great dotes!
Fissure Universe E3 win chance, pre-finals day:
@Team__Spirit: 48.86% (+29.54)
@TeamFalconsGG: 26.82% (+4.82)
@TundraEsports: 24.32% (-6.47)
33
Loved the experience but man, solo casting Dota for 6 hours was exhausting. Thinking about old @DakotaCox and @Bkop92 night casts and can't help but feel a newfound respect.
2
72
Razor thin advantage for @1winesports in the EEU TI13 qualifier finals, bound to be a killer set!
(MATCH)
TI13 Qualifier finals: @9pandasgg vs. @1winesports
9 Pandas win: 48.22%
1win win: 51.78%
3-0: 14.96% :: 16.63%
3-1: 17.87% :: 19.19%
3-2: 15.40% :: 15.95%
1
99
Audio issues aside, DAMN it felt good to be casting again. Did you know @DotaUnderlords shares a world with another Valve game, @DOTA2?
Had a blast casting the opening week of the Midwest Dota 2 League in person with little bro.
3
83
From a ~2% chance to win PGL Wallachia from the outset to champs, @Team__Spirit looking scary good.
PGL Wallachia 2024 1st place chance, outset (cont.):
@heroicgg: 2.32%
@Team__Spirit: 2.13%
@teamsecret: 1.39%
@virtuspro: 1.12%
@NounsEsports: 0.95%
@ShopifyRebels: 0.95%
@boomesportsid: 0.80%
@mousesports: 0.45%
(2/2)
63
well, ~8% sure ain't 0%.
(MATCH)
Elite League 2024: @OGesports vs. @TeamFalconsGG
OG sweep: 7.88%
Team Falcons sweep: 53.66%
Split series: 38.45%
1
46
One of the best group stage win projections to date: got OG's (and practically XG's) wins dead on, with 2 other teams under +/- 1 win of their projection.
Then there's BB's/Shopify's slight over/under performance, Falcon's dominance, and Aurora's bottom out. Great group stage!
DL Season 22, Group 2 outcomes:
@TeamFalconsGG: 7 wins (+2.54)
@BetBoomTeam: 5 wins (+0.95)
@xtremegamingcn: 4 wins (+0.01)
@Team__Spirit: 4 wins (+0.12)
@GaiminGladiator: 3 wins (-0.22)
@OGesports: 3 wins ✅
@ShopifyRebels: 2 wins (-1.23)
@AuroraDota2_GG: No wins (-2.17)
2
76
Guess it's finally time to write a Swiss group simulator module, sick.
FISSURE and ESB announce an online Dota 2 league with a $1000000 prize pool!
Open qualifications are just around the corner!
Register: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
49
The top of the pack keeps getting more likely as we near the halfway point, barring a big collapse BB Team and Falcons are cooking this event.
DL S22 1st place chance, G2 day 3:
@TeamFalconsGG: 42.01% (+7.38)
@BetBoomTeam: 31.65% (+6.40)
@ShopifyRebels: 8.07% (-5.86)
@Team__Spirit: 4.78% (-4.45)
@xtremegamingcn: 4.53% (-6.48)
@GaiminGladiator: 4.41% (+1.61)
@OGesports: 4.29% (+2.01)
@AuroraDota2_GG: 0.25% (-0.62)
59