D o u g 👣 D u f f i e l d

Jim Cramer is effectively melting down on CNBC. this is when you buy.

I asked Grok what it thinks 2030 will look like. It made this amazing video.

Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO. Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

BREAKING🚨 Anthropic files IPO under ticker $ANT after claiming Ai can end all of humanity. Anthropic valuation: $1.5 trillion Walmart valuation: $960 Billion Anthropic revenue: $16.3 billion Walmart revenue: $365 billion

Holy shit...this clip is unreal. Nithya Raman has absolutely NO clue about how housing works in LA. Oppenheim explains to her that landlords are losing money over the last decade and she's got ZERO idea what he's saying. This lady was chair of the Homelessness and Housing Committee for years and she's genuinely hearing this for the first time in her life. Unreal that this low IQ buffoon is about to be the Mayor. WTF are we doing.

Grok explains how we could get to billions of humanoid robots by the 2030s.

Solo creators with under 100K followers are pulling $1M+ a year off ai ad revenue alone. @thesamparr

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”