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Short-term: trend > value > fundamentals
Long-term: fundamentals > value > trend
Investors need to be aligned with process AND time horizon
Jake retweeted
Download the NBA Almanac. The essential guide to the NBA season.
Every player. Every team. Every stat you need to know for the new season.
OUT NOW FREE DOWNLOAD - nbaalmanac.gumroad.com/l/NBAâŠ
Jake retweeted
POLITCAL AD
GAMBLING AD
POLITICAL AD
GAMBLING AD
PLEASE USE AI WE'VE INVESTED TOO MUCH MONEY AD
POLITICAL AD
AI AD
GAMBLING AD
Jesus fucking CHRIST.
Brazil going to be interesting to watch (I have zero exposure) as the circuit breaker has potential room as ~11% of this move is currency which doesnât feed into it
MANUAL DO CIRCUIT BREAKER
Para o Ibovespa Ă vista:
đ Caiu 10%? Tudo para por 30 minutos.
đ Reabriu e chegou a 15%? Para de novo, agora por 1 hora.
đ Bateu 20%? A B3 decide quanto tempo fica parado.
A volta acontece por leilĂŁo. Ele nĂŁo pode ser acionado nos Ășltimos 30 minutos do pregĂŁo. E se a parada acontecer na Ășltima hora, o pregĂŁo Ă© estendido pra garantir pelo menos meia hora de negociação depois da reabertura.
A trava sĂł funciona pra baixo.
Para os contratos futuros, tĂȘm outra regra: eles tĂȘm limites de oscilação prĂłprios, calculados sobre o preço de ajuste do dia anterior.
âąâ â Ăndice Bovespa futuro: ±10%
âąâ â DĂłlar futuro: ±6%
âąâ â S&P 500 futuro: ±7%
âąâ â Ouro: ±8%
âąâ â Bitcoin: ±35%
âąâ â Futuro de PETR4: ±24,5%
Mas aqui eles não param de ser negociados, o preço simplesmente não pode passar daquele teto ou piso. Os negócios continuam, se tiver alguém do outro lado (ou seja: bateu o limite de baixa e ninguém quer comprar, ele fica parado naquele preço).
Jake retweeted
Heat giving up their future while still seemingly FAR away from being a contender so their 81 year old President can watch a superstar in his final years?
I donât see how this Heat team post-trade stripping is much better than the Bucks would have been
Jake retweeted
The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading:
"A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services."
Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next.
The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. Itâs pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it wonât be pretty.
Jake retweeted
âNvidia and Micron account for 34% of that growthâŠAnd only 10 companiesâincluding Broadcom and Meta Platformsâaccount for roughly two-thirds of the profit growth.â
wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-eâŠ
And of course NFL gamesâŠ
dailyboxstats.com/?sport=nflâŠ
@dailyboxstats
Jake retweeted
An absolute banger for the future AI bubble coffee table book.
IN BOLD:
"Our portfolio is well positioned to compound at 40% to 50% or higher over the next several years"
The đ chart needs distributions added⊠but still not great (~5% annualized since inception).
But the last decade hasnât been great for Icanhâs CNBC nemesis eitherâŠ
Dailyboxstats.com has college football too
dailyboxstats.com/
I got tired of digging through websites to see how players did each day, so I spent 45 minutes and built a box score site.
dailyboxstats.com
Full daily leaders & full box scores for the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and European soccer.
Front page summary⊠click through pages behind it.
Just saw an ad during the World Series from Meta saying AI doomers should be ignored and that they are âbetting on peopleâ
OkâŠ
Meta now has fewer employees than it did 5 years ago.
With more than 2x the revenue base.
$META
Value investors (who throughout history relied on markets being inefficient) complaining that market structure has made markets... inefficient... is what makes them dinosaurs.
Quit complaining and revise your process to take advantage of what is likely even more inefficient than it was historically.
David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur"
âThe market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak."
"It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that."
"And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it Iâll make the S&P plus 30."
"Now as weâve moved to passive theyâve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they donât have new money coming in to make new investments in any case."
"But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think itâs cool or they think itâs going up."
"And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think itâs worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value."
"So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. Weâre one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.â
Buckle up...
It is reported by @PabloTorre today that the huge $8.35B Dodgers TV deal was negotiated directly by Walter (owner of the regional media company, American Media Productions)⊠to Walter (owner of the Dodgers), reportedly before he acquired the Dodgers and seemingly contingent on him doing so. This let Walter bid ~$700M above the next-highest offer, despite it being reported at the time that he had no secured media deal in hand.
Time Warner Cable was the counterparty that agreed to pay AMP $8.35B over 25 years for the rights to distribute SportsNet LA, a deal that backed the whole structure. It was brokered by David Rone, then President of Time Warner Cable Networks. Industry experts questioned the logic of that inflated price for years, it drove the local blackouts, and it became a real risk on Time Warner's books ahead of its eventual sale to Charter Communications. Rone was later hired by... Walter into Guggenheim as a managing partner, a role he still holds today.
The deal required such high fees to be charged to local cable that roughly 70% of Dodgers fans were blacked out for years because providers wouldn't pay it. Then in 2015, Walter sold Magic Johnson a controlling stake in an insurance company (EquiTrust), reportedly as repayment for Johnson's help winning the 2012 Dodgers bid... an insurance company that then helped fund the payments to the Dodgers through a loan under the deal Walter negotiated with himself.
Good morning. youtu.be/YBvdMVY7LW4?si=DPpyâŠ
Oh Magic... xitter.cf/junkbondinvest/status/âŠ
So let me get this straight. Walters' own insurance companies stopped lending to his other businesses once they got subpoenaed back in Feb
In just weeks, insurers owned by Amistad, a holdco where Magic is a board member, lent ~$2.3bn to Walter companies/intermediaries (BBG)
Amistad isnât technically a Walter affiliate. But they share his office address, his firm (Guggenheim) manages its insurersâ money, and his brother-in-law runs one of them.
Kind of related, right?
If @chamath says it's money good... it's money good
Way way way too early 2026/27 mood
East
1) Celtics
2) Knicks
3) Pistons
4) Pacers
5) Hawks
6) Cavs
7) Heat
8) Raptors
9) Hornets
10) Magic
West
1) Thunder
2) Spurs
3) Nuggets
4) Wolves
5) Lakers
6) Rockets
7) Blazers
8) Jazz
9) Clippers
10) Warriors
Current mood
Final regular season moodâŠ
East
1) Knicks
2) Pistons
3) Cavs
4) Pacers
5) Celtics
6) Raptors
7) Sixers
8) Magic
9) Hawks
10) Heat
West
1) Spurs
2) Thunder
3) Rockets
4) Lakers
5) Nuggets
6) Wolves
7) Blazers
8) Jazz
9) Warriors
10) Mavs



































