An optimist who assumes everyone is full of shit or lazy. Smart because he forgets. Fuck everyone against sensible gun reform. đŸ‘šâ€đŸ‘©â€đŸ‘Šâ€đŸ‘ŠđŸ‘¶đŸ»đŸ¶đŸ”đŸșđŸ€âšŸïžđŸ“ŠđŸ€˜

East Bay via NY via PSU via NJ
Joined February 2009
Short-term: trend > value > fundamentals Long-term: fundamentals > value > trend Investors need to be aligned with process AND time horizon
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Download the NBA Almanac. The essential guide to the NBA season. Every player. Every team. Every stat you need to know for the new season. OUT NOW FREE DOWNLOAD - nbaalmanac.gumroad.com/l/NBA

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Jake retweeted
POLITCAL AD GAMBLING AD POLITICAL AD GAMBLING AD PLEASE USE AI WE'VE INVESTED TOO MUCH MONEY AD POLITICAL AD AI AD GAMBLING AD Jesus fucking CHRIST.
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Brazil going to be interesting to watch (I have zero exposure) as the circuit breaker has potential room as ~11% of this move is currency which doesn’t feed into it
MANUAL DO CIRCUIT BREAKER Para o Ibovespa Ă  vista: 📉 Caiu 10%? Tudo para por 30 minutos. 📉 Reabriu e chegou a 15%? Para de novo, agora por 1 hora. 📉 Bateu 20%? A B3 decide quanto tempo fica parado. A volta acontece por leilĂŁo. Ele nĂŁo pode ser acionado nos Ășltimos 30 minutos do pregĂŁo. E se a parada acontecer na Ășltima hora, o pregĂŁo Ă© estendido pra garantir pelo menos meia hora de negociação depois da reabertura. A trava sĂł funciona pra baixo. Para os contratos futuros, tĂȘm outra regra: eles tĂȘm limites de oscilação prĂłprios, calculados sobre o preço de ajuste do dia anterior. ‱⁠ ⁠Índice Bovespa futuro: ±10% ‱⁠ ⁠DĂłlar futuro: ±6% ‱⁠ ⁠S&P 500 futuro: ±7% ‱⁠ ⁠Ouro: ±8% ‱⁠ ⁠Bitcoin: ±35% ‱⁠ ⁠Futuro de PETR4: ±24,5% Mas aqui eles nĂŁo param de ser negociados, o preço simplesmente nĂŁo pode passar daquele teto ou piso. Os negĂłcios continuam, se tiver alguĂ©m do outro lado (ou seja: bateu o limite de baixa e ninguĂ©m quer comprar, ele fica parado naquele preço).
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Jake retweeted
Heat giving up their future while still seemingly FAR away from being a contender so their 81 year old President can watch a superstar in his final years? I don’t see how this Heat team post-trade stripping is much better than the Bucks would have been
BLOCKBUSTER: The Milwaukee Bucks are trading franchise icon Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to the Miami Heat for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, 3 first-round picks (including No. 13), 1 pick swap and 1 second-rounder, sources tell ESPN.
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The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading: "A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services." Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next. The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. It’s pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it won’t be pretty.
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Jake retweeted
“Nvidia and Micron account for 34% of that growth
And only 10 companies—including Broadcom and Meta Platforms—account for roughly two-thirds of the profit growth.” wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-e

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An absolute banger for the future AI bubble coffee table book. IN BOLD: "Our portfolio is well positioned to compound at 40% to 50% or higher over the next several years"
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The 👇 chart needs distributions added
 but still not great (~5% annualized since inception). But the last decade hasn’t been great for Icanh’s CNBC nemesis either

Icahn's legacy has been damaged. The irony is that he spent decades arguing that companies should unlock value for shareholders.
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Dailyboxstats.com has college football too dailyboxstats.com/
I got tired of digging through websites to see how players did each day, so I spent 45 minutes and built a box score site. dailyboxstats.com Full daily leaders & full box scores for the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and European soccer. Front page summary
 click through pages behind it.
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Pretty apt analogy for political beliefs within a party
Metronomes on a free-moving platform start out of sync, then lock together through the platform’s motion, spontaneous synchronization in action
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Amen Thompson blocks Wemby for the win!
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The plan: Instead of giving Knicks employees championship rings, use them as a lure to see who needs mandatory cybersecurity training
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Just saw an ad during the World Series from Meta saying AI doomers should be ignored and that they are “betting on people” Ok

Meta now has fewer employees than it did 5 years ago. With more than 2x the revenue base. $META
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Me
 when someone uses CAPE to show the market is overvalued
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Why does his hair look like it’s censored?
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Value investors (who throughout history relied on markets being inefficient) complaining that market structure has made markets... inefficient... is what makes them dinosaurs. Quit complaining and revise your process to take advantage of what is likely even more inefficient than it was historically.
David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur" “The market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak." "It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that." "And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it I’ll make the S&P plus 30." "Now as we’ve moved to passive they’ve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they don’t have new money coming in to make new investments in any case." "But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think it’s cool or they think it’s going up." "And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value." "So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.”
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Buckle up... It is reported by @PabloTorre today that the huge $8.35B Dodgers TV deal was negotiated directly by Walter (owner of the regional media company, American Media Productions)
 to Walter (owner of the Dodgers), reportedly before he acquired the Dodgers and seemingly contingent on him doing so. This let Walter bid ~$700M above the next-highest offer, despite it being reported at the time that he had no secured media deal in hand. Time Warner Cable was the counterparty that agreed to pay AMP $8.35B over 25 years for the rights to distribute SportsNet LA, a deal that backed the whole structure. It was brokered by David Rone, then President of Time Warner Cable Networks. Industry experts questioned the logic of that inflated price for years, it drove the local blackouts, and it became a real risk on Time Warner's books ahead of its eventual sale to Charter Communications. Rone was later hired by... Walter into Guggenheim as a managing partner, a role he still holds today. The deal required such high fees to be charged to local cable that roughly 70% of Dodgers fans were blacked out for years because providers wouldn't pay it. Then in 2015, Walter sold Magic Johnson a controlling stake in an insurance company (EquiTrust), reportedly as repayment for Johnson's help winning the 2012 Dodgers bid... an insurance company that then helped fund the payments to the Dodgers through a loan under the deal Walter negotiated with himself.
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So let me get this straight. Walters' own insurance companies stopped lending to his other businesses once they got subpoenaed back in Feb In just weeks, insurers owned by Amistad, a holdco where Magic is a board member, lent ~$2.3bn to Walter companies/intermediaries (BBG) Amistad isn’t technically a Walter affiliate. But they share his office address, his firm (Guggenheim) manages its insurers’ money, and his brother-in-law runs one of them. Kind of related, right?
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If @chamath says it's money good... it's money good
This SpaceX paper is money good and better than most sovereign debt. Also means that everyone else except IG-grade hypers will price at 10-12% in 2027.
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Way way way too early 2026/27 mood East 1) Celtics 2) Knicks 3) Pistons 4) Pacers 5) Hawks 6) Cavs 7) Heat 8) Raptors 9) Hornets 10) Magic West 1) Thunder 2) Spurs 3) Nuggets 4) Wolves 5) Lakers 6) Rockets 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Clippers 10) Warriors
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Current mood Final regular season mood
 East 1) Knicks 2) Pistons 3) Cavs 4) Pacers 5) Celtics 6) Raptors 7) Sixers 8) Magic 9) Hawks 10) Heat West 1) Spurs 2) Thunder 3) Rockets 4) Lakers 5) Nuggets 6) Wolves 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Warriors 10) Mavs
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Early season mood
 East 1) Knicks 2) Pistons 3) Sixers 4) Cavs 5) Pacers 6) Raptors 7) Celtics 8) Magic 9) Hawks 10) Heat West 1) Thunder 2) Spurs 3) Rockets 4) Lakers 5) Wolves 6) Nuggets 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Clippers 10) Warriors
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