Edward ♧

I’ve been turning this news in my head. At first glance, AST deciding to build a 20-ton rocket sounds like a massive, capital-burning distraction, especially since we've always prided ourselves on being "launch-agnostic." But the more I think about it, the more I start to like it. After the New Glenn anomaly, SpaceX pausing Falcon 9 launches, and ULA and Ariane being booked out for years, it's quite obvious that there is a severe launch capacity scarcity out there. We need to be masters of our own destiny. If you're building a LEO constellation, your biggest existential bottleneck isn't just the phased array tech but also the launch capacity. Waiting on other providers' manifests means absorbing their delays and setbacks. As mentioned in the press release, they are not starting a rocket from scratch, by using Firefly’s flight-proven Miranda engines, they are skipping several years of core propulsion R&D. And making this a 3-stage rocket exclusively for AST satellites? When you only launch one highly specific, repetitive payload, you don't need to engineer for commercial rideshares or other companies payload. It should be a more straightforward, mission-specific bus. As a bonus, by not entering the commercial launch market, AST avoids becoming a direct competitor to any existing launch provider. Then there is the Midland spaceport news that just came out. Manufacturing the largest commercial arrays in LEO and having a launch site right next door in Texas... the logistics get incredibly lean. Build it, roll it out, launch it with your own rocket. And I don't think the naming is a coincidence. BlackLift was announced right on the heels of the government contracts (and I assume more will come, can't wait for the earnings results next monday). A dedicated, sovereign, secure pipeline to orbit for defense payloads, USG radar, and secure comms. This expands the TAM massively, and it's exactly the kind of sovereign capability the DoD loves to fund. Also, factor in the 136 BlueBirds for J-LEO (Japan), the 344 D-BlueBirds for Germany (EU), and the undisclosed amount for the US gov... we are talking about hundreds, if not thousands, of satellites. So, honestly? Maybe building our own rocket isn't such a bad idea after all. Now, I’m looking at their 2028 timeline and I'm not naive. It’s a mirage. In aerospace, timelines always slip (just look at every other existing rocket company in the world). If this thing is flying by 2030 or 2032, I’ll consider it already a success. But the realization I came to is: the timeline doesn't actually matter. The first 100 satellites are already funded. They will fly on existing rockets, securing global coverage and bringing in that massive cellular revenue long before BlackLift ever reaches a pad. As an investor, my only real red flag here is the funding mechanism. Rockets burn cash. If BlackLift is financed through USG grants, defense prepayments, and incoming telecom revenue, this is an absolute masterstroke. If it turns into a vehicle for endless equity dilution... well, that’s a different story. Execution is everything, and I like it much better when AST is shaping its own destiny. $ASTS