Project Manager @maristpoll. Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Occasional writing on Substack. Marist '30
San Diego, CA
Joined June 2023
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Ellis Bates retweeted
VoteHub partnered with @verasight_data to conduct a new Ohio poll, finding narrow Democratic leads in both the U.S. Senate and governor’s races. Both leads are within the margin of error.
Read our full analysis: zurl.co/ggRMi
In Iowa's Senate race, the candidate quality gap favors:
32%Ashley Hinson
68%Josh Turek
352 votes • 12 hours Ellis Bates retweeted
For Texas stuff
-@theoelections
-@_fat_ugly_rat_
-@DjsokeSpeaking
-@Birenbomb
-@scottbraddock
-@kaylaguo_
@gromerjeffers
Ellis Bates retweeted
Governor’s races are more split. The GOP is favored to win blue generic ballot states in NH, NV, and potentially GA, while Dems stand to do the opposite in AK and IA.
Ellis Bates retweeted
One potential reason that we are seeing this? LV Samples appear to be older than RV Samples, and whiter. In most of the Marist polls in the second wave, at least, we are seeing this trend.
TX (LV): 39% Under 45, 41% Non White
TX (RV): 41% Under 44, 44% Non White
Ellis Bates retweeted
Democratic Senate candidate quality could decide control this cycle.
Across all Senate and governor races, the parties roughly even out vs. the generic ballot. But in the competitive Senate races, Democrats are overperforming and favored in 10 of 14.
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz.
votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…
Ellis Bates retweeted
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz.
votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…
Ellis Bates retweeted
Averaged out, neither party has much of an advantage in their candidates’ expected over/underperformance relative to the generic ballot.
A small group of Democrats in close Senate races is the exception—and right now that’s putting them in the driver’s seat to flip the chamber.
Not sure why it took both parties so long to figure this out. I flagged Mississippi’s potential competitiveness back in March, and post-Callais Black turnout certainly hasn’t helped Republicans in the state.
SCOOP: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play axios.com/2026/10/21/mississ…
Ellis Bates retweeted
NYT poll is roughly implying, as movement from Trump 2024:
- 4-5 pts from differential turnout (it's a Harris +3 weighted recall in LV)
- 6 pts from persuasion
- 2 pts from new voters
Three high-quality polls released today by NYT/Siena, CNN/SSRS, and Strength in Numbers/Verasight all put Democrats up double digits on the generic ballot. Their edge is fueled by strong leads among independents and Hispanics, alongside Trump’s low approval.
Ellis Bates retweeted
Georgia's early vote has been more White this week, but the shift is tracking roughly in parallel with 2024. Republicans still aren't seeing the improvement relative to 2024 that they need.
Lots of recent talk about whether Rogers can make real inroads in Detroit. @maristpoll’s new survey finds Benson and El-Sayed running virtually even there. As always, crosstabs are crosstabs, so take it with a grain of salt.
El-Sayed is underperforming Benson by 5 in @maristpoll’s new likely-voter survey, with a +2 lead to her +6.
His deficit is largest among non-white voters and women, while both run similarly among men and independents.
Michigan Senate
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed 50% (+2)
🟥 Mike Rogers 48%
@maristpoll 10/15-18 | LV
Michigan Generic Ballot
🟦 Democrat 52% (+6)
🟥 Republican 46%
@maristpoll 10/15-18 | LV
Michigan Governor
🟦 Jocelyn Benson 51% (+6)
🟥 John James 45%
@maristpoll 10/15-18 | LV
