Started the Sunday Energy Tidbits research memo in 1998 & still love everything energy. Energy powers the world! Posts are for info only!
Calgary, Alberta
Joined August 2018
- Tweets25.2K
- Following78
- Followers16.4K
- Likes996
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Negative Chinese consumer indicator.
Chinese consumer for Geely domestic car sales collapsing with Oct -23.5% YoY and YTD Oct -23.3% YoY. Luckily, Geely exports in are rapidly accelerating with Oct +157.8% YoY and YTD Oct +167.9% YoY.
Reminder Geely specifies BEV & PHEV sales so have backed out the rest from the total sales to be Other (ie. assumed to be ICE).
Geely provides split of Oct car sales for domestic vs export. But does not provide the split of export sales by BEV vs PHEV vs Others. And have assumed all exports are BEV and PHEV.
Total car sales incl BEV, PHEV, ICE:
Oct +1.0% YoY to 310,183.
YD Oct +2.8% YoY to 2,545,664
Domestic car sales incl ICE.
Oct: -23.5% YoY to 203,030 & 65.%% share of total sales vs 86.5%.
YTD Oct: -23.3% YoY to 1640,841 & 64.5% share of total sales vs 86.4%.
Export car sales :
Oct: +157.8% YoY or +65,585 to 107,153 & 34.5% share of total vs 13.5%.
YTD Oct: +167.9% YoY or +567,127 to 904,23 & 35.5% share of total sales vs 13.6%.
Total BEV sales incl export:
Oct +43.1% YoY to 140,758 & 45.4% share vs 32.0%
YTD Oct +6.9% YoY to 953,383 & 37.5% share vs 36.0%.
Total PHEV sales incl export:
Oct -6.7% YoY to 74,238 & 23.9% share vs 25.9%.
YTD Oct +29.6% YoY to 587,977 & 23.1% share vs 18.3%.
See my 👇table.
#OOTT
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Negative Chinese consumer indicator.
Chinese domestic consumer BYD car sales are collapsing at Oct -11.3% YoY and YTD Oct -28.8% YoY. Luckily, BYD exports are rapidly accelerating at +102.8% in Oct and +93.9% in YTD Oct.
BYD does not provide split of NEV export sales by BEV vs PHEV.
Domestic car sales:
Oct: -11.3% YoY or -40,021 to 312,931 cars & 64.8% share of total sales vs 80.8%.
YTD Oct: -28.8% YoY or -827,227 to 2,047,515 cars & 57.5% of total sales vs 78.6%..
Export car sales:
Oct: +102.8% YoY or +86,290 to 170,194 cars & 35.2% share of total vs 19.2%.
YTD Oct: +93.9% YoY or +733,178 to 1,514,154 cars & 42.5% of total sales vs 21.4%.
Total Oct sales (incl export):
BEV: +37.4% YoY to 305,743 & 63.3% share vs 50.9%.
PHEV: -17.2% YoY to 177,382 & 36.7% share vs 49.1%.
Total YTD Oct sales (incl export):
BEV: +5.9% YoY to 1,935,700 & 54.3% share vs 50.0%.
PHEV: -11.0% YoY to 1,625,969 & 45.7% share vs 50.0%.
See my 👇table.
#OOTT
Did a Saudi Aramco tanker get hit? Or was it Kuwait or Iraq tanker?
#192, incident date Nov 1.
Tanker travelling southeast through the Arabian Gulf as been struck by 2 unknown projectiles on the port side. 72NM east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia. Implies it was a loaded tanker.
Khafji is a northern Saudi Arabia city on the Persian Gulf, close to Kuwait border. It is also the name of a Saudi Aramco oil field in the Saudi Arabia/Kuwait divided zone. 👇 @CarnegieEndow @bmalsaif map.
Thx @UK_MTO
#oott
Positive economic indicator from the Manufacturing PMI for China's smaller more export oriented manufacturers.
Oct was 52.0 vs est 52.0, which follows 52.1 in Sept, 51.5 in Aug, 50.9 in July, 51.7 in June, 51.8 in May, 52.2 in Apr, 50.8 in Mar, and 52.1 in Feb.
"Output expanded for the eleventh successive month, and at the sharpest rate since April, on the back of strong client demand and better production capacity, with growth broad based across all three monitored sub-sectors....New export orders rose for the fourth month in a row....."
Oct 52.0 vs est 52.0
Sept 52.1
Aug 51.5
July 50.9
June 51.7
May 51.8
Apr 52.2
Mar 50.8
Feb 52.1
Jan 50.3
Dec 50.1
Nov 49.9
Oct 50.6
Sep 51.2
Aug 50.5
July 49.5
June 50.4
May 48.3
Apr 50.4
Mar 51.2
Feb 50.8
Jan 50.1
My👇10/31 post on China "official" manufacturing PMI for Oct was back to contraction at 49.3.
Thx @SPGlobalPMI
#OOTT
Back to contraction.
China "official" manufacturing PMI for Oct was 49.3 vs est 49.9. Back to contraction after modest expansion of Sept 50.01. Two contractions of Aug 49.8 and July 49.2. After four months of modest expansion with June 50.3, May, 50.0, Apr 50.3 and Mar 50.4.
Oct 49.3 vs est 49.9
Sept 50.1
Aug 49.8
July 49.2
June 50.3
May 50.0
Apr 50.3
Mar 50.4
Feb 49.0
Jan 49.3
Dec 50.1
Nov 49.2
Oct 49.0
Sept 49.8
Aug 49.4
July 49.3
June 49.7
May 49.5
Apr 49.0
Mar 50.5
Feb 50.2
Jan 49.1
Dec 50.1
Nov 50.3
Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI for smaller, more export oriented companies is coming tomorrow night.
Thx @business #OOTT
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
The sources said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday. But Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out — a strategy Netanyahu is concerned about.
The Israeli source said the call was "tough," while the U.S. source described it as "direct."
NEW: Trump has frank call with Netanyahu about the U.S.-Iran negotiations and the next moves in the war. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/11/01/trump-n…
Brent is -$1.77 to $111.66 in tonight's trading to 7:50pm ET. On Friday, Brent was +$2.76 to $117.64 to close on 10/30.
WTI is -$1.82 to $102.30 in tonight's trading to 7:52pm ET. On Friday, WTI was +$2.12 to $104.12 to close on 10/30.
Thx @business #oott
Brent was +$2.76 to $117.64 to close on 10/30.
Closes:
10/30: $117.64
10/29: $114.88
10/28: $115.32
10/27: $113.88
10/26: $115.81
10/23: $116.72
10/22: $113.17
10/21: $108.82
10/20: $108.79
10/19: $109.55
10/16: $109.64
10/15: $105.92
10/14: $106.06
10/13: $105.69
10/12: $106.65
10/09: $104.72
10/08: $104.28
10/07: $100.20
10/06: $100.58
10/05: $100.32
10/02: $102.35
10/01: $102.31
09/30: $103.53
08/31: $90.49
07/31: $90.12
06/30: $72.92
05/29: $92.05
04/30: $114.01
03/31: $118.35
02/27: 72.48 before US attacked Iran.
WTI is was +$2.12 to $104.12 to close on 10/30.
Closes:
10/30: $104.12
10/29: $102.00
10/28: $102.78
10/27: $99.90
10/26: $101.76
10/23: $103.27
10/22: 99.47
10/21: $97.15
10/20: $101.79
10/19: $103.66
10/16: $101.41
10/15: $97.97
10/14:$95.09
10/13: $94.14
10/12: $93.74
10/09: $91.85
10/08: $91.49
10/07: $88.28
10/06: $89.44
10/05: $89.43
10/02: $91.11
10/01: $92.87
09/30: $90.42
08/31: $85.76
07/31: $84.67
06/30: $69.50
05/29: $87.36
04/30: $105.07
03/31: $101.38
02/27: $67.02 before US attacked Iran.
thx @business #oott
US 10-yr is u to 4.9413% in tonight's trading to 7:56pm ET. On Friday, US 10-yr was down to 4.9289% to close on 10/30.
US 2-yr is up to 4.5999% in tonight's trading to 7:58pm ET. On Friday, US 2-yr was down to 4.5876% to close on 10/30.
Thx @business #oott
Today, US 10-yr was down to 4.9289% to close on 10/30.
Closes:
10/30: 4.9289%
10/29: 4.9369%
10/28: 5.0175%
10/27: 4.9967%
10/26: 4.9884%
10/23: 4.9945%
10/22: 4.9530%
10/21: 5.1190%
10/20: 5.1085%
10/19: 5.1397%
10/16: 5.0728%
10/15: 5.0790%
10/14: 5.0580%
10/13: 5.2084%
10/12: Columbus Day holiday
10/09: 5.2378%
10/08: 5.2268%
10/07: 5.2837%
10/06: 5.2793%
10/05: 5.3046%
10/02: 5.2706%
10/01: 5.2407%
09/30: 5.2849%
08/31: 4.7500%
07/31: 4.7347%
06/30: 4.4652%
05/29: 4.4355%
04/30: 4.3706%
03/31: 4.3166%
02/27: 3.9375% before US attacked Iran.
Today, US 2-yr was down to 4.5876% to close on 10/30.
Closes:
10/30: 4.5876%
10/29: 4.5979%
10/28: 4.6975%
10/27: 4.7369%
10/26: 4.7159%
10/23: 4.6818%
10/22: 4.6396%
10/21: 4.8060%
10/20: 4.7761%
10/19: 4.7719%
10/16: 4.7083%
10:15: 4.7382%
10:14: 4.7975%
10/13: 4.7890%
10/12: Columbus Day holiday
10/09: 4.7869%
10/08: 4.7577%
10/07: 4.7682%
10/06: 4.7975%
10/05: 4.8122%
10/02: 4.8247%
10/01: 4.7914%
09/30: 4.8770%
08/31: 4.3415%
07/31: 4.2912%
06/30: 4.1723%
05/29: 4.0041%
04/30: 3.8689%
03/31: 3.7930%
02/27: 3.3749% before US attacked Iran.
Thx @business #oott
Gold +$25 to $3,900 in tonight's trading to 7:55pm ET. On Friday, Gold was -$147 to $3,875 to close on 10/30: This is the lowest close since the US attacked Iran on 02/28, when Gold was $5,279 to close on 02/27.
Thx @business #oott
Gold decline was one of the negative market stories today.
Gold was -$147 to $3,875 to close on 10/30: This is the lowest close since the US attacked Iran on 02/28, Gold was $5,279 to close on 02/27.
Closes:
10/30: $3,875
10/29: $4,022
10/28: $4,067
10/27: $4,060
10/26: $4,017
10/23: $3,996
10/22: $4,025
10/21: $4,141
10/20: $4,125
10/19: $4,141
10/16: $4,166
10/15: $4,171
10/14: $4,105
10/13: $4,161
10/12: $4,172
10/09: $4,194
10/08: $4,132
10/07: $4,111
10/06: $4,164
10/05: $4,139
10/02: $4,141
10/01: $4,178
09/30: $4,182
08/31: $4,437
08/28: $4,455
07/31: $4,046
06/30: $4,008
05/29: $4,540
04/30: $4,618
03/31: $4,668
02/27: $5,279
Thx
@business
#oott
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
No surprise, 9.9 millions less Cdns travelling to US post Trump's Q1/25 tariffs and 51st state are key reason for why US tourism had its first deficit since 1999.
Senator @CortezMasto on Joint Economic Committee report "Under Trump, Declining Travel and Tourism is Hitting Local Economies Throughout the United States." "The report tells us that international tourism to the United States fell sharply in 2025. We saw the number of jobs in the hotel and lodging sector nationwide drop for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 (except for 2020, when the pandemic hit). The report also informs us that America’s travel sector posted a nearly $14 billion trade deficit in 2025, the first deficit in that sector since data collection began in 1999. Importantly, the report tells us why this is all happening. Instead of lowering costs “on Day 1” like Trump promised, one of the first things he did was impose blanket tariffs on our allies and trading partners, such as Canada. Canadian visitors are our top international market, and we’re losing them. According to the JEC report, last year the United States saw an overall drop of 9.9 million Canadian visitors compared with the year before."
lasvegassun.com/news/2026/ma…
Canadians return trips to the US are still down ~25% vs pre Trump tariff/51st state in Q1/25. But are up YoY for the 5th consecutive month in Aug.
Canadians return trips to US were +9.3% YoY in Aug driven by car trips +10.5% YoY and air trips +4.8% YoY.
But still down big vs pre-Trump tariff/51st state in Q1 25. Aug 2026 return trips from the US were -23.2% vs Aug 2024.
Thx @StatCan_eng
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Vortexa's 1st estimates of crude oil floating storage for 10/30 as posted early this morning.
Note I didn't look at Vortexa last weekend so don't know how the initial 10/23 estimates were revised this week.
Total -12.23 mmb WoW to 75.35 mmb on 10/30. Floating storage was over 100 mmb consistently up until 09/04 and 2 of the last 3 weeks have been below 80 mmb.
Middle East +0.87 mmb WoW to 23.55 mmb on 10/30. With the continued US/Iran standoff and tankers moving out to some degree via going dark and US escorts, Middle East has generally been around 25 mmb.
Asia -8.44 mmb WoW to 18.56 mmb on 10/30. Asia hit 66.62 mmb on 07/31, dropped quickly thereafter. The last 9 wks have been below 30 mmb incl 4 wks below 20 mmb, which is by far the lowest levels since US attacked Iran.
Note the Sat am estimates are Vortexa's initial estimates at the Fri floating storage and get revised either up or down over the weekend and thru the week.
Thx @vortexa @business safgroup.ca #oott
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Western Haynesville looks big potential but needs $4 gas to develop.
Over next 4-6 yrs, Expand Energy expects Haynesville will need to grow by ~5 bcf/d to meet the demand. Expand Energy,
It's why they created the option in a place like Western Haynesville BUT that play needs >$4 gas to develop.
In Q&A, was asked about Western Haynesville given the state data showing industry trending to ~2 bcfs per thousand lateral feet. COO replies "
If I just recap what we’ve done this year, we have one horizontal production well online. We drilled a second appraisal well about 15 miles to the north. What we have is a resource-dense reservoir. It has a lot of the characteristics you would look for in a shale reservoir in terms of it being significantly overpressure. They have a really thick interval, but it’s deep. When it’s deep, it means it’s going to be more complex to develop. I still think there’s a lot to be learned. I think we’ve proven through the years with our experience in the Haynesville, the ability to go unlock value from these highly complex reservoirs. It is a high-cost reservoir today.
It does not compete within our portfolio in the near term, just given the strength of our inventory in Louisiana and really across the entire portfolio for that matter. In terms of how you might peg a breakeven, I think we think about it as this place is going to need greater than $4 gas right now in order to compete. We’re happy to be very methodical about how we appraise it. We like the call option that it creates for us, especially in light of the growing demand that we see across the U.S. Gulf Coast, East Texas, whether that’s LNG, it’s data centers, industrial demand. We think there’s going to be a call on gas for it. We’ll be methodical. We expect to drill probably two wells in 2027 there."
Thx @Investingcom #oott #NatGas #LNG
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Back to contraction.
China "official" manufacturing PMI for Oct was 49.3 vs est 49.9. Back to contraction after modest expansion of Sept 50.01. Two contractions of Aug 49.8 and July 49.2. After four months of modest expansion with June 50.3, May, 50.0, Apr 50.3 and Mar 50.4.
Oct 49.3 vs est 49.9
Sept 50.1
Aug 49.8
July 49.2
June 50.3
May 50.0
Apr 50.3
Mar 50.4
Feb 49.0
Jan 49.3
Dec 50.1
Nov 49.2
Oct 49.0
Sept 49.8
Aug 49.4
July 49.3
June 49.7
May 49.5
Apr 49.0
Mar 50.5
Feb 50.2
Jan 49.1
Dec 50.1
Nov 50.3
Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI for smaller, more export oriented companies is coming tomorrow night.
Thx @business #OOTT
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Iran Supreme Leader says any threat must be met with an immediate & effective response, without geographical limitations, targets to incl all US/Israel targets within range, IRGC will determine when to stop retaliation.
His Telegraph posts.
"Any level or type of threat must be met with an immediate and effective response, without geographical limitations". Note this is his 👇short post with the missile picture.
".. the "target bank" be updated to ensure that the full spectrum of the American-Zionist enemy’s tangible and intangible assets are brought within the reach of the Armed Forces."
"Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei stated explicitly: Should the enemies initiate further military or terrorist attacks, it is the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic and the Iranian nation who will determine the timing and conditions for their conclusion."
#oott
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Warmer than normal Nov.
#1 worry for #NatGas investors I talk to remains the fear for the Super El Nino to bring a much warmer than normal winter to Lower 48 & Canada.
Yesterday's NOAA 30-day temperature forecast calls for warmer than normal temps across most of the Lower 48.
#oott #NatGas #LNG
Negative Chinese consumer indicator.
Chinese consumer for Geely domestic car sales collapsing with Oct -23.5% YoY and YTD Oct -23.3% YoY. Luckily, Geely exports in are rapidly accelerating with Oct +157.8% YoY and YTD Oct +167.9% YoY.
Reminder Geely specifies BEV & PHEV sales so have backed out the rest from the total sales to be Other (ie. assumed to be ICE).
Geely provides split of Oct car sales for domestic vs export. But does not provide the split of export sales by BEV vs PHEV vs Others. And have assumed all exports are BEV and PHEV.
Total car sales incl BEV, PHEV, ICE:
Oct +1.0% YoY to 310,183.
YD Oct +2.8% YoY to 2,545,664
Domestic car sales incl ICE.
Oct: -23.5% YoY to 203,030 & 65.%% share of total sales vs 86.5%.
YTD Oct: -23.3% YoY to 1640,841 & 64.5% share of total sales vs 86.4%.
Export car sales :
Oct: +157.8% YoY or +65,585 to 107,153 & 34.5% share of total vs 13.5%.
YTD Oct: +167.9% YoY or +567,127 to 904,23 & 35.5% share of total sales vs 13.6%.
Total BEV sales incl export:
Oct +43.1% YoY to 140,758 & 45.4% share vs 32.0%
YTD Oct +6.9% YoY to 953,383 & 37.5% share vs 36.0%.
Total PHEV sales incl export:
Oct -6.7% YoY to 74,238 & 23.9% share vs 25.9%.
YTD Oct +29.6% YoY to 587,977 & 23.1% share vs 18.3%.
See my 👇table.
#OOTT
Negative Chinese consumer indicator.
Chinese domestic consumer BYD car sales are collapsing at Oct -11.3% YoY and YTD Oct -28.8% YoY. Luckily, BYD exports are rapidly accelerating at +102.8% in Oct and +93.9% in YTD Oct.
BYD does not provide split of NEV export sales by BEV vs PHEV.
Domestic car sales:
Oct: -11.3% YoY or -40,021 to 312,931 cars & 64.8% share of total sales vs 80.8%.
YTD Oct: -28.8% YoY or -827,227 to 2,047,515 cars & 57.5% of total sales vs 78.6%..
Export car sales:
Oct: +102.8% YoY or +86,290 to 170,194 cars & 35.2% share of total vs 19.2%.
YTD Oct: +93.9% YoY or +733,178 to 1,514,154 cars & 42.5% of total sales vs 21.4%.
Total Oct sales (incl export):
BEV: +37.4% YoY to 305,743 & 63.3% share vs 50.9%.
PHEV: -17.2% YoY to 177,382 & 36.7% share vs 49.1%.
Total YTD Oct sales (incl export):
BEV: +5.9% YoY to 1,935,700 & 54.3% share vs 50.0%.
PHEV: -11.0% YoY to 1,625,969 & 45.7% share vs 50.0%.
See my 👇table.
#OOTT
Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
🇷🇺 Russia just lost another giant refinery, at least for now.
Ukrainian drones set Lukoil’s Kstovo plant on fire overnight.
It processes about 17m tonnes of crude a year, roughly 340,000 barrels a day.
It’s Russia’s 4th largest refinery, and reportedly the 3rd hit in 3 days, after Novokuybyshevsk and Ufa.
The fire was at the crude distillation units, where every barrel starts.
Locals report queues at petrol stations.
Russia’s refineries now run about 3.8m barrels a day, down from 6.5m, the IEA says.
In July, Moscow halted diesel exports.
Every Russian barrel that isn’t refined is diesel the world has to find somewhere else.
That’s the gap Western refiners are filling and it’s why they’re making record money.
In my latest article I show how much of Shell, TotalEnergies and bp’s $ 28.4bn Q3 profit came from refining, and who gained the most: themerchantsnews.substack.co…
