Investing, mostly. The longer version is at https://nitter.gq/t.co/aVFT25nefY
Boston, MA
Joined January 2014
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Brian Coughlin retweeted
$EWZ -26% Brazil election upset rattles markets as Lula clings to power @seekingalpha
Brian Coughlin retweeted
No horse in the race, but baba has the balance sheet, geopolitical support and technical know-how to both develop their own chips and build their own datacenter in western aligned jurisdictions. There is a reason they are allowed to fab at TSMC when most other players can’t.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Just running some $SE math. Open invitation to poke holes in it.
Fully Diluted Mkt Cap: $52b
Net Cash (after leases): $5b
Ecommerce: $142b in GMV. Assume 30% isn't real economic activity because of refunds/ brushing.
At a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin, which I think is conservative, that is $1.5b.
Sea Monee LTM EBIT $1B
Garena $1.5b EBIT
Add in about -$750m of other service losses and unallocated expenses. Then taxed at 32%.
Comes out to 21x earnings.
Last quarter total revenue's grew +48% y/y.
Keep in mind if we assume the higher EBIT/ GMV margin, then growth in that segment would be less, but a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin is generally not a "fully monetized" ecomm margin, so there is still room for growth investment in that figure.
Also Garena can be a bit volatile and there is still an open question on long term credit risk for Sea Monee.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Bought quite a bit of $SE today. I was waiting for this.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
🚨HOLY. Business Insider obtained internal Amazon emails projecting $5 BILLION in Nvidia GB300 racks deliveries in August, then roughly $3 BILLION EVERY MONTH.
Some AWS data centers have room for the racks but NOT enough power to turn them on. Equipment is being staged in warehouses, while Amazon takes ownership earlier, tying up cash before deployment.
At an internal September staff meeting, AWS CFO John Felton joked to infrastructure chief Prasad Kalyanaraman: "You've taken us free cash flow negative as a company, so congratulations."
AWS's infrastructure chief expects Amazon's free cash flow to remain negative for 'the next couple of years or so.'
RT @Sino_Market: 🇨🇳#China Economic activity data:
3Q GDP 4.6% y/y, [Est.4.4%]
1️⃣Sept retail sales 1.1% y/y [Est.0.6%]
2️⃣Sept industrial o…
Brian Coughlin retweeted
China Moves to Prop Up Stocks With Selling Curbs, Buybacks
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Former VP of Finance at Beacon Roofing on vendor rebates as the real margin at $QXO
Brian Coughlin retweeted
$QXO is trading below book value, which seems pretty ridiculous to me looking a few years out.
Higher rates could give Jacobs better acquisition prices. Lower rates would help demand. I like it here either way.
I’m long.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Seems like PE 20 is what Buffett thinks is a fair price for a gr8 business.
“maybe the day will come when they can buy it at 20 times earnings and if they can I hope they go out and borrow a lot of money to buy a ton of it at those”
“GEICO, I think we paid 20 times earnings”
Brian Coughlin retweeted
In all seriousness, it is kind of hilarious everyone is fixating on the ARR metric of a share loser to gauge the health of the AI trade.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Are expectations for $BABA still too low?
coughlincap.com/p/alibaba-ar…
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Chinese stocks did another V-shaped intraday reversal today, the second time in 3 trading days. If no incremental policies are expected, market stability around 3,800 will be a concrete measure of the government's performance.
The level of ~3,800 should be a dependable bottom - at least in the bear term. $FXI $KWEB $BABA $CQQQ $EWH $YINN $YANG
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Brian Coughlin retweeted
All-time insanely bad take.
Remind me in five years if any AI slop is on par with an Elden Ring/GTA.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Anthropic is offering a 145k salary for a personal assistant in London.
Responsibilities include:
"Scheduling and managing calendars for leader(s) and their organization"
"Building and maintaining organizational systems for tracking and managing inbound requests"
"Managing the leader's inbox and communications with precise attention to detail"
"Handling travel logistics"
Somebody should really build some sort of tech tool that can handle this stuff autonomously.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
This is misleading. The discontinuation applies only to specific older versions. The platform continues to support newer models (such as the DeepSeek-v4 series, GLM-5.x, Kimi-k3, MiniMax-M2.5, etc.); users can migrate directly to the native vendor APIs or continue using the newer versions available on Bailian.