Ameya Deosthali differentiated insights for value investing Business Enquiries : [email protected]

earth
Joined August 2024
My take on position sizing , very less spoken about when it comes to process building Understanding this opens up lot more non linearity of gains
My take on position sizing , hope some of you may find it useful
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CarTrade Tech , many will understand today , why I had written an exit note below in Jan early this year , at that time many were hyping , but now a year returns are now close to 0 Selling at right time is equally important , and not getting into the hype
Cartrade Tech Q3FY26 results , flat numbers QOQ , decent set YOY , I think after making a good 4 x we are now booking out and exiting at 2450 , done really well for us disc: invested and biased at 860 from more than a year now exiting ! , no fresh reco or financial advice
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CarTrade Tech , many will understand today , why I had written an exit note below in Jan early this year , at that time many were hyping , but now a year returns are now close to 0 Selling at right time is equally important , and not getting into the hype
Cartrade Tech Q3FY26 results , flat numbers QOQ , decent set YOY , I think after making a good 4 x we are now booking out and exiting at 2450 , done really well for us disc: invested and biased at 860 from more than a year now exiting ! , no fresh reco or financial advice
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Aflibercept + Yesintek+ Insulin incremental is going to be a large volume coming H2 , you can read my below note The global aflibercept market size was valued at approximately $8.3 billion to $8.8 billion, with U.S. sales alone for the reference drug (Eylea) reaching roughly $5.89 billion and EU annual sales hitting about $1.8 billion. Biocon targets this high-value ophthalmology segment through its biosimilar Yesafili (aflibercept). Read my annual report notes below
Biocon Annual report , reading this one today to see how the story is building up 1) Syngene secured the first global phase 3 trial and expanded ADC capabilities through new GMP bioconjugation , @kiranshaw in her latest interview has acknowledged the mistakes made with syngene as well as how a new management could turn around this asset in the next fiscal ( Peter Bains to Siddharth Mittal transition , I think great for the company also , but it is to be seen how they turnaround ) 2)disease burden shifts toward chronic conditions. Biologics are now central to treatment, accounting for one-third of dispensed medicines and over half of R&D investments in 2025. With 45 biologics losing exclusivity, this opens a USD 300 billion biosimilars opportunity, globally 3)R&D investment remains in the range of 7–9% of revenues, balancing innovation with financial discipline. 4) They are finally talking specifically of executing a ROCE positive growth as well Yesintek market share, Aflibercept , and Insulin Delta remains key monitorable , along with the elephant in the room , Syngene!
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Biocon : My thesis for why things mught be turning here , wrote in June this year
Biocon, my latest thoughts and Why things might be turning this year The elephant may be able to dance , there is a clear tactical shift in how management is talking and the re focus on aligning to the path of profitable growth that may see a comeback post a very painful last few years Quoting the management ( Q4FY26 concall ) "We are now moving from a phase of integration and investment to one focused on execution, operating leverage and value creation. From a capital and investment perspective, the heavy lifting is largely done and behind us. Over the past few years, we have invested materially to build global scale capabilities and capacity, particularly in biosimilars, insulins, peptides and complex generics. As we stand today, this major investment phase is substantially complete. The emphasis now is on improving utilization, expanding margins and driving steady improvement in return on capital employed" Now focusing on sweating the assets , generate cash and focus on reduction in interest costs Now how will this happen ? They have a very strong launch pipeline that is going into FY27 where H2 they may start to see tangible gains from it from an EBITDA point of view Liraglutide Approvals in this Quarter , Yesintek ( Biosimilar to stelara which is a very expensive drug ) is also seeing increased traction across the channel Bosaya and Aukelso also launched , will keep seeing how the sales data comes why I think it is worth seeing because , Biosimilars good launches have happened , generics is improving , and they say syngene worst is over And these business interest me where there is a decade of frustrated shareholders with 0 returns ,because the odds are in favor to make money if things actually turn Also I have done the mapping of the Global Biosimilars market , top players , expected growth for FY27 , drugs in wave phase analysis and launches pipeline for Biocon in the next 2 years Mapping some global players , relative incremental growth as well source: internal research
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Acutaas chemicals , from the time it was called Ami organics, a much smaller company in November 2024 to today what a journey it’s been some scale beyond expectations , this was one of those over the last 2 years
AMI ORGANICS 🟢🟢, great numbers with good margin growth and strong management commentary, now I would want to see if the supplier is starting to do well , see the listed players in the API buyers , clearly there is increasing odds of a positive cycle ( CIPLA , Laurus , hetero )
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Aarti Pharmalabs , one quarter will see cost escalations because of new capex , so keep that in mind , this year there will be one quarter of new capex cost escalations to start kicking in so factor those costs in for maybe Q2 might be weaker , but if we remove that one cost step up function quarter , the next 2 years visibilty remains strong and trajectory is pivoting here , from API xanthine to CMDO tides as well We have been tracking this story in detail , can refer to my older tweets as well from a year Again this is along expected lines , only question is how much ..., excited for the overall story disc: no reco , biased from lower levels
Aarti Pharmalabs , reading the 2026 Annual report and my thoughts and notes : 1) 9000MTPA Xanthine capacity now , largest Ex china and 3 rd largest globally with 15-20% Market share , after CPSC Group and Shandong in China 2) 21 CDMO customers , 35 commercial projects , 19 under development , below tweet have done my latest on the DMF tracker on where incremental filings are happening ( Aug-19 below tweet) 3) Employee count 2100 to 2400 this year , expect this to increase , we have seen some very good top level hiring in the research side from Aarti in this last quarter , lot of expertise in top talent has been added as per Pharma hiring trends 4) Capabilties : Continuous manufacturing, flow chemistry and bio-catalysis reaction, HPAPI (cytotoxic/oncology) and corticosteroids development and manufacturing, cryogenic reactors 5) R&D at 7.4% versus 5% Last year , 5 new patents filed this year , Dedicated block 2 at Atali planned for specific CDMO projects, with ground-breaking planned in Q3 FY 2026-27 and at a targeted completion within 12-15 months • R&D investment initiated in TIDES, including peptides and oligonucleotides, to expand long-term portfolio capabilitie Again so far they are delivering well , this year there will be one quarter of new capex cost escalations to start kicking in so factor those costs in for maybe Q2 might be weaker , but if we remove that one cost step up function quarter , the next 2 years visibilty remains strong and trajectory is pivoting here , from API xanthine to CMDO tides as well We have been tracking this story in detail , can refer to my older tweets as well from a year disc : this is not investment advice/financial reccomendation , do your own due diligence , I am biased here from lower levels so take my opinion with salt and do your own research as well
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Aarti Pharma , Laurus , Indegene , Styrenix lot of core coverage earnings coming out in the coming 1-2 days , expect lot of updates and trackers , we know where numbers are expected to be weak and strong!
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Gestation periods for capex to go from validation to commercial , utilisation ramp from 30% to 70% , OEM classification cycle starting to convert to commercial , incrementally highre yielding capex, capabilty depth that is not driven by customer only but also self These things I love hearing , these patterns repeat with credible managements , we need to be prepared to see them
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If you are buying a theme at a higher valuation just because it's peers are sustaining that , you might look very smart for 6 months , but will loose over 1 year , all of us have learnt that the hard way Just because a peer is valued at 55xPE hence this company also deserves it , slippery slope
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Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
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I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads Its hard work , but rewarding
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Don’t fall for commentary based reactive research , lot of people on X actually just are doing commentary on the market without any individual ideation or research depth Avoid this long term as it keeps you engaged for sure but never creates value
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I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads Its hard work , but rewarding
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Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
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A great company was once a good company that found a way to pivot into better value chains and increased product/process efficiencies and participate in higher value products using their expertise and evolve when required against odds That's why I always look for companies that are transitioning the nature of the business using cash flows from original business to participate into more value add and higher value chain , this is what causes major trajectory shift in earnings , and hence makes the most money for us , this rate of change !
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Lots of sectoral notes also coming your way as more peers results get declared , so we get to see the industry specific trends , both in optimistic and sectors where peak pessimism is playing out , lot more coverage earrings coming next week as well
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Dynamatic Tech, what a journey it has been , especially from the time they started , as I titled my note on the company as well " Daring to dream against all odds, the risks worth taking" , congrats on what you have built and forged over the years @UTobyM , would love to meet you someday and learn ! And folks if you want to read my note I wrote in Feb on the journey of Dynamatic from 1990's and what they are building , check the link below : valueequityin.substack.com/p…
Forty years completed at @DynamaticTech. ​Times were very different when I started working. Capital was scarce in pre-liberalisation India, markets were under-developed, and OEMs held monopolistic buying power over small suppliers. ​Day-to-day survival for a small tractor-parts maker was tough. That’s why we ventured deep into India’s rural hinterland—to build our own independent aftermarket for hydraulic pumps, directly at the grassroots.
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OneSource Pharma , good set of numbers , Usually I like listening to this call not only for the company but Neeraj and team give very good market dynamics on GLP, biologics and more , so will be posting my key notes as well here by EOD No reco
OneSource Pharma , promoter has bought 2 lakh shares in this dip yesterday , interesting
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EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids
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EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids
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