A few post-market thoughts. Whether I'm right or wrong, I want to put my ideas out there. If you have a different perspective or a better take, feel free to leave a comment Chip stocks broadly rebounded today, but NVDA was notably absent from the rally. We all know the news behind its decline. I'm not interested in gossip. Instead, I want to look at this story from a capital-market perspective: why could this news put pressure on NVDA share price, and is the stock still worth holding?
NVDA decline today was about much more than just the rumors. What capital markets are really worried about is the possibility that government authorities could use this incident as a reason to investigate NVDA, potentially triggering another round of sanctions or sales restrictions Whether Jensen Huang had an affair with someone is largely irrelevant. What matters is that this woman must not be associated with espionage or China-related national security concerns. Until the facts become clear, investors are choosing to sell. And that's right markets don't like uncertainty
Now, let's talk about whether NVDA is still worth holding. Of course, once the market moves past this story in a couple of weeks and concerns about an AI bubble begin to fade, investors may turn their attention back to NVDA But here's one thing to keep in mind: if you're looking to buy NVDA at a lower price, it may be worth watching how things unfold over the coming days Personally, I'd much prefer to see NVDA below $160 A price decline driven by this kind of news doesn't necessarily reflect a deterioration in the company's fundamentals. It's not directly related to demand for its chips or the long-term growth prospects of the semiconductor industry
WTI crude oil has fallen below $90, helping gold climb back above $4,100. This level now serves as strong support for today, with resistance at $4,150. The preferred trading strategy is to look for buying opportunities on dips
On Friday, we laid out an optimistic scenario for the stock market. For the Nasdaq, the key level to watch in today's rebound is whether it can reclaim its 200-day moving average. For the S&P 500, the critical level is whether it can recover half of Thursday's losses
Most high-profile stocks are trading higher premarket. AMD is up more than 3%, Amazon is up nearly 3%, Alphabet Class A is up nearly 2%, TSMC and SpaceX are up more than 1%, and Apple is up nearly 1%. Tesla is slightly higher, while Nvidia is down nearly 5%. Intel and Micron are both down nearly 1%
Israeli media reports that Iran appears to have dropped its demand to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, sending international oil prices down more than 3% An investigation has been launched following allegations of an affair involving Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. SpaceX is projected to reach an annualized revenue run rate of $500 billion next year RKLB, ASTS, HIMS, and OXY are all scheduled to report earnings after the market closes
This period has also been the most deeply conflicted for me. On one hand, although I cut my stock exposure early, my equity holdings could not entirely escape this broad market downturn. On the other hand, my short-term trades such as gold have performed exceptionally well, with profits more than offsetting the drag on the stock side
Yet, seeing followers who trusted me and bought those stocks take severe hits because they failed to trim positions in time breaks my heart. Of course, I could chalk these losses up to a systemic macro sell-off, or casually tell them: 'I repeatedly warned everyone to de-risk on Monday you simply chose not to listen.' But saying that accomplishes nothing beyond shirking responsibility, nor will it recover a single dollar of their losses
What frustrates and puzzles me most is that the more urgently I try to show them a proactive path to recover losses, the more some instinctively resist and doubt.
Many would rather remain passively trapped in bleeding stocks, clinging to false hope for a breakeven, than step slightly outside their comfort zone to use high-certainty, highly liquid markets like gold swings for defense and hedging. This is perhaps the hardest cognitive gap to bridge between retail investors and professional traders. Nevertheless, since you have chosen to trust me, I refuse to leave anyone wandering in the storm. Throughout this prolonged market shakeout, I will continue to prioritize risk management above all else and do everything in my power to help you recover your losses using more flexible tools
Of course, I firmly believe that investment inherently allows for differing perspectives. Regrettably, however, many have a habit of turning intellectual market debates into personal attacks, even eager to watch someone fall from grace. When the market undergoes a sharp drawdown and everyone is put to the test, mocking others' mistakes does not make anyone a better investor.
In the end, the market will teach everyone humility. No one can be right forever; it is only through setbacks that one truly understands the value of tolerance.
Thank you to all the rational voices out there. Next week, I will still be right here, continuing down my investment journey with authenticity and respect for the market. Have a great weekend, everyone!
Following yesterday's oversold decline, the market is poised for a rebound today. However, we need to monitor the strength of the intraday bounce if we see another intraday spike and reversal, it indicates that the sell-off is not yet over and the decline will continue next week. We can leverage the rebound in the first half of the session to go long on SPY and QQQ
Nvidia fell over 9% yesterday, marking its largest single-day drop since September 2024, before bouncing over 4% in pre-market trading. MU plummeted over 17% yesterday its biggest decline since the 2008 financial crisis and rose over 8% pre-market. However, judging by the scale of the pre-market rebound, the momentum remains weak; we need to see a convincing bullish engulfing pattern to confirm that the sell-off has come to an end
The Washington Sun: Democrats reportedly plan to investigate Apple, Meta, and Elon Musk's companies. Pre-market trading saw data center and hardware stocks rebound, with BE and CRWV surging over 10%, and TER jumping over 9%
As market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to wane, bond traders are bracing for Friday's October employment report, with the US Treasury market expected to extend its gains. A global equities sell-off has driven investors into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, pushing yields down to their lowest levels since early September, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading at 4.82% on Friday. In principle, this environment is bullish for gold prices
We can never control market movements or dictate when prices will rise or fall. However, we can control our response when the market crashes
1. If you know the market is approaching a bottom after a crash, the solution is simple: double down, buy the dip, and wait for the rebound. Once market conditions improve, your gains will be even greater
2. If you know the market is merely in the middle of a downtrend, you sell, then buy back in at a lower level at the very least, preventing further losses
Both responses to a market crash rest on a single premise: you have absolute clarity on where the market stands. But who can truly achieve that? Who possesses the ability to foresee the future? No one
Long-time followers will find this familiar. That’s right this is exact advice I shared on October 22nd. Word for word, I am sharing it again. Looking back now, do you see the value of these insights?
When a position is down by more than 30%, most people resort to a single tactic: doing absolutely nothing. Why? Because you assume that what falls deep enough must eventually rise, even if you don't know when. You assume that because a stock made you money before, it will do so again, even if you aren't sure whether institutional capital will select it during the next rally
Some even refuse to sell during a crash simply because they believe in the company and have developed an emotional attachment to it! Remember, we are here to make money. Mature traders must strip emotion out of their execution, right?
There is only one correct approach the one institutional firms rely on: hedging! You can short indices (SPY/QQQ), short individual stocks you hold, or seek cross-market opportunities just as we went long on crude oil and short on gold over the past few weeks (before adjusting our directional bias recently). Yet, most retail traders don't know how to do this. So, what should you do instead?
Opt for a simpler path: reduce your positions, follow market momentum, and execute short-term trades in assets you understand. Pick instruments with clear trends like crude oil, which exhibited a classic bullish setup this week, or gold, which shifted from a range-bound environment into a bearish trend. Trading the cleanest trends with flexible execution equals generating consistent cash flow in a bear market
The benefit of this approach is that once the market truly bottoms out, you'll have ample capital ready to deploy into high-quality companies. Take SPCX as an example: many bought in out of admiration for Elon. There's nothing wrong with liking the company, but many kept adding to their positions above $150. If the price drops to $100 which would be an exceptionally attractive valuation the tragedy is having no cash left to add
However, members in our group who have been following our short-term gold trades never have to worry about this. We are actively building up the capital needed to buy quality stocks at the bottom
Meanwhile, we have another blueprint: beyond accumulating prime stocks, we will allocate a significant portion of capital to TQQQ. If the Nasdaq falls another 5% to 10% (which is entirely possible), I will lead everyone into positioning in TQQQ. Historical data shows that whenever Nasdaq drawdowns exceed 20%, TQQQ typically rebounds by over 60%. This represents a high-conviction opportunity, so keep cash in reserve. This setup offers a far higher win rate than gambling on individual stock bounces
As long as you are in this group, I won't just warn you of downside risks (whether you listen is up to you), nor will I blindly preach doom and gloom. Instead, when genuine market opportunities emerge, I will lead you into high-probability bottom-fishing strategies. Combining individual equities + TQQQ + SPY + Gold, a 10% market rebound can easily translate into an 80% portfolio return or higher
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. But right now is not the time for greed. When even the most steadfast bulls lose hope, that will be our signal to step in and buy the bottom
Today's sharp market sell-off will trigger a major issue: institutional quantitative funds will once again hit their passive liquidation thresholds. This is exactly why I urged you not to buy the dip. Look at the current picture: crypto is plummeting, gold is dropping sharply, WTI crude has pushed back up to 90, and the VIX has spiked back near 20 a clear signal that panic selling is far from over
Never catch a falling knife now is one of those times. Just as we passed on that gold rebound earlier, we are also choosing not to chase the recent decline. These movements are driven purely by sentiment and lack any predictable pattern. It is far better to wait on the sidelines than to enter the market rashly. Remember, focus on trades with high conviction; you aren't missing out on anything
On gold the pop over the last couple of days comes down to falling oil and dropping short-term yields. Most traders slept on the rally from 3800 to 4100, but we kept trading it and locked in solid profits. Today's resistance is at 4150 and support sits at 4100. Look to buy the dips
Recent news surrounding AI stocks has been predominantly negative. Do not assume a rebound will automatically follow once the bad news passes; institutional capital is focused on high valuations that have yet to be fully digested before a true market bottom and reversal can take place. If you are holding deep losses and unsure how to manage your position, send me a private message for tailored advice
Regarding the stock market, I maintain yesterday's view: yesterday's rebound was merely driven by the mid-term election results combined with a technical bounce after Tuesday's oversold conditions. The late-session drop clearly indicates that capital chose to exit during the rally rather than hold, implying that this downturn is far from over. Intraday rebounds are your opportunities to cut losses and exit
$CGNX Q3 earnings report isn't actually bad under the hood: bottom line earnings grew significantly, margins improved, cash flow remained robust, the dividend was raised, and the balance sheet stays solid. However, the market prices future growth, not past performance. The sequential contraction implied by the Q4 guidance, along with the relatively muted nature of the Q3 "beat," raised investor concerns over high-velocity growth. In the absence of new growth catalysts, high-multiple stocks are exceptionally sensitive to any cracks in the growth narrative. Consequently, even a report that was better than expected overall couldn't escape a sharp drop in stock price. In today's market environment, even AAPL faces this exact same fate
As for me, I still have no intention of giving up my position, but I won't be adding to it in the near term either. What I'm waiting for is a stabilized market environment once the bad news is fully priced in and flushed out, the market will re-rate the stock. I remain confident that it will eventually bounce back above 70