The world’s worst YT Weatherman, Record Holder Of Covering The Most Tornado Warnings in 2023 and 2024 Developer Of Weather Circle
Joined March 2017
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Major outbreaks in the winter/late fall are pretty rare, but they do happen. What happens more, though, probably 10 to 20 times more, is seeing a big system 7+ days out, and the instability and the lapse rates fall apart in the last 3 days. Don't trust any hype around this yet...
Alright so the SPC is not hurrying to push 15% or anything the yet for next week based on what they are seeing from the GFS and EURO. As stated too from what I said, instability will be key and GFS is showing a more weaker system than the EURO but in both cases it's down to the instability. Instability, instability, instability is the lone kicker for just how big this goes.
Both models still are iffy about it for GFS/EURO but it won't take much and hence the SPC is stated in here it's gonna be down to the trends. They are not denying this is a robust system otherwise and better moisture returns are now showing. It's gonna be truly down to the instability on this almost March/April type system otherwise cause it's a banger of a system with shear.
Evan Fryberger ☁️ retweeted
NE of Randolph, MN! #mnwx @NWSTwinCities
A severe thunderstorm warning is up. In Minnesota, this is the view of it. With the light sim version. Obviously, I'm working on bigger things in the background, but I thought I'd make this simpler version available to everyone with a circle pro membership
Evan Fryberger ☁️ retweeted
Really cool seeing the weather balloon's path (blue line) going way up, higher than the storms, back on May 16th. This is the big Kansas I-70 dust storm day. I'll have more visuals from this event out soon.
*This is our Event Data Portal, which we'll be releasing soon! Want to make this data as open as possible for everyone to learn from. This is funded by donations and social media revenue form our audience.
@reconwx
Been warning about this for years and with ai anyone can fear monger. No one listened. They just made excuses. Sad to see, weather communication has always been such an important thing to me.
First try, 1km keeps the radar accuracy, 200m is the in-between the scan prediction. As you can see the 1km shows up when the new scan comes in then the 200m comes in. This is the next frame prediction, obviously more work to be done but this is running inside weathercircle.
Evan Fryberger ☁️ retweeted
Westbound to chase supercells and watching these beautiful lenticular clouds over the Organ Mountains near Las Cruces. #nmwx
When talking about what feeds these AI models, the United States produces some of the most dense data. Meaning the Google DeepMind AI model will be more accurate for areas like Europe or the United States. Areas with large scale data scarcity equals less accurate.
I mean a taco seems virtually guaranteed at this a point.
I know this isn't Nick trying to bash the NWS, but I wanted to add my opinion in the mix. I have a soft spot for states that never see tornadoes. Arizona is one of those states and probably top 10 states in terms of lack of tornadoes. What I don't understand is why in these...
Pretty disappointed with the warning aspect of the Overgaard, Arizona, tornado. The tornado warning wasn't issued until 7:02 PM MST, as the tornado was moving through the town.
A tornado warning should've been issued by 6:50 PM MST, as strengthening rotation was already heading toward Overgaard. The supercell wasn't even severe-warned at that point. A severe thunderstorm warning wasn't issued until 6:59 PM MST, when the tornado was likely already ongoing south of Overgaard, with a strong velocity couplet approaching the town.
The opportunity to provide the town with ample warning was there, but it wasn't taken. Several injuries have been reported in Overgaard from the tornado. It's especially disappointing given the known tornado threat today. This wasn't an unexpected event involving a supercell producing a random tornado out of nowhere. The threat was there, and there was an opportunity to get warnings out sooner.
